Betting On Musharraf

"The Ocean of Fire is not just a race...if the elements don't kill you, your fellow riderswill."

– Frank Collison

Call it the flavour of the season, favourite pastime, shared wisdom or even mere gossip-mongering; betting has become the latest buzzword in Pakistan. With political turmoil moving towards a crescendo, legal battles intermingling with political ones and spilling on to the streets, things are fast approaching a decisive phase. As things unfold, every stakeholder in the future of Pakistan--in or outside the country--is beginning to take a position, betting on who will emerge unscathed and who will bite the dust inthe weeks and months to come. In the middle of all this, visits to the country of two senior United States officials within a matter of days are coming across as signs of Bushadministration's exhaustion, if not resentment, against the present regime. Perhaps betting will now start on whether the'big brother' is betting for or against President Pervez Musharraf's continuing hold on power.

But the interesting aspect of this betting game in Pakistan is that it is not a multi-horse race, not even between two seasoned campaigners. The ongoing tussle appears to be a one-horse race which will decide whether President Musharraf makes it to the finishing line and gets himself re-elected or losessteam and succumbs to the onslaught of his detractors and adverse public opinion before touching the tape. As things continue tounravel, the country's politicians are beginning to bet on a future dispensation with or without President Musharraf, embassies are working overtime to keep their governments back home abreast of the fast changing political climate and capitals across the world are watching with bated breath, trying to makesense of what to expect from the current turmoil. This betting game has got everybody involved, be it the rich or the poor, the empowered or the embattled, the ruling elite or the man on the street.

Notwithstanding what is happening to President Musharraf's image in Pakistan, the message coming from abroad is not a pleasant one. A major shift is discernible in the way Musharraf has been perceived in the West since 9/11. The Bush administration is now under increasing pressure from the media and other groups to stop throwing its weight behind President Musharraf. His role in the war on terror andAmerica's regional strategic interests in Pakistan may not remain a big enough reasons for a blind Washington backing toIslamabad's present regime. Political obituaries are being written and parallels are being drawn with how, 21 years ago, Ronald Reagan confronted a similar situation by going against the interests of "another pro-American dictator (Ferdinand Marcos) in another strategically important country, thePhilippines". On that occasion, the former US president, acting on the advice of his administration, conveyed a terse message to Marcos that"his day was done".

Fortunately for Musharraf, the United States is itself in the midst of transition frenzy and is unlikely to make a decisive policy shift anytime soon. With Tony Blair slipping into oblivion, the post-Bush scenario and who really calls the shots will take around a year to fructify. By then,Pakistan's polity would have already taken one shape or the other. Despite that small solace though, Americadoesn't appear to be in a position to bet for Musharraf for a long time to come. That has, however, not deterred some high-profile and some below-the-radar visits of secretary level officials to Pakistan in recent days. The timings of their visit and the issues they chose to raise have been sending signals of their own kind and suggest that the stakes are high for them in Pakistan. Even though they largely desist from commenting directly on domestic issues, Assistant Secretary of State, Richard Boucher, did not fail to express the desire for"free and impartial elections in Pakistan." Deputy Secretary of State, John Negroponte, who is considered a hawk in the Bush administration, is set to add to the cacophony. However, whether they choose to go public with their views or not is immaterial because the simultaneous visits of two senior officials at such a crucial time are already raising eyebrows. Each word they utter during or after their visit would carry significance and even if they remotely suggest that the United States is no longer betting onMusharraf, things will take a decisive turn for the worse for the incumbent President.

But what lies behind this betting and guessing game? The guessing game is the result of a lack of choice Pakistan is facing today because the democratic fabric of the country is in tatters. If the system of a successful transition of power following elections was allowed to develop in the country, we would not have been debating this issue. To make matters worse, the lack of choice is palpable with all eyes set on just one individual and what is likely to be his next move. Others who appear to be running to remain in contention are forced to do so away from the public glare.

We are in the middle of an already eventful seven-month period--from the sacking of the Chief Justice on March 9 to the imminent retirement of the two senior-most army generals on October 8. Looking back at how things unfolded during the last three months, more chaos is likely to descend on the streets of Pakistan ifthe decision is not perceived to be correct. With little or no chain of command visible in the civil government arena, the focus of attention has been on military hierarchy. That is making political players, including theking's party, very jittery. As they can do little to change things, they are left with no option but to bet on the future turn of events. The power structure that the President has created has made this betting game more intriguing and a lot of things will get clearer from whether Musharraf takes the succession decision before October 8 or after that.

The situation in Pakistan's neighbouring countries is not making things any better. A resurgentTaliban is plunging Afghanistan into deeper crisis and President Hamid Karzai is not even in a position to bet on himself. India has adopted a policy of wait and watch and the delay of Prime Minister ManmohanSingh's visit to Pakistan is a part of that policy. New Delhi's problem has been compounded by the fact that it is familiar with only Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, both of whom are languishing outside the country. India had got around to admitting that they have no choice but to do business with Musharraf, but with his clout waning dangerously at home in recent months, it only suits India to be non-committal about any major move till such timeas there is clarity on who holds the reigns of power. Iran is dealing with problems of its own and it would only hope that things in Pakistandon't go out of hand. The Arab world, where Pakistan has significant clout, would be keen to see the country emerge stronger from this crisis.

Pakistan's complex yet unique geo-strategic position cannot be taken for granted-- more so because it also happens to be a nuclear power. Any change of guard in Pakistan, or the lack of it, is sure to have a profound impact on the region and it remains to be seen whetherit will be a change for the good. Unfortunately, things have been allowed to reach such a pass that even rank outsiders are beginning to question the role of institutions such as the election commission in the country. Despite60 years of independence, respective governments have failed miserably in addressing systemic flaws leaving us vulnerable to regular outside interventions, something that any respectable nation would be ashamed of. Now when the nation is witnessing a deep political divide, the government does not appear to be capable of calling the shots, nor is there an opposition that can rise to the occasion and prove itself as an alternative. With a weak Musharraf running theone-horse race and no single challenger coming out in the open, it is going to be a dramatic fight to thefinish, and one that will keep all spectators on the edge of their seats.

Dr Shahid Masood is a political analyst from Pakistan