Anti-Incumbency!

Simply put, Bangladesh's most immediate past Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina'sgreatest worry is the way the voters perceive the uninterrupted 5-yearterm that she is so proud to have completed before the Caretaker Government cameinto operation on July 15. 

Arguably, the typical ire against the ruling groupsand leaders should not hurt Hasina and the Awami League (AL) as they have alreadystepped down from power. Who will then face the brunt of the emerginganti-incumbency? 

Justice Latifur Rahman, a former Chief Justice, heads only anon-partisan stop-gap cabinet; he will only conduct a fair and impartialelection to hand over power to the winning party or coalition of parties.Neither he nor his associates in the interim cabinet are contestants in comingnational poll. So the umbrage may go ballistic without a clear target to hitgoes the counter argument. Is that really the case?

Muddy Picture

On the eve of an election, it is an uphill task for Hasina to herd the ALsupporters together -- the factional poison is surfacing, and creating a poor imagefor the party. But as the voting gets closer, the intra-party disputes would beput aside to face the BNP-led alliance. 

The visibly upbeat AL still commands anarray of resources including money, foot soldiers, and more importantly a nearlyacquiescent media. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is a periodic victimof its own internal strife, but, unlike 1996, it is now without the incumbencybaggage. Its leader Khaleda Zia (Khaleda) believes that the "AL terrorismandthe devastated economy" have made people look at her party as the only"viable"alternative.

The mainstream parties disappoint many, and several surveys indicate that noneof them would pull a landslide victory; some fear a hung parliament after theelection; some speculate on the increasing bargaining power of the smallerparties after the published voting results. 

Considering the Dhaka newspaperreports, the AL is not confident of retaining all those seats where it had wonin 1996 -- particularly the former cabinet members and the lawmakers are vulnerablein several districts. Much of the dwindling support can be attributed to the prevailinglawlessness and ineffective governance in the last five years.

As of this writing, the BBC reports that the police have arrested nearly 60, 000suspected criminals since the Caretaker Government started its campaign in midJuly. But Hasina and those who support the AL blame the opposition-nourishedMastans (goons) for destabilizing the country only to give a bad name to the AL. 

On her return from Mecca last week, Hasina charged that herpolitical rivals had killed 138 AL leaders and workers in the last one month. Thepassion against the deteriorating public safety normally falls upon those whoare currently in power or on those who held the reins of power not long ago. 

Nevertheless there is no guarantee that the anti-regime lamentation wouldinstinctively turn into a "vote bank" against the wielders ofauthority up toJuly 13. The anti-incumbency may occupy the centrestage, but it would very muchdepend on the opposition's ability to utilize its assets scatteredacross the political landscape.

The 'Godfather' Handicap

'Godfather' is the most frequently used English word in Bangladesh. It stands forpolitically connected individuals who control organized crime, terrorize theinnocent and demolish their challengers. Sometimes, the locally prominentpoliticians with a reputation for maintaining gangs of goons get thenomenclature. Joinal Hazari is one such name in Feni, a district town -- hisnotoriety came to light when he terrorized journalists reporting on hisactivities.

One front page story about Joinal Hazari in Feni or Shamim Osman inNarayanganj (both former AL lawmakers) and their alleged unlawful activities isworth much more than a thousand political speeches. A mere suspicion about a former Minister's or a Sangshadmember's son or a close relative smuggling guns, or committing murder, robbery,extortion and forcible occupation of properties shoots like indictments againstthose who were in power lately.

The AL supporters argue that besides Joinal Hazari, there are other Godfathersin Feni  and in other towns in Bangladesh who do not belong to the AL. But"blame it on the predecessor and your adversary" rhetoric does notwork wellagainst the head wind of public anger in an election season. Hasina has publiclyrebuked the non-party caretakers for harassing the former AL legislator; the ALleaders have threatened that they might boycott election in Feni if thegovernment does not withdraw the warrant of arrest against Hazari.

Accusations, perceived or real, the anti-terrorists combing operationsunderthe curfew, even without tangible results attract attention -- they fuel frustration against those who just stepped down from authority. The collectiveand individual remembrance of who did what in the last few years is still veryfresh, and not expected to fade away before the October election. Ironically,the very names of such characters as Hazari etc that the AL still proudlychampions are the opposition's greatest political weapons to project thecharacter and failures of the not so distant regime.

The Babu Bias

The AL, in the last days of its power in 2001, deployed numerous"friendly"civil servants to sensitive positions, which the BNP-led alliance fears mightsway the election. To create  a better climate for a fair election, theCaretaker Government has transferred many civil servants from the positions theyheld immediately before the tenure of the AL cabinet expired in July.

The AL'sreflexive resistance to transfer of officers for a clean poll is creating moredoubts about a free and peaceful election -- Hasina is also alienating thoseelements of the Bangladeshi middle class that still cherishe a non-politicalcivil service.

The newspapers periodically gave accounts of patronage-driven hiring of civilservants. Even the Public Service Commission did not escape criticism in thelast two years; individuals have expressed qualms both in the recruitment as wellas promotion process. Come elections, and it is time for people to extrapolate even theirsmall grievances. Before they vote, they will surely look at the gamut of suchanti-government displeasure of the last five years.

Personalised Power

Hasina's cronyism, defiance of democratic accountability, and more importantlyher flaunted disdain for political dissenters is the footprint of personalizedpower. Once in office, Hasina's highest priority was to punish her father's(Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, also known as the Bangabandhu) killers. 

Many areasking: was it only the burning desire for revenge that drove her to power?Hasina gave a convincing impression in the last 5 years that she and her ALbelieved that they were the only rightful inheritors of power in Bangladesh, andher challengers were either impostors or the "anti-liberation" forces. 

From thebeginning of her regime in 1996, Hasina has tried to ram down patriotism as definedby the AL as the real thing -- which has resulted in an "us" versus "them"dichotomy that isdominating the electoral scene.

Numerous public buildings, academicinstitutions,bridges and roads had their names changed after Hasina's father or her deceased familymembers. Soon after Hasina was out of power in July, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman'spictures were wrecked despite the AL government making a law against suchdishonoring of his image. 

On several occasions, daily newspapers reportedallocations of favours to Hasina's relatives -- there have been demands to suspend allquestionable allotments of government plots for housing.

Hasina wanted to stay in the Gonobhaban (the official residence of theBangladesh Prime Minister), indefinitely beyond her tenure -- she justified herselfby a law for her security and a cabinet decision granting her the Gonobhaban.Not surprisingly, she faced mounting criticism not only from the knownopponents, but also from the loyalists who feared that the broadly resented"occupation" of that state residence might bring electoral peril tothe AL, before she finally out. 

Hasina may not be the sitting Prime Minister, nora lodger of the Gonobhaban any more, but the pestering anti-incumbency isfar from diffused. She had a sustained majority in the Sangshad, and there was littleinterruption to the AL government that she led. She never hesitated to exerciseher authority. The opposition-driven hartals did not force her out of officealthough there was periodic anti-government roiling. 

Most observers believe thatthe evident lawlessness, unsuccessful administration and stagnant economy duringHasina's premiership are largely self-inflicted.

Hasina fears a "subtle conspiracy" against her in the coming electionof 2001,and in 1996, she feared "subtle rigging" in the voting; her arch rivalKhaledahas also responded with similar rhetoric. No doubt, an"anti-incumbency" pall ishanging over Hasina and the AL. 

Is the opposition ready to make use of thatdisapproving mood? An equally challenging question for Hasina: how will shefight that outrage other than just castigating the opposition, and lately theCaretaker Government?

M. Rashiduzzaman teaches Political Science at Rowan University, Glassboro, NewJersey, USA

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