Desperate Deception?

On September 8, the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA)announced the formation of a People's Consultative Group (PCG) to prepare theground- work for the eventual initiation of talks with the union government. Thegroup, ULFA announced, had nine members and is to be led by writer IndiraGoswami, who has been acting as the mediator between the outfit and the governmentin New Delhi for some time now. The ULFA also requested Rebati Phukan, a formerfootball player from the state, to supplement Goswami's efforts.

A day earlier, the ULFA had announced its desire to form sucha group (an announcement to this effect was made by Goswami) of 'like-mindedpeople not attached to the outfit'. A peep into the profile of some of themembers of the PCG suggests that ULFA has kept its word and has indeedconstituted a 'like minded' group, whose members would form an effectivepressure group to further the objectives of the outfit.

• Mukul Mahanta, an engineer by profession, is a hardcore sympathiser of the outfit, and has worked in the past to garner support for the ULFA and its agenda. In August 2005, Mukul Mahanta wrote on a private web discussion forum, "Join Ulfa, Save Assam, Save Yourself, Save India by becoming Truly Independent".
  

• Lachit Bordoloi heads the Manab Adhikar Sangram Samiti (MASS), a human rights group, which, over the years, has operated as a front organisation for the ULFA. MASS' association with the rebel group is very well documented.
  

• Ajit Bhuyan, is the editor of a vernacular daily Aji, published from Guwahati. Bhuyan is a former chairman of MASS and has been arrested several times under the National Security Act (NSA) for activities connected with ULFA.
  

• Dr Brajen Gogoi, a former executive of Tata Tea in Assam, was arrested in September 1997 for linkages with the ULFA. He played the facilitator when the tea major had financed the medical treatment of the ULFA 'cultural secretary', Pranati Deka.
  

• Hiranya Saikia, referred to as a prominent personality by the ULFA, is the messenger between the outfit and mediator Indira Goswami in Delhi. Saikia is believed to have been delivering the letters written by ULFA chief Paresh Baruah at Goswami's New Delhi residence.
  

• Arup Borbora, son of former Chief Minister of Assam, Golap Borbora, is a lawyer by profession. Arup has participated in several MASS-organised meetings.
  

• Dilip Patgiri is the advisor to the Assam Jatiyatabadi Yuva Chhatra Parishad (AJYCP). Most of the senior leaders of ULFA were originally members of AJYCP before they joined the rebels.
  

• Dignata Konwar, a journalist, functioned as the general secretary of the Jatiya Unnayan Parishad, a now-defunct ULFA front organisation.

The PCG also includes Hyder Hussain, Editor, Pratidin,a pro-ULFA vernacular daily from Guwahati. Rebati Phukan, the new addition tothe facilitator's list, is a distant relative of ULFA chief Paresh Baruah and,in 1991, her efforts to mediate between the rebels and the government werespurned by Baruah.

The formation of PCG comes at a time when the ground work fornegotiations between New Delhi and ULFA, which began almost a year ago inNovember 2004, has progressed little beyond a few rounds of exchange of letters.ULFA's demand for a negotiation process that includes the agenda of sovereigntyfor Assam and the government's insistence that the outfit ceases violence andaccepts unconditional talks, continue to obstruct the beginning of a process ofdialogue.

It appears that ULFA's sudden move is linked to a seriouspredicament its key division, the '28th battalion', is faced with. On August 31,the Army's Tezpur-based III Corps launched counter-insurgency operations in theDibru-Saikhowa National Park area in the Tinsukia district, spread over 756square kilometres with a core zone of 340 square kilometres, following inputsthat a team of 40 militants belonging to the 'battalion' had moved from its basein Myanmar, and were holed up inside the forest area. Within a week, Armypersonnel were successful in encircling the area, capping all exit routes andmaking a steady forward march. The operation produced quick results. Accordingto official claims, three militants were killed, including 'commander' AchintyaSaikia and his female associate, on September 20. Satellite phones, arms anddocuments were recovered from the site of the encounter. Nine ULFA linkmen havealso been arrested and were handed over to the police on September 23. ULFA,however, claims that the toll is much higher, and that twelve of its cadres hadalready been killed by September 13.

Army sources, although tight-lipped over this success, admitthe possibility of 'netting some big fishes' if the operation is continued forsome time. The Army believes that, along with the cadres, a huge cache of armsand ammunition, stockpiled in the park area by the outfit, is up for grabs, andthat a few ULFA camps are now without crucial supply lines. The interception of'Mayday' calls made by the cadres over satellite phones to the ULFA topleadership in Bangladesh has revealed their anxiety over depleting essentialitems and the closing in of the Army.

Following its debacle in Bhutan in December 2003 andcontinuous military onslaughts in several districts of Assam, the '28thbattalion' remains the only major functioning tactical division of the ULFA andis consequently key to its grand strategy and tactical capacity to execute actsof sabotage, particularly in the Upper Assam districts of Tinsukia, Dibrugarhand Sibsagar. The 'battalion' is led by some of the better-trained and motivated'commanders', and is absolutely vital for the outfit to sustain its sporadicattacks. Its neutralisation is also likely to disrupt the functioning of a largenumber of sleeper cells based in the urban centres of the state, most of which,according to sources, have been nurtured by this 'battalion'. From the point ofview of the Army, the ongoing area domination exercise will also disrupt thefree run the ULFA has enjoyed so far from its bases in Myanmar. In some measure,these factors explain the haste in forming the PCG, and the demands for a haltto the Army's operations and its withdrawal from the area.

Curiously, in Assam, the eagerness in political circles tonegotiate with terror has remained undiminished and has often clashed with theSecurity Forces' assessment of the situation. More often than not, the politicalclass has had its way in overriding security concerns. This time as well, theruling Congress regime, which faces an election in less than a years' time,remains vulnerable to pressures, even from an group like the PCG. Within days ofits formation, the PCG has been able to crank up hopes by describing itself asthe epitome of ULFA's sincerity towards a peaceful solution, and has echoed theULFA's demands for the termination of military operations, which it claims arevitiating the 'conducive atmosphere' for negotiations. It has also alleged'large-scale human rights violations' in villages such as Dhadia Laika, PhasiDia and Bon Gaon, which lie within the perimeter of the National Park. OnSeptember 15, the PCG claimed to have secured an assurance from the governmentthat Army operations would be stopped. Subsequently, on September 21, it sent ateam to the Dibru-Saikhowa forests, to make an on-the-spot assessment, but theArmy disallowed its entry into the area.

The response of the Ministry of Defence, which remainsresponsible for the Army's operations, in the face of enormous pressuregenerated by the PCG, has - as yet - remained firm. The Defence Minister hasclearly ruled out any possibility of the Army loosening its hold over the area.Speaking to the media at Army Headquarters at Rangiya in the Kamrup-RwalDistrict of Assam, Pranab Mukherjee said on September 22, "A group formedby the ULFA or someone else cannot dictate terms to the government."

For once at least, the government appears to be showing nosigns of stepping on to the slippery slope of denial and the argument that the'terrorists are our sons and lets bring them back home'. It remains, however, tobe seen whether this determination will abide, and whether it eventually becomesthe seed of a future and coherent government policy on terrorism.

Bibhu Prasad Routray is Research Fellow, Institute forConflict Management. Courtesy, the South Asia Intelligence Review of theSouth Asia Terrorism Portal