Real Loser From Failed Indo-Pak Talks

The Pakistani leadership must be really grateful to the Narendra Modi government. For, despite its public pronouncements to keep Kashmir off the agenda, it did little else in the past few days than to bring back the issue squarely at the centre of Indo-Pak relations.

If ones goes by the headlines and commentaries of last week in the Indian media, much of the focus was centred on the Kashmiri separatist leaders of the All Party Hurriyat Conference.

So if the Modi government was so keen to take the focus away from Kashmir, it did just the opposite. By its “flip-flop” on whether to allow the NSA level talks to go on, it willy-nilly created a situation where apart from Kashmir and the Hurriyat, little else was discussed.

But in this entire din the real purpose of why India wanted to resume the dialogue with Pakistan also got lost. The Modi government also failed to come up with a proper explanation as to why it has taken such a tough position on allowing the Hurriyat to be on the periphery of India-Pakistan dialogue.

Foreign minister Sushma Swaraj’s “raat-gayi, baat-gayi” comment to explain the shift in stand from one adopted by the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government, may be a good sound byte for some journalists. But for a person of her stature and experience one expects a better explanation on why keeping the Hurriyat off the Indo-Pak radar serves Delhi’s purpose better than what it did in the past.

The previous Indian governments realised that allowing Pakistani leaders to hold talks with the Hurriyat before an Indo-Pak dialogue, hardly takes away anything from the core issues on the agenda. While stopping such a dialogue between the Pakistanis and the Kashmiri separatists, not only creates an unnecessary controversy before the real India-Pak dialogue. But it also gives undue publicity to the Hurriyat leaders and takes away the real focus of the agenda from the Indo-Pak talks table.

Moreover, the Modi government will have to seriously assess whether it can really be in a position to pressurize Pakistan to have a dialogue with India without involving the Hurriyat. It seems highly unlikely for the Pakistanis to agree to a break from the established norm. Additionally, by making it such a big issue in India-Pakistan dialogue, Delhi has made it even more difficult for Islamabad to accept such a condition and come for any future talks with India.

Perhaps it is time for the Indian leadership to return to the drawing board to reset its Pakistan policy. Pakistan has been consistent in its policy towards India. It has not turned away from a dialogue with Delhi nor has it ever given an indication that it was willing to have talks without keeping the Hurriyat leaders in the loop. The ‘flip-flop” has mostly been from India and in the last one week, this has become more evident.

Despite its public stand, Pakistan can afford not to have a dialogue with India. It does not see its role beyond South Asia and it will be only too happy if it can also keep India boxed within South Asia. The unresolved Kashmir dispute, described by it as a “core issue”—a view shared by most countries in the world—allows it to effectively pull back India in the South Asia box.

But India, which aspires to play a larger role for itself at the world stage, can ill afford to be limited within South Asia. It claims a legitimate right to be at the high-table of international policy making and sees itself as a permanent member of the UN Security Council. However, its inability to effectively manage its relations with Pakistan raises a serious question about its potential to play a bigger role at the world stage.

In September this year India plans to make a strong pitch at the UN General Assembly’s 70th anniversary in New York for its candidacy as a permanent member of an expanded Security Council. A failure to engage meaningfully with Pakistan may continue to cast a shadow over that ambitious Indian plan.