Can Pakistan Divide Taliban?

There is continued alarm and opposition by India to the agreement between thePakistan government and the Taliban in Swat. External affairs minister PranabMukherjee reiterated that no deal with the murderous Taliban could be tolerated.Cannot such criticism wait till events unfold, at least until the ten-dayceasefire expires? Evidence suggests that Pakistan is attempting to divide thelocal Taliban from the Al Qaeda-led terrorists.

The Americans widened the scope of bombing raids to target some training campsrun by Baitullah Mehsud who dominates Waziristan. This was at the same time asthe ceasefire with Maulana Fazlullah was being attempted through his mentor andfather-in-law, Maulana Sufi Mohammed. The third force in the Pakistani Talibanis led by Mullah Nazir.

The Mehsuds are the largest tribe accounting for 60 per cent of the Pashtunpopulation in FATA. Mullah Nazir leads the Wazirs tribe which is about 35 percent. The Wazirs are richer and have been the traditional rulers in the past.Nazir also controls the Punjabi Taliban, consisting of Punjabi speaking Pashtunssettled in the Punjab for generations. The Pakistan government is reputed tohave backed Nazir as a counterweight to Baitullah. But right now BaitullahMehsud has the most powerful and well armed force. Wazirs and Mehsuds havealways been rivals but they openly clashed in March 2007 when Wazirs led byMullah Nazir rose against foreign militants, mostly from central Asian origin,and ousted them from Waziristan’s capital, Wana. All three, Fazlullah,Baitullah and Nazir view each other with suspicion. All acknowledge loyalty toAl Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban. But Fazlullah is reckoned to be closer toMullah Omar who heads the Afghan Taliban while Mehsud is reportedly loyal to AlQaeda’s number two and effective commander, Ayman al Zawahiri.

In the tortuous intrigues of terrorist factions it becomes difficult to fathomwho is allied with whom. Do Zawahiri and Mullah Omar, Osama bin Laden’sfather-in-law, see eye to eye? Credible reports suggest that Mullah Omar istrying to make peace with the Americans through Saudi Royals, and has evenpresented a 7-point peace plan. If so, this would hardly be approved by Zawahiri.On the other hand Zawahiri had launched attacks on Chinese engineers in Pakistanthrough Baitullah’s brother, Hakimullah Mehsud. That suggests that the Mehsudsare loyal to Zardari who has visions of creating legendary Khorasan, comprisingAfghanistan, Kashmir, Pakistan and Iran, as the launching pad for global jihad. 

There are indications therefore that there is potential rift between Pashtunsfighting for self-rule and Al Qaeda led terrorists aspiring for global jihad. IfPakistan is trying to separate the two, should it not be encouraged?