Southern Stakes: Tamil Nadu, Kerala Gear Up For Verdict Day

With just hours to go before counting begins, political uncertainty has gripped leadership circles in the southern states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Exit polls—most of them projecting a dream debut for actor Vijay’s fledgling party, the TVK, with some even predicting it could emerge as the winner—have left the established players in Dravidian politics visibly jittery, even as they put up a brave face.

In Kerala, meanwhile, Congress leaders, buoyed by favourable exit poll trends, have intensified their internal manoeuvring for the chief minister’s post.The outcome in both states could mark a significant turning point.If TVK manages to establish itself as a serious contender, it may disrupt the long-standing duopoly of Dravidian majors in Tamil Nadu. In Kerala, whether the Left retains power or not, the verdict could reshape entrenched political patterns that have defined the state for decades.

Soon after the exit poll results were released, TVK leader Vijay huddled with party candidates and senior leaders to chalk out a strategy for the counting day.  It is learnt that they were instructed to avoid speaking to the media until the results are declared.Among the projections, Axis My India has given TVK a striking 98–120 seats, placing the fledgling party within touching distance of power. Meanwhile, Today's Chanakya has projected around 63 seats for TVK, indicating a win for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance in Tamil Nadu.

Other exit polls have offered far more conservative estimates for the actor’s party: Matrize (10–12 seats), P-Marq (1–6 seats), and People’s Pulse (18–24 seats).“I don’t largely believe in exit poll results. I am sure that TVK may secure a significant vote share of around 15–18 per cent, but even that may not qualify it to become the main opposition party, let alone the single largest party,” says political analyst Jenram. However, he adds that if Vijay manages to secure around 15 per cent of the vote, it is likely to have been drawn from both the AIADMK and the DMK.

“This could make it position itself for tough bargaining with either the AIADMK or the BJP in the days to come,” he adds.TVK’s journey began on a tragic note, with 41 people killed in a stampede during one of Vijay’s rallies in Karur in September last year. However, the party appeared to gain significant momentum during the campaign, with Vijay drawing large crowds at rallies and roadshows across the state. “Gen Z seems to be his bedrock. They’ve even pressured many grandparents into voting for TVK,” says Krishnamoorthy, who runs a hotel in Chepauk, Chennai.

In Tamil Nadu, much like in Kerala, even a small shift in vote share can have a disproportionate impact on electoral outcomes. In 2021, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance secured 45.38 per cent of the vote and won 159 seats, with the DMK itself bagging 133 seats in the 234-member Assembly. In contrast, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK)-led NDA polled 39.71 per cent and won 75 seats—a roughly seven-percentage-point gap translating into an 84-seat difference.

This underlines how, if TVK manages to secure around 15–20 per cent of the vote, it could trigger a tectonic shift in Tamil Nadu politics. Historically, about 15–20 per cent of votes in the state go to parties outside both the DMK and AIADMK fronts. If a single party is able to consolidate this “third space,” it could emerge as a serious force to reckon with in the state’s political landscape.

If Tamil Nadu has TVK as the cynosure of all eyes, in Kerala, it is the power play within the Congress that is grabbing headlines. With most exit polls predicting a victory for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), at least three leaders—Opposition Leader V. D. Satheesan, senior leader Ramesh Chennithala, and AICC general secretary K. C. Venugopal—are pulling out all the stops to stake claim to the coveted post of chief minister. Posters, along with high-visibility newspaper advertisements, have been put out by supporters of V. D. Satheesan and Ramesh Chennithala in a bid to influence the leadership within the Congress.

Despite the exit polls, the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) has not given up hope. “Even the exit polls suggest that most people prefer Pinarayi Vijayan as chief minister. This shows there is no anti-incumbency,” was CPI(M) state secretary M. V. Govindan’s refrain when asked about the projections.“The minority vote and the anti-incumbency factor are the two major elements that could favour a Congress comeback in the state,” says senior journalist P.T. Nasar.

The BJP factor is also significant. The party, which has no MLAs in the outgoing Assembly, is hoping to build on its 2024 Lok Sabha performance, in which it secured a seat and around 19 per cent  vote share. Its prospects are particularly focused on the Thiruvananthapuram district, where at least four constituencies have witnessed triangular contests.In the 2021 Assembly elections, LDF made history by returning to power for a consecutive term for the first time in Kerala.

The Left secured 99 seats with 45.4 per cent of the vote, while the UDF won 41 seats with 39.5 per cent  vote share in the 140-member Assembly. What makes this election in Tamil Nadu and Kerala significant is that both states appear to be at a moment of churn. The emergence of TVK could potentially signal a challenge to the long-standing dominance of Dravidian majors in Tamil Nadu.

Even if TVK falls short, a weak performance by the AIADMK could, over time, indicate a shift in the state’s political landscape. A strong showing by TVK may also push other parties, including the Congress, to recalibrate their strategies.In Kerala, if the LDF retains power, it could further weaken the Congress and potentially create space for the BJP to expand. On the other hand, UDF's comeback could significantly dent the Left’s national footprint, given Kerala remains one of its strongest bases.