Why The Catalonian Election Matters

Sunday’s election in Catalonia, Spain’s north-eastern province and of one its richest regions has huge implications for Spain, the European Union and for India.

If there is an overwhelming support for referendum, which may allow Catalonia to secede from Spain, it can divide the country further and deepen existing fissures of distrust between leaders in Barcelona and Madrid. For a European Union, already divided over the refugee crisis, the Catalonian development will pose yet another challenge to the EU leadership and may divide it further. And for India, already under pressure from different sections in restive Kashmir, the Catalonian referendum could strongly revive a similar demand from forces fighting to secede from the country.

The regional election is widely being seen by nationalist forces as a referendum for independence from Spain. Two separatist parties, the ruling Convergencia of Catalan leader Artur Mas and Esquerra Republicana have come together under the banner, "Together for Yes," and formed a single list of candidates. If they win 68 out of 135 seats in the regional parliament, it will allow them to secure a majority. They claim, this will give them the right to unilaterally declare independence from Spain—a process which might take them about 18 months.

More than 5 million voters are eligible to vote in this election and though there is a strong possibility that majority of Catalans favour a referendum on independence, opinion among them is divided on whether they want to secede from Spain.

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s Popular Party which heads a centre-right government in Madrid is opposed to any attempt by Catalonia to secede from Spain. He has argued that since the secession of Catalonia would affect the entire country, a nation-wide referendum should be held on this contentious issue.

The European Union has made it clear that at the moment it has no stomach for the Catalonian independence. It has pointed out that if the leadership in Barcelona breaks away from Spain, it will not be admitted to the EU. But if the Catalan referendum is brought to its logical conclusion and if it does manage to secede from Spain, the new reality might force a division in the tough stand EU has displayed so far.

But irrespective of whether Catalonia will ultimately secede from Spain or not, a victory for the nationalists in the regional election will definitely give a boost to similar demands elsewhere in Europe and also in India.

Interestingly, Artur Mas is no stranger to India. As President of the Catalan province he had led a high-powered business delegation to India in November 2013 in his attempt forge strong business ties between Catalonia and India. Though he was careful to make any direct reference to Catalonian referendum at that time, he did make a public statement to say how he has been inspired by Mahatma Gandhi and the peaceful movement he led to achieve India’s independence from the British in 1947.

But 68 years down the line there is very little space among the mainstream political parties in India to remotely encourage any forces that plans to secede from India. From Jawaharlal Nehru downwards, successive Indian Prime Ministers have all strived to keep the country’s territorial integrity and sovereignty intact, backed by a  strong support from other political parties.

However, questions are now being raised from different quarters on the Narendra Modi government’s handling of the Kashmir issue. Reports suggest a series of unrest in the Valley and wider appreciation among younger Kashmiris for militancy and join the forces for "Azadi" or Independence. The fact that there is also disquiet among the PDP leadership—the coalition partner of the ruling BJP in Jammu and Kashmir—about the nature of the autonomy promised to it, should be a serious cause for worry for Delhi.

Though Pakistan’s attempt to create a major ripple at the international stage on the situation in Kashmir has not worked so far, the time has perhaps come for the leadership in Delhi to take the initiative in seriously implementing the long list of promises it has made to the Kashmiris. If complacency sets in—as it has often done in the past—India may end up spending much more energy, resources and time in handling a full-blown separatist movement in Kashmir.