Global Warming Generates Heat

ROME

Are we close to reaching a critical mass on the debate and the evidence onglobal warming that will shred the cover of doubt and disinformation behindwhich many rent-a-scientist governments have been hiding? It would appear sowith the two devastating reports issued so far by the UN Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change, which talk of Himalayas melting, rivers drying, refugeesfleeing and food shortages. By the end of this year when all four reports andsupporting studies are in, the holes will be plugged and escape hatchets sealed.

Over the past three months the debate has clearly moved from thetentativeness of whether global warming is taking place to you bet, and what arewe going to do about it. More than 2,000 Scientists from around the world on theUN panel are agreed, big business led by the insurance industry is coming aroundand citizens groups are lending their weight. Finally the environmentalists canenjoy the consensus on the catastrophe they began warning about years ago butnobody listened because profits and lifestyles were at stake. Crackpot theoriesabout cyclical warming to a determined refusal to face the evidence determinedagenda, especially in the United States which instead of showing leadership onthe issue hid behind the fog of deliberate deception.

But momentum is now building against runaway consumption and a rampant rapeof resources. Even the US Supreme Court weighed in this week, telling the BushAdministration-- the most regressive on the issue of global warming-- that itmust use its power to limit carbon emissions. For a decidedly conservative courtto intervene and take what amounts to a political stand is a step in the rightdirection. But don't hold your breath for the White House to spring intoaction because President Bush has had the distinction of appointing a former oilindustry lobbyist as his lead man on the environment. He edited reports toemphasise uncertainties on global warming until he was discovered in 2005 whenhe slid away to join Exxon Mobil.

But others in the US are joining the chorus. The American MeteorologicalSociety spokesman Toni Socci said this week that the world needs something likea Marshall Plan to combat climate change on a war footing. If we are tostabilize the climate today, emissions would have to be cut by 70 percent. Thereare many eminent US scientists on the UN panel, including the one who iscredited with having successfully plugged the ozone hole.

So far the European Union is taking the political lead on the issue and that'swelcome. At the end of a summit in Brussels early March, EU leaders agreed tocut overall levels of greenhouse gas emissions by 20 percent from 1990 levels bythe year 2020. They also vowed to up the figure to 30 percent if the rest of theindustrialized world does the same. Read the United States and Australia. Underthe increasingly skillful leadership of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, whoholds the rotating EU presidency, they also pledged to getting at least 20percent of all their energy needs from renewable sources by the same date. TonyBlair of Britain called climate change the most pressing political issue of ourtimes.

It is only a matter of time before pressure builds on India and China to do "something" more than harp on the historic injustices of the issue. Howevergood the merits of the argument, it just won't justify inaction. Wait till thewestern business lobby begins highlighting India's carbon emissions as areason not to change. Why should we suffer loss in profits when Indianbusinessmen are under no pressure, they will argue. When the Kyoto Protocol wasbeing negotiated in the 90s, American networks were filled with ads created byUS business associations denouncing India as a greenhouse nightmare.

A repeat of that nasty negative campaign is a distinct possibility. In fact,traces have already begun to appear. A recent front-page article in the InternationalHerald Tribune highlighted the Indian craze for air-conditioners at a timewhen global warming is a huge issue. Wait for the chorus to grow louder asreporters discover other ways Indians are consuming more and warming the earth.Of course, western lifestyles dependent on central air-conditioning and heating,often at levels well beyond human need, multiple cars, vacations andwastefulness have not begun inciting pointed commentary yet.

Western habits will have to change and most likely they will slowly, but itwill no longer be possible for India to point the finger at the west as theguilty party and continue growing at 9 percent annually, burning whatever ittakes to get there. It won't be tenable even though India and China have everyright to give their people all the refrigerators and cars they want. Not onlybecause "we-are-all-in-it-together" and we all have a responsibility tosaving Mother Earth but because the second UN report shows the suffering wouldbe greater in poorer parts of the world, those least equipped to deal with it.Countries in the north, those further from the equator will be less affected andwill in fact gain in the short term with better rainfall for their agriculture.Countries such as India will suffer more.

You could say nature is being unfair in granting reprieve and more time tothose who already have more money, technology and even awareness among thegeneral populace to deal with the problem they created. But this unfairnessshould create a political consensus among the developing countries and India-- growingfast but with vast problems of poverty, flooding, drinking water anddeforestation-- to come up with a plan to demand clean technology at fair pricesfrom those who have it.