"The influence of Christianity and the devotion of their Catholics to the Pope remain as strong as ever. Despite their constant demonisation of the Dalai Lama, he is still a highly venerated figure not only in Tibet, but also among the Buddhists of their Mongolia. The influence of Islam amongst the Muslims of not only Xinjiang, but also other areas of China is equally strong. Objective observers admit that Tibet and Xinjiang have made tremendous economic progress during the last 20 years, but this has not weakened the hold of religion on the people. It is said that in the interior areas of Tibet, if a peasant is offered a choice of either an electronic gadget or a picture of the Dalai Lama as a gift, he would without hesitation choose the latter.........If one day there is serious instability in China and if its society comes unstuck, it will, most probably, be not due to political, economic or social causes, but due to the State continuing to come in the way of the religious and spiritual yearnings of the people."
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--Extract from an article written after a visit to China inMay, 2002
God As Threat To National Security
Even though no new major incident of violence has been reported from GreaterTibet since the night of March 18,2008, the Chinese continue to make large-scalearrests and send troop reinforcements to Tibet, Sichuan, Gansu and Qinghai inthe face of calls by pro-independence activists in Greater Tibet and in thediaspora abroad not to allow the Olympic flame to be taken through Tibet to thetop of the Everest. The Chinese were planning to stage this Everest spectacularto show that they have pacified Tibet once and for all . Through their uprisinginside Greater Tibet since March 10, 2008, the Tibetan youth, monks and othershave proved them wrong.
Despite the loss of face already suffered by them, the Chinese have reiteratedtheir determination to take the flame to the top of the Everest and from thereto Beijing. The only modification they have made in their plan is not to allowforeign tourists and journalists to watch the spectacular. The event will becovered only by the Chinese media and by some pro-Beijing journalists from othercountries.
While the Chinese have released details of the proposed passage of the flamethrough other countries, they have not released similar details of its proposedpassage through China, including Tibet. As such, one does not know when it willreach Tibet, when it will be carried to the top of the Everest and when it willbe taken out of Tibet. However, it is noticed they have banned foreigners fromgoing to the foothills of the Himalayas till May 10. Nepal has reportedlyimposed a similar ban at their request till May 10. It is, therefore, likelythat the flame will be in Tibet towards the end of April and the beginning ofMay. One could expect a fresh flare-up of incidents during this period. TheChinese do not want to be taken by surprise this time. They are increasing theirtroop deployments all over Greater Tibet and making preventive arrests. They arelikely to deploy more troops on their borders with India and Nepal. India shouldalso see that the Tibetan refugees do not go to the border areas and provoke aconfrontation with the Chinese border troops.
The current tension in Greater Tibet and Xinjiang has many lessons for theChinese. The first is the serious deficiencies in their intelligence agenciesand physical security apparatus. They did not have any inkling of the uprisingbeing planned by the Tibetans inside and outside Tibet. They were taken bysurprise by the revival of Uighur jihadi sleeper cells in Urumqi, the capital ofXinjiang. Three supporters of the Uighur jihadi movement managed to hoodwinktheir physical security personnel at Urumqi airport on March 7, 2008, three daysbefore the uprising in Lhasa, and allegedly smuggle into a Beijing-boundaircraft an inflammable liquid concealed inside a can of soft drinks.Fortunately, the security staff on board the flight detected them and had themoverpowered before they could cause a fire.
Some years ago, a senior Chinese leader was reported to have told a foreigninterlocutor that he was concerned that while the Chinese intelligence waswell-informed on developments outside China, it was not equally well-informedabout developments inside China. The events in Greater Tibet and Xinjiang provethat this state of affairs continues. The Chinese have been very confident thatthey will be able to provide effective security during the Olympics. One canonly hope that their confidence is well-placed.
A message, which comes out loud and clear from Greater Tibet, is that despitebeing away from Tibet for nearly 50 years now, the Dalai Lama continues tocommand the respect of the Tibetan people inside China. Chinese attempts todemonise him and project him as the problem have not succeeded. A vast majorityof the Tibetan people in China continue to look up to him with undiminishedreverence as their political and spiritual leader. Continued demonisation of HisHoliness by Chinese government and party leaders would prove counter-productiveand make the situation worse. It is time to stop their unrelenting abuse of theDalai Lama and re-establish their lines of communications with him.
His Holiness has expressed his readiness to visit China, if invited, and meetPresident Hu Jintao. The Chinese are unlikely to agree to this in the nearfuture--at least not until the Olympics are over. In the immediate aftermath ofthe uprising, the Chinese would not like to project a soft image of themselves.They had seen how sudden policy swings--particularly in political matters-- byMr. Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin brought about the disintegration of theUSSR.
It is in their interest to seek the co-operation of the Dalai Lama and tobenefit from the respect and influence commanded by him among the Tibetans inorder to seek reconciliation with the Tibetan masses. A stoppage of theiranti-Dalai Lama rhetoric would help them not only internally in Greater Tibet,but also externally in the international community. Unfortunately, the Chineseauthorities continue to suffer from a delusion that if they wait till the deathof the Dalai Lama and manage to manipulate the process of nomination of hissuccessor, their problems in Tibet would be over. This will not happen. One sawhow the appeals issued by the Panchen Lama nominated by them did not make anyimpact on the uprising. Any unwise step by them to nominate their own Dalai Lamawould only further radicalise the Tibetan youth and make them even moreuncontrollable than they are now.
The third message from the uprising is that by solely relying on their securityforces and on the Han settlers for strengthening their hold on Greater Tibet,they have created for themselves a situation similar to what the Soviets hadcreated for themselves in the Baltic States. They forcibly incorporated theminto the USSR and tried to change the demographic complexion of the States bysettling a large number of Russians--many of them ex-servicemen-- in the BalticStates. They got caught in a vicious circle. The more the suppression, the morethe people's anger. The more the people's anger, the more the suppression. Themore the Russian settlers, the more the hatred for them. The more the hatred forthem, the more the Russian settlers. Ultimately, the Soviets had to watchhelplessly as the three Baltic States threw off the Soviet yoke and re-gainedtheir independence. A similar situation has developed in Greater Tibet and coulddevelop in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia.
If the Chinese are wise, they would take note of the growing divide between theHans and the sons of the soil not only in Greater Tibet, but also in Xinjiangand Inner Mongolia. Since the international community recognises Tibet, Xinjiangand Inner Mongolia as parts of China, it cannot object to Chinesecitizens--whatever be their ethnic background-- migrating to other parts ofChina and settling down there. But the state-sponsored resettlement of Hans fromoutside in order to reduce the Tibetans to the status of Red Indians in theirown homeland will not be accepted by the Tibetans and by the world of today. Onehas seen how the Israeli policy of settling Jewish people in the Palestinianterritory under their occupation has boomeranged on them. It is time for Chinato reverse this policy.
Angry sections of Tibetan youth point out that while the Chinese showedaccommodation to the people of Hong Kong and Macao and are prepared to showsimilar accommodation to the people of Taiwan, they are not prepared for anyaccommodation with the Tibetans. Their stand is: "This is all (Tibetanautonomous region as presently constituted) that we can give. Take it or leaveit."
The Chinese refusal to consider any proposal to grant to Tibet a status similarto what they have given to Hong Kong and what they are prepared to grant toTaiwan arises from their fear that a genuinely autonomous Tibet will look up toIndia for inspiration and guidance and not to Beijing. The Chinese fear theexample of the Indian democracy and India's moral stature more than its militarypower. Hence, the Hong Kong formula for Tibet may be a non-starter. One has tothink of other options, which will satisfy the ethnic and religious aspirationsof the Tibetans and at the same time, will be reassuring to the Chinese. Thereis a need for a debate as to what could be the other options for Tibet.
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B. Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. ofIndia, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies,Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies.
