War Junkies

I have known him since he was 20-something. At that time, I was a member ofthe Knesset, and Olmert was the book-carrier (literally) of another member.Since then I have followed his career. He has never been anything but a partyfunctionary, a small-time politician specializing in manipulations, arun-of-the-mill demagogue. On the way, he changed parties several times andserved as a mayor with a grade of D minus, until he climbed on the bandwagon ofAriel Sharon. More or less by accident he was given the empty title of"Deputy Prime Minister", and when Sharon suffered his stroke,something happened that took Olmert too by surprise: he became Prime Minister.

Throughout his career he has remained a complete cynic, basically aright-winger but willing to pretend to be a liberal when faced with leftists.

So, I told myself, this is just another cynical speech. But suddenly aghastly thought struck me: No, the man believes what he is saying!

Hard as it is to imagine, it seems that Olmert really believes that this is asuccessful war. That he is winning. That he has radically changed Israel'ssituation. That he is building a New Middle East. That he is a historic leader,far superior to Ariel Sharon (who, after all, was beaten in Lebanon and whoallowed Hizbullah to build up its arsenal of rockets). That the longer he isallowed to go on with the war, the more his stature in history will grow.

Ehud Olmert has obviously cut himself off from reality. He lives in a bubbleall by himself. His speeches show that he has a very real problem.

Of all the dangers facing Israel now, this is the most severe. Because thisman is deciding, quite simply, the fate of millions: who will die, who willbecome a refugee, whose world will be shattered.

But Olmert's problem with megalomania is nothingcompared to what has happened to Amir Peretz.

Exactly nine months ago, after his election as Labor Party chairman, Peretzmade a speech in Tel-Aviv's Rabin Square in which he revealed his dream: that inthe no-man's land between Israel and the Gaza Strip a football field will bebuilt, and a match between the Israeli children of Sderot and the Palestinianchildren of nearby Bet-Hanoun will take place. An Israeli Martin Luther King.

Nine month's later, a monster has been born to us.

In the Knesset election campaign, Peretz appeared as a social revolutionary.He announced that he would change the face of Israeli society, set new nationalpriorities, cut billions from the military budget and transfer them toeducation, welfare and measure to reduce the glaring gap between rich and poor.As a veteran peace-lover, he would, of course, achieve peace with thePalestinians and the entire Arab world.

This won him the votes of many citizens, including many who would normallynever consider voting for the Labor Party.

What followed is history. He seduced himself, when Olmert offered him theMinistry of Defense. That was still Olmert the cynic. He knew, as we all did,that Peretz was walking into a trap, that as a rank civilian without seriousmilitary experience he would be easy prey for the generals. But Peretz did notshrink back. The supreme aim of his life is to become Prime Minister, and inorder to become a credible candidate he believed that he must present himself asa security expert.

Since then, Peretz has become a rabid warmonger. Not only does he endorse allthe demands of the generals, not only does he act as their spokesman - he hasalso helped to push Israel into war, and since then he has been demanding thatit should continue, enlarge, widen, kill more, destroy more, occupy more. Hehimself declared, "Nasrallah will never forget the name Amir Peretz!"- like a spoilt child inscribing his name on a tourist attraction.

At the moment, he is trying to be more extreme even than Olmert. While thePrime Minister is afraid of continuing to advance, fearing that too manycasualties from the rockets and the battle on the ground might cloud thebrilliance of his victory, Peretz wants to reach the Litani River, whatever thecost. There's no other way - if one wants to become Prime Minister, one has towalk over dead bodies.

Thus a monster has been born to us. Rosemary's Baby.

On the 25th day of the war, we can draw up an interimbalance. What were the aims? What are the results?

"To destroy Hizbullah"

Who would have believed it, but on the 25th day Hizbullah is still standingand fighting. A few thousand fighters against the fifth strongest army in theworld. Nobody speaks anymore about eliminating it. Not Olmert, not Peretz, noteven Dan Halutz - the third corner of this unholy triangle.

"To weaken Hizbullah"

That is a watered down version of the first aim. It is more convenient,because it cannot be measured. After all, in any war both sides are weakened.People are killed and wounded, arms are destroyed, installations demolished. Butwhile the Israeli army can mobilize another division and another one, and theAmericans are rushing more bombs to us, can Hizbullah absorb such losses?

Nobody knows how many fighters the organization has lost. The Israeli armydistributes estimates, without being able to prove them. The Lebanese speakabout far smaller numbers, and do not have any proof either.

But that is not the main thing. An organization like Hizbullah has no problemin raising more and more volunteers for "holy war". Be their losses asthey may, after the war the organization will train as many new fighters asnecessary. Their arsenals will also be replenished with new weapons arrivingfrom Iran and Syria. The border is long, it is impossible to seal it.

"To push Hizbullah away from the border"**

That is the crumpled aim, after the two preceding ones were shown to beunattainable. It, too, has not been realized yet, and never will be, because itis also unattainable. Most Hizbullah fighters are local boys of the SouthLebanese towns and villages. They will continue to be there, overtly orcovertly. No international force can prevent that, and certainly not theLebanese Army.

The rockets can be moved further away. How many kilometers? Ten? Twenty? Thatwill not remove the threat from Nahariya, Haifa and Tel-Aviv - especially sincethe range of the missiles is bound to grow with time, when technologically moreadvanced types arrive.

"To kill Hassan Nasrallah"

For the time being, so it seems, the report of his death was an exaggeration,to quote Mark Twain. True, in a kind of parody of the Entebbe exploit, Nasrallahwas pulled out of a hospital in Baalbek, but it was another Hassan Nasrallah.Oops.

In the meantime, the original Nasrallah is flourishing. Compared to thekitschy speeches of Olmert, with their endless clichés and the fist thumping onthe table, the Hizbullah leader comes over as a sober speaker, measured andmostly quite credible.

"To return to the Israeli army the power of deterrence"

Nobody has any doubt that the Israeli army is a good, professional army,capable of defeating regular armies. But this war proves that it is not capableof achieving a military decision against an able guerilla organization withdetermined fighters. If Hizbullah is alive and kicking after 25 days, thedeterrence power of the Israeli army has been weakened - whatever happens fromnow on.

From this point of view, the war has harmed the security of Israel. It hasproved that the Israeli rear is exposed, that the Hizbullah fighters are notinferior to the Israeli soldiers, that there is no de-luxe war, that the AirForce cannot win without land forces. Not even in ideal circumstances, when theother side has no anti-air defense to speak of.

Some comfort themselves with the thought that "the Arabs have seen thatwe are crazy". We react to a small local provocation with an orgy ofkilling and destruction, destroying whole countries, a sort of national amok.But running amok is not a policy. It does not solve any problem. It is anuncontrollable reflex. It does not allow for straight thinking. It even allowsthe other side to manipulate us with premeditated provocations.

"Deploying an International Force along the border"

That is a kind of emergency exit, after all the other aims have gone up insmoke.

At the beginning of the war, Olmert himself strenuously objected to such aforce, because it would restrict the freedom of action of the Israeli army.Clearly, no international force will dare to come, unless there is a cease-firein place and an agreement with Hizbullah has been reached. Nobody wants to beexposed to cross-fire. Therefore, this force will also have to serve Hisbullah'sinterests, for fear of a guerilla war starting against it. Have all thesacrifices been made for this?

"We shall create a new situation in the Middle East"

This aim has indeed been achieved - but not the way Olmert told himself (andus).

The long-range results of the war are not immediately obvious. They belong tothe category defined by Bismarck as "imponderables" - things thatcannot be measured.

Every day on their TV screens tens of millions of Arabs and hundred ofmillions of Muslims see the atrocious pictures of crushed babies, the sights ofthe horrible destruction. These are deeply imprinted in the consciousness of themasses and will leave behind them an accumulation of anger and hatred that isfar more dangerous than an arsenal of missiles. In these 25 days, thousands ofnew suicide bombers have been created. And as the stature of Nasrallah as thehero of the Arab world increases, so the respect for the "moderate"Arab regimes hit new lows - the very regimes that the US and Israel rely on forcreating the New Middle East.

After the 25th day, the 26th arrived, more will arriveand so on and on. President Bush, who pushed us into this war to start with, isnow pushing us to fight on ("Until the last Israeli soldier," as thesaying goes.) Like Olmert, he lives in an imaginary world.

Bush, Olmert and their like can incite and draw the masses behind them, untilthe call of "the Emperor is naked" finds receptive ears.

One of the most sickening sights of the war is the picture of theinternational diplomats doing everything they can to enable Olmert & Co. togo on with the war. The UN has long since become an agent of the White House.Hypocrisy and sanctimoniousness are having a field day, while lives are beingdestroyed and the dead buried on both sides of the border.

Olmert wants to "gain" as many days as possible for continuedfighting. What sort of gain is this? We are conquering South Lebanon as fliesconquer fly-paper. Generals present maps with impressive arrows to show howHizbullah is being pushed north. That might be convincing - if we were talkingabout a front-line in a war with a regular army, as taught in Staff College. Butthis is a different war altogether. In the conquered area, Hizbullah peopleremain, and our soldiers are exposed to attacks of the kind in which Hizbullahhas excelled from its first day.

So we shall get to the Litani River. Beyond it, there is another river, andanother one. Lebanon has an abundance of rivers we can get to.

Perhaps it would be worthwhile for these two junkies, Olmert and Peretz, tocome down from their "high" and study the map