General Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani

Will Kiyani be able to deliver if not Bin Laden and Zawahiri at least otherssuch as Mulla Mohammad Omar, the Amir of the Neo Taliban, Baitullah Mehsud, whois the de facto ruler of South Waziristan, and Maulana FM Radio Fazlullah, thede facto ruler of the Swat Valley?

Kiyani comes to office as the COAS (Chief of the Army Staff) with impeccablecredentials. He has the distinction of being the first Director-General of theInter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to be appointed as the COAS since Pakistanbecame independent in 1947.Ehsanul Haq was also the DG, ISI, before he becamethe Chairman, Chiefs of Staff Committee. Kiyani is the son of a non-commissionedofficer (NCO) of the Army. His humble background as the son of an NCO hasendeared him to the junior ranks of the Army. At a time, when there are signs ofsome demoralisation in the junior ranks fighting against Al Qaeda and otherjihadi organisations in the Pashtun belt, high hopes will be placed on him forreversing the process of demoralisation.

Kiyani is also a non-controversial officer, who had in the past not come tonotice for any dubious association with the Taliban or Al Qaeda or any ofPakistan's fundamentalist organisations. He was liked by the political leaders,who were attracted by his unassuming nature and humble demeanour. A man of fewwords, he is quite a contrast to Musharraf, a braggart. His reputation as anapolitical officer went up during the recent controversy over Musharraf'ssuspension of Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhury of the Pakistan SupremeCourt. Knowledgeable sources said that at the meeting held at Musharraf's officein March, 2007, at which the decision to suspend him was taken, Kiyani was theonly person, who kept quiet and did not utter a word either in support ofMusharraf's decision or in criticism of the Chief Justice. It was also reportedthat he kept the ISI out of this unsavoury controversy and that it was theDirectorate-General of Military Intelligence and the Intelligence Bureau, whichplayed the leading role in the campaign to denigrate the former Chief Justice,which ultimately boomeranged on Musharraf.

Kiyani, who joined the Pakistan Army in 1970, started his career in the BalochRegiment as an infantryman. He did not come to public notice till Mrs. BenazirBhutto, during her first tenure as the Prime Minister (1988-90), chose him asher Deputy Military Secretary. The two have since maintained their personalfriendship despite the ups and downs in her political career.

Kiyani is believed to have a wide network of contacts in the US Armed Forces,but he really attracted the attention of the US' political and militaryleadership at the time of the Indo-Pakistan military confrontation in 2002 afterthe terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament on December 13, 2001. He was theDirector-General, Military Operations (DGMO), at that time and the US wasreportedly impressed by the cool manner in which he handled the crisis.

In September 2003, he was appointed the Corps Commander of the X Corps atRawalpindi. It was the X Corps that had launched the coup of October 1999 whichbrought Musharraf to power. No military coup in Pakistan could be successfulwithout the X Corps being in the forefront of the coup. All military chiefschose their most trusted officer to head it. The fact that Musharraf chose himfor this key post spoke of his confidence in him as a trustworthy officer, whowould do his bidding.

As Corps Commander, Musharraf made him responsible for co-ordinating theinvestigation into the two attempts to assassinate him in Rawalpindi inDecember, 2003. Apart from identifying some of the jihadi terrorists responsiblefor the attempts, Kiyani also managed to establish the involvement of somejunior officers of the Army and the Air Force in the attempts and had themarrested.

In October next year, he was appointed the DG of the ISI and once againimpressed the US by his success in having Abu Faraj al-Libbi, an al Al Qaedaoperative allegedly involved in the attempts to assassinate Musharraf, arrestedin the tribal belt. He was immediately handed over to the US without properlyinterrogating him in connection with the attempts to kill Musharraf. ManyPakistani sources, however, have not accepted the claim of the ISI and that ofthe US that Abu Faraj was the No.3 of Al Qaeda and had masterminded the attemptsto kill Musharraf. Subsequent evidence has not proved their claims.

Even though Kiyani was projected as a highly successful DG of the ISI, factsspeak otherwise. It was during his tenure as the DG of the ISI that the NeoTaliban staged a come-back with a bang, the Pakistan Army practically lostcontrol over the Pashtun belt and Al Qaeda established its sanctuaries inPakistani territory.

The US has strongly backed his elevation as the COAS because of his knownloyalty to Musharraf, his friendship with Benazir Bhutto and its hopes that hewould improve the morale of the Army and vigorously pursue Al Qaeda & co.Its hopes in him may ultimately be belied just as its hopes in Musharraf were.The US has never been a good judge of Pakistanis and particularly of PakistaniArmy officers. Will it be different this time? Let us wait and see.

Since he took over as the Vice-Chief of the Army Staff on October 8, 2007,Kiyani has been co-ordinating the military operations to re-establish the writof the Government over the Swat Valley. He has not been very successful so far.The tribals of the Swat Valley, ably led by Maulana Fazlullah and backed by AlQaeda, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), the Neo Taliban and the Jaish-e-Mohammad(JEM) have been putting up a stiff fight against the Pakistani Army, despite itsuse of helicopter gunships and heavy artillery. Kiyani's policy of over-relyingon helicopter gunships and heavy artillery and avoiding ground confrontationshas already come in for criticism in Pakistani military circles. Faced with thiscriticism, he has only now sent his troops to engage the terrorists in groundconfrontations. Kiyani has promised that he would eject the terrorists from theSwat Valley before the elections and re-establish the writ of the state. If hedoes not succeed, his reputation as the COAS could take a beating.

As the dramatis personae in Islamabad play out the drama, there is a man upthere in the tribal north waiting and watching, hoping that Pakistan and itsnuclear arsenal would ultimately fall into his hands. His name is Osama binLaden. He wears no hats and is not part of the triumvirate, but his threateningshadow will continue to hover over Pakistan till Al Qaeda is defeated andneutralised. That is not for tomorrow.