A Tibetan Civil Disobedience

The civil disobedience movement launched by the Tibetans living the Kardzearea of the Sichuan province continues. Local Tibetan farmers  have beenrefusing to cultivate their land in protest against the alleged Chinesesuppression of the Tibetans. It has been reported by reliable sources that theChinese authorities have warned the protesting farmers that if they do notresume the farming by April 11,2009, their land will be confiscated by theState. Despite this warning, they continue to be defiant.

The Qinghai province, where His Holiness the Dalai Lama was born, and theKardze area of the Sichuan province, which is the homeland of the Khampas,continue to be affected by peaceful protests by Tibetan monks and nuns andTibetan students. Over 40 instances of peaceful protests have been reported fromthese areas since March 10.The Chinese security authorities have been followingthe same tactics in dealing with the protests-- allow them to take place andarrest those involved after they have returned to their homes or monasteries.

March 28, which was observed by the Chinese as the "Emancipation of theSerfs Day" to mark the 50th anniversary of the end of the rule of HisHoliness, passed off peacefully without any violent incident reported from theTibetan-inhabited areas. Since the emancipation of the serfs by Beijing has beena popular measure with a large number of Tibetans whose parents and ancestorshad served as serfs, the call for a protest by the Tibetans on that day did notreceive much response from the local people.

While the protest movement by the supporters of His Holiness continues, ithas failed to pick up momentum. A problem faced by the supporters of the DalaiLama arises from the fact that the Tibetan-inhabited areas have benefited fromeconomic development. How to maintain and increase the protest movement againstthe Chinese without  jeopardising the fruits of the economic development?This is a major question confronting the anti-Chinese dissenters in the Tibetanareas.

Apart from the civil disobedience movement by the farmers of the Kardze area,another matter of  concern to the Chinese arises from the recent attack ontwo soldiers of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) by suspected Tibetans, whohave not yet been identified and arrested. On March 19,2009, an unidentifiedperson wearing a mask shot dead an 18-year-old PLA soldier in Chongqing and ranaway with his sub-machinegun. On March 26, another soldier from the same PLAbattalion was repeatedly stabbed in the residential area of the PLA unit atLeshan in the Sichuan province by an unidentified person, who managed to runaway. It is not known whether the soldier survived his injuries. The Chinese aretreating both the incidents as possible terrorist attacks.

The Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR) itself  remained free of incidentsduring March when three important and emotional (to the Tibetans) anniversarieswere observed. Relieved by the absence of any violent incident in the TAR, theChinese authorities in the TAR have announced that group tourism to the TAR will again be allowed from April 5. The Chinese authorities in Beijing have alsotaken a group of foreign journalists on a conducted tour of the TAR. Theanti-Dalai Lama rhetoric has come down since the end of March. Significantly,"The Hindu" of Chennai, which generally disseminates only the Chineseversion of the events in the TAR and censors foreign news agency reports whichreflect negatively on China, has prominently carried a detailed interview withHis Holiness in its issue of April 1,2009.

This prominence to the views of His Holiness has come at a time when theChinese themselves through academics and others have undertaken an exercise toassess the impact of the success  of their diplomatic campaign against HisHoliness on his thinking regarding his own future and that of the Tibetanpeople. They have been gratified by the refusal of the South African Governmentto issue  a visa to His Holiness to enable him to  attend a peaceconference in South Africa and by the public statement of President NikolasSarkozy of France that Tibet is a part of China after a meeting with PresidentHu Jintao in the margins of the G-20 summit in London.

The Chinese, whose confidence in Tibet was  rudely shaken by the violentincidents of March-Aprl,2008, have regained their confidence after the successof their security agencies in preventing any repetition in March,2009,  andafter the muted international reaction to the curbs imposed by them to achievethis. They are now convinced that the international community as awhole--barring sections of non-governmental opinion, particularly in the US andWest Europe-- has accepted the irreversibility of the ground reality of Tibet asan integral part of China. They also show fresh confidence that they  wouldbe able to deal with the continuing protests in the Qinghai province and in theKardze area of the Sichuan province.

They are prepared to show patience and wait out for the death of His Holinessand  thereafter nominate their own Dalai Lama. What they are worried is that His Holiness might try to pre-empt this by changing the traditional processby which a successor to His Holiness is chosen. One thing is certain-- if andwhen His Holiness dies, his successor--however chosen and by whom-- may notenjoy the same reverence and loyalty from the Tibetans in China as His Holiness.The Chinese are counting on this possibility for ultimately wearing out theTibetan resistance.

At present, the Chinese are not making an issue of the activities of HisHoliness from his exile in India. They understand the love and reverence for HisHoliness from  the Indian people. If and when His Holiness dies, theChinese attitude to the activities of the Dalai Lama's followers from Indianterritory may harden. This could become a new friction point in the relationsbetween the two countries. It is important for the Government of India to identify the various possible scenarios with regard to Tibet during the next 10years and examine its options.

B. Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. ofIndia, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies,Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies.