9/11: Seven Years After

Despite the set-backs suffered by Al Qaeda in Iraq, it is constantly on thelook-out for opportunities for another act of mass casualty terrorism anywherein the world where an opportunity presents itself.

Mass casualty operations of the 9/11 kind in countries far removed from theterrorist sanctuaries have been rendered difficult by the enforcement of stricttravel and immigration control measures. It has become difficult for terroristsnormally resident in one country to go to another country with which there is nocommon border for carrying out a terrorist strike. The trend is, therefore,increasingly to depend on local residents in the targeted country for carryingout a terrorist strike. Hence, the phenomenon of home-grown jihadis. 

From the messages disseminated by Ayman Al-Zawahiri, the No.2 to Osama binLaden, in recent months, it is clear that Al Qaeda is trying to adapt itself tothe new ground realities by promoting the concept of a global intifada in theplace of a global jihad. Its message to Muslims all over the world has been--hitwherever you can, whenever you can and in whatever way and with whatever meansyou can. 

US counter-terrorism experts have managed to drive a wedge between the secularIraqi Arabs of the national resistance movement and the Wahabi Saudi Arabs andtheir associates from other Arab countries, who constitute the bulk of Al Qaedain Iraq. This has affected Al Qaeda. It still manages to carry out sporadicterrorist strikes in the Sunni area, but not on the same scale and not asfrequently as before.

However, US experts have not succeeded in similarly driving a wedge between thePashtuns of the Taliban and the Arabs, Uzbeks and Chechens of Al Qaeda andpro-Al Qaeda organizations. The Taliban and Al Qaeda remain firm in theirsolidarity with each other. Pakistan’s reluctance to act firmly against AlQaeda sanctuaries in its Pashtun belt and its collusion with the Taliban haveposed a cruel dilemma for the US--either act on its own against the sanctuariesin Pakistani territory, thereby running the danger of driving more Pashtuns intothe arms of the Taliban and Al Qaeda or continue bleeding helplessly inAfghanistan. There have been some indications that the US may no longer beaverse to undertaking unilateral strikes on the ground in Pakistani territory.Deniable air strikes have been there since 2002, but ground strikes have beenavoided till now. 

The majority of the Muslims all over the world still do not take seriously AlQaeda’s goal of an Islamic Caliphate, but they have started paying attentionto the call of Al Qaeda and the Taliban to take Islam back to the days of itspristine purity. Thus, one finds Al Qaeda and its associates mastering and usingmodern means of communication and motivation through the Internet etc not fortaking their community forward towards modernization, but backwards towardsarchaic concepts and beliefs.

There is no evidence in South Asia to indicate that formerly peaceful groups arenow becoming radical because of the war in Iraq and Afghanistan or otherreasons. However, there are three trends which need attention: First,organizations, which were already radical, are becoming more radical due toexternal (anti-US anger in Pakistan) or internal ( anger over domesticgrievances in India) reasons. Second, an increase in the flow of new recruits ofindividual Muslims to these organizations. Thus, formerly peaceful Muslims arenow tending to get radicalized. Third, first signs of concern in the IndianMuslim community over this phenomenon. This has led to an open condemnation ofresort to terrorism by some leaders of the Muslim community and a reported splitin the Students’ Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) between those advocatingterrorism and those advocating peaceful political means. 

Radicalisation in some measure or the other has been there in sections of theIndian Muslim community at least since the 1970s, but what is of comparativelyrecent origin is pan-Islamisation. Al Qaeda was not the originator of pan-islamictendencies, but it took advantage of them to promote the concept of a globaljihad or a global intifada. There were not many takers for its ideas in thepast, but it has now started attracting followers from small sections of theIndian Muslim youth in India as well as abroad.

Anger is the basic root cause of all terrorism. The anger is often caused bydomestic or external factors. While India may not have much control over theexternal factors, it should be able to detect in time signs of anger due todomestic reasons and take action to address them. Unaddressed anger at thedomestic level drives the angry into the arms of trans-national organizationssuch as Al Qaeda in course of time.

The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. ofIndia, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies,Chennai.