Foreign Policy Priorities

My views as given in my reply to a question received from a foreign-basedanalyst who is studying likely Indian policies after the recent elections inIndia - what should be our foreign policy priorities?

Our relations with Pakistan should have the topmost priority because of theirimpact on our internal security situation. How to convince Pakistan that it willnever be able to change the status quo in J&K by using terrorism against us?Is it possible to have a mix of incentives and disincentives in our relationswith Pakistan? Incentives if it acts against anti-India terrorists anddisincentives if it does not do so? Our present policy towards Pakistan hasneither incentives nor disincentives. These are the questions that should engageour policy-makers. 

Our relations with China should have the second priority. A militaryconfrontation with China would be unwise. China has prepared itself quietlywithout publicity for over four decades for such a confrontation by developingthe infrastructure and its military capability in Tibet. Only during the lasttwo years have we woken up to the need for strengthening our infrastructure andmilitary capability in Arunachal Pradesh. We need at least another six to eightyears  for strengthening our position. While preparing ourselves quietlywithout publicity, we should strengthen our economic relations with China hopingthat the economic linkages and the Chinese interest in sustaining those linkageswould moderate its present rigid stand on Arunachal Pradesh. How to get aroundChina's present policy of denying India its deserved pre-eminent position as anAsian power on par with China? Unless we catch up with China economically, wewill not be able to do this. Political power flows out of economic power. In the1950s, when Jawaharlal Nehru was the Prime Minister, political power also grewout of moral power. Moral power no longer counts. Now power grows out of one'smoney-purse. China realised this three decades ago. Its foreign exchangereserves and its investments in US Treasury Bonds speak for it as eloquently asits Armed Forces. We were late in realising the importance of economic power andcontinue to be tardy in pursuing it. In my assessment, we are at least a decadebehind China in our economic power. 

Our relations with the US should have the third priority. The ObamaAdministration has been a disappointment. As pointed out by Robert Blackwill,the former US Ambassador to India, it has been looking at India throughPakistani eyes. At the same time, I would add as my personal view that it hasbeen consciously avoiding looking at Pakistan through Indian eyes. It has beeninterested only in providing more and more incentives to Pakistan with nodisincentives. Its only interest in India is in having  political influenceto be able to prevent us from retaliating against Pakistan for its acts ofterrorism in Indian territory. This policy will act as a speed-breaker in takingany new initiatives for further strengthening Indo-US relations. Despite this,we should be open to all new ideas coming from the US provided those ideas arenot detrimental to our national interests. 

Our relations with Russia should have the fourth priority. Its predecessor state(the USSR) had stood by India in thick and thin, in the best of times and in theworst of times. Russia might be able to moderate Chinese policies towards India.It is still a dependable supplier of arms and ammunition and nuclear powerstations, though it is becoming increasingly money-minded. 

Our relations with Bangladesh and Nepal are important because they too havean impact on our internal security. Now that Prabakaran and the LTTE are gone,we should get rid of our inhibitions in playing a more active role in Sri Lankaas we were doing before the assassination of  Rajiv Gandhi in 1991.We haveexcellent relations with Bhutan and the Maldives. These need to be nursed andsustained with great sensitivity. 

Our persisting internal security problems in different parts of the countryare acting as a drag on our emergence as a major economic power. The terroriststrike in Mumbai in November,2008, was a clear indication that the terroristsare targeting our economic nerve-centres and trying to shake the confidence offoreign businessmen in the security of life and property in India. The Naxalitesor Maoists are increasing their activities in mineral-rich areas of CentralIndia. Assam and other areas of the North-East are not able to make their fullcontribution to the emergence of India as a major power due to our inability todeal with the insurgency in places like Assam and Manipur.

Unless we succeed in removing pockets of continuing alienation in J&K, we will continue to give opportunities and pretexts to outside powersto meddle in our internal affairs. Internal Security Management has not receivedthe attention it deserves. The quality of  the management depends on thequality of the political leadership and of our professional competence. Ourprofessional competence has many weak points--intelligence collection andassessment, follow-up on the intelligence collected, rapid interventioncapability, preventive physical security and retaliatory self-defencecapability. After five years of confused lethargy exhibited by  hispredecessor, P.Chidambaram, the new Home Minister who took over after the Mumbaiattack, is showing signs of greater activism and vigour, but the proof of thepudding will be in the eating. 

The preparation of a long-term perspective plan for the modernisation of ourArmed Forces and for the development of military-related technologies andproduction capabilities and its vigorous implementation need attention. The USoffer to sell some of its weapons and technologies to India should be examinedon merits and accepted if in our interest, but the easier availability of USequipment and technologies should not slow down our development of our owncapabilities. The pathetic state of Pakistan should serve as a warning of the dangers of  over-dependence on the US. It cannot survive without USsupport and at the same time, its dependence on US support is aggravating itsinternal security problems due to the mounting anti-US anger. The responsibilityfor the failure of democracy to take roots  in Pakistan has to be sharedequally by its Army and the US.