Spiralling Out Of Control

The evolving scenario in Nepal is following, in its every detail, a scriptwritten by the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), with all other characters inthe piece enacting their parts to the hilt, but exercising little influence overthe course of events. The king and his coterie continue to defy logic to act outthe part of the villains; the agitating Seven Party Alliance (SPA) is out on thestreets, paralyzing the government and provoking the police and army excesses sointegral to the final attainment of the Maoist agenda; and the Maoists continueto pull the strings of the nation, combining insurgency with widening politicalunrest.

The four day general strike called by the SPA from April 6-9, 2006, broughtnormal activities across the length and breadth of the country to a standstill.

In a run-up to the strike, the government attempted to stall the protests byordering security agencies to bar all passenger buses plying to the capital,Kathmandu. These orders were duplicated in other urban centres by localadministrations. All passenger booking-counters at various bus stops in theDolakha and Ramechhap Districts suspended the booking of tickets for anindefinite period, while the local administration in Baglung, Parbat, Kaski andMyagdi Districts ordered transporters not to ply long-route passenger busservices that connect to Kathmandu, as well as major cities in the country, fromApril 5.

Further, the District Administration offices at Kathmandu, Lalitpur andBhaktapur in the Valley imposed a curfew within the Ring Road areas in Kathmanduand Lalitpur, and in certain places in the Bhaktapur and Kirtipur municipality."Residents should not come out of their houses. Security forces could shootviolators or police could arrest them and jail them up to one month", thenotices stated. Further, authorities also disrupted mobile telephone servicesfrom the morning of April 8. Nepal Telecom officials said these services weredisrupted following a government order.

In view of possible active support of civil servants for the general strike,the government, on April 2, ordered all government employees not to participatein the SPA’s protest demonstrations. The warning came in a letter sent to allthe ministries and constitutional bodies by the Office of the Council ofMinisters.

To bolster the strike, as well as to clear any accusations of activeparticipation in the protests and comply with the requests of the SPA and civilsociety, Maoist ‘Chairman’, Prachanda, announced that it would observe a ‘unilateralcease-fire’ within the Kathmandu Valley with effect from the evening of April3, and until further notice. The statement, however, reiterated the Maoists’active support to SPA’s peaceful protest programmes and appealed to people atall levels "to come out on the streets to create a new history of a LoktantrikNepal."

And, indeed, out they came. Over 400 protesters were arrested in Kathmandualone, and dozens of others injured on the first day of the general strike onApril 6, even as violent protests were reported from the Kalanki, Naya Baneshwor,Chabahil and Kirtipur areas where the protesters set ablaze tyres on thestreets, while the police baton-charged and fired several rounds of tear gasshells to disrupt the protests. Marketplaces, industries, schools and collegesremained closed in the capital and no vehicles, except for the diplomatic and UNvehicles, plied. The Home Ministry said that 167 persons were arrested whiledefying prohibitory orders effective within the Ring Road area in Kathmandu andLalitpur.

The second day saw worse. The District Post Office in Lalitpur was set ablazeand students at the Tribhuvan University in Kirtipur ransacked the Dean’soffice, briefly holding several officers hostage. Presidents of government andcorporation employees’ unions said they had extended support to the movementto safeguard their professional and trade union rights. They said employees ofthe Nepal Electricity Authority, various corporations and banking sectorsstopped work on April 7 to express solidarity with the movement, an apparentsnub to the earlier government order issued to employees. Close to 751protestors were detained in Jumla, Morang, Pokhara, Lamjung, Hetauda, Chitwan,Lahan, Kalaiya, Baglung, Charikot, Dipayal and Butwal.

The protests took an uglier turn on April 9, when three persons were killedand over 26 protesters injured in security forces firing in different parts ofthe country. In Syangja, Nepali Congress district leader Kedar Kafle was alsocritically injured.

As the situation continue to worsen across the country, authorities issuedcurfew orders in the western city of Pokhara, while fresh curfew orders wereissued in Surkhet, Butwal and Chitwan Districts. Meanwhile, in Nepalgunj, thecurfew period was extended by four hours with effect from April 8 till furthernotice.

As protests mounted, the Maoists, on April 9, predictably announced anationwide campaign of escalating demonstrations including the defiance ofcurfew orders, the ‘capture’ of highways and the breaking of Royal statues.In a statement mailed to media offices and signed by Prachanda and BaburamBhattarai, the Maoists also reiterated support to the SPA’s call to step upits pro-democracy campaign. The SPA has also extended its ‘General Strike’indefinitely, in view of the government’s repression.

Nevertheless, the ‘honeymoon’ between SPA activists and the Maoistscontinue to leave huge holes at the ground with reports of intimidation andassault by the latter. On April 2, Maoists assaulted dozens of cadres of thePeople’s Front Nepal (PFN) in the Betahani village of Banke district. Thecentral committee member of PFN, Bed Prakash Acharya, said that the Maoistsassaulted them because they expressed their reluctance to participate in theinsurgent’s functions. He added, further, that the incident has raised seriousquestion about the sincerity of the insurgents in the 12-point agreement.

Even as the Maoists extended their ‘support’ to the parties, their mainagenda of bludgeoning the king’s Forces continued. On April 5, in SarlahiDistrict, they launched simultaneous attacks on all security installations and governmentoffices in Malangwa and the Arjun Band Barracks of the Royal NepaleseArmy (RNA) at Nawalpur. Sources said that Maoists freed over 129 inmates fromthe District Prison, including at least 22 Maoists. The District AdministrationOffice, District Police Office, District Development Committee Office, DistrictPrison and other government offices were damaged in the attack, even as fivesecurity personnel and four Maoists were killed.

In a similar attack in Butwal on April 7, the Maoists targeted the areaPolice office, the western regional Police Training Centre and the Army TrainingCentre at Golpark after entering from the Basantapur Forest region and the upperpart of the Jyotinagar and Chure forest region. In the ensuing clash, fourMaoists and a civilian were killed.

Ignoring the ground realities, the administration continues to build castlesin the air, with government spokesman, Shrish Shumsher Rana, describing theMalangawa attack as a minor incident. "It is just a move of the terrorist toshow their existence," Rana said, adding that since the February 1, 2005,Royal takeover, "Now there is not a single place where they (Maoists)can claim their control."

The king, on the other hand, stressed on the need for "permanent peace",though there is little evidence of any movement "towards this noble cause".

With the country already struggling with dwindling economic resources,foreign agencies have announced a further slashing of aid. DFID, the BritishFunding Agency, cut aid from £ 47 million proposed in 2004 to below £ 32million in 2006. "We will now decrease it further as there is no sign of peaceand democracy," said Mark Mallalieu, head of DFID in Nepal. This aid cut willimpact on rural road projects, support to local government and water resourcedevelopment. Denmark, among Nepal’s top-five bilateral development partners,has also slashed aid from 205 million Danish Kroner in 2004 to 143 millionDanish Kroner in 2005. The Finnish Embassy in Kathmandu also disclosed that ithad frozen two rural water supply and sanitation projects worth 22 millionEuros. Further, on April 3, the Swedish government withdrew its $25 million aidcommitment for the diversion tunnel of the multi-million dollar Melamchi WaterProject.

As it sought to grapple with the fallout of the demonstrations and repressionunleashed by its own Forces, the regime also held forth a meaningless offer oftalks with the SPA, through the Home Minister Kamal Thapa, who asked the Partiesto renounce their "collaboration with the terrorists". The Parties respondedwith an announcement of even more protest programs for April 10.

These crises can only be compounded by the SPA’s now-extended GeneralStrike, as the dice continue to roll in favour of the Maoists. The directionlessviolence of the regime is taking a toll on the RNA’s soldiers as well, withthe Kathmandu based Informal Sector Service Centre study finding that securitypersonnel were increasingly facing psychological problems and trauma owing tothe conflict-related stress and mounting pressure. At least in some cases, thishas led to the rising incidence of indiscriminate firing on civilians. The lastthing the government needs in the present situation would be an Army running outof control. The king, however, appears to have no coherent plan, either toreclaim the country from the Maoists, or to bring the SPA back into thepolitical process through an offer of meaningful concessions. A continuouserosion of control, long sought and planned by the Maoists, consequently, seemsto be increasingly inevitable.

Saji Cherian is Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management.Courtesy, the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia TerrorismPortal