An Uncertain Peace

February 13th is a date etched into the Nepali national consciousness. This is the day the Communist Partyof Nepal (Maoist) started their 'people's war' seven years ago, to establish a 'communist republic'. Theconflict has already cost more than 7000 lives. According to the plan of action announced by the Maoists latelast December, February 13th this year was to be the beginning of a two-day shutdown, itself preceded by a'people's resistance campaign' for two weeks.

The shutdown would also have signaled the beginning of an 'indefinite' forced closure of schools by thestudents' wing of the Maoists. Fortunately for the country, as a result of a ceasefire announced between thegovernment and the rebels on January 29, the protests were called off and things are moving towards normalcyin the country.

There are, however, many hurdles before true normalcy can return to Nepal. The major one is building trustamong the government, the parliamentary parties and the Maoists. The present truce was possible because thegovernment agreed to the rebel's key conditions that the Interpol 'red corner' notice be withdrawn along withthe terrorist tag and the bounty on the heads of top Maoist leaders.

There have been no major developments since then apart from the announcement of a team by the Maoists tonegotiate their demands for a roundtable conference, an interim government and a constituent assembly. Thatthe present team consists of those from the highest echelons of the CPN (Maoist) has been viewed as anindication that the Maoists are more serious this time around than during the earlier ceasefire in 2001. Thegovernment is yet to respond to the last Maoist overture, arguing that it is awaiting formal intimation of thesame from the rebel side.

Some confidence-building measures are also being explored, despite occasional bouts of mutual accusation. TheMaoists are demanding that the anti-terrorist law be withdrawn and their supporters released by the governmentas a step towards creating a 'trustworthy' atmosphere for the talks to proceed. Accordingly, a number of thosejailed for Maoist-related offences have been released (although in some cases, they have subsequently beenre-arrested as soon as they stepped out of jail).

After the Defence Ministry reported that extortion was still continuing in the countryside, the CPN(Maoist) chairman, Prachanda, released a statement instructing his cadre to desist from 'all forms offund-raising except voluntary donations until further notice'. The two sides are also to work on a code ofconduct during the negotiations in order to avoid any unpleasantness that could disrupt talks.

The third force in the unfolding political equation, the parliamentary parties, have suddenly found themselvesin danger of becoming irrelevant since the center stage is presently occupied by the Maoists and a governmentled indirectly by the King. Given the unexpectedness of the ceasefire, the parties, while welcoming it, havedecried the fact that the negotiations leading to it were not 'transparent'. Some leaders even expressedsuspicion that some secret understanding may have been reached between the Maoists and the King.

The Maoist leadership has been at pains to reiterate that everything is above board. A couple of rebel leadersare presently doing the rounds in Kathmandu, meeting leaders of political parties to convince them that theproposed roundtable conference would not proceed without the participation of the parliamentary parties. Inhis statement to the Press on the eve of the anniversary of the February 13 commencement of the 'people'swar', CPN (Maoist) chairman, Prachanda, reiterated:

"Rather than viewing the [upcoming] talks as between the establishment and our party, it should formpart of the dialogue process among all political parties, the intelligentsia and the common people."

King Gyanendra also referred to the need to address the common distrust in his annual message to the nationon the occasion of Democracy Day on February 19, when he appealed upon all to stop 'blaming and doubting eachother'.

For the moment, however, the biggest stumbling block seems to be the distance between the political partiesand the government that was appointed by the King in October, after the democratically elected Prime Ministerwas ousted for 'incompetence'. The Prime Minister, Lokendra Bahadur Chand, has repeatedly called for anunderstanding between the two sides, but his offers have, so far, been in vain. A recent all-party meetingcalled by the Prime Minister to discuss the Maoist issue was boycotted by all the seven parties represented inthe last parliament that was dissolved in May last year. Even Chand's own party, the Rastriya PrajatantraParty (RPP), preferred to opt out.

This show of solidarity among the political parties is, however, quite misleading when it comes to concertedaction. Of the seven parties, three have been treated as pariahs by the other four. Two of the former, the RPPand the Nepal Sadbhavana Party, have been shunned because the Prime Minister and his deputy are from thoseparties respectively; the third, the Nepali Congress (Democratic) because it was responsible for thedissolution of the parliament which has ultimately led to state power being concentrated in the hands of theKing. The remaining four, which includes the two largest, the Nepali Congress and the CPN (UnifiedMarxist-Leninist), have finally agreed to demand the restoration of the dissolved parliament and are preparingto launch an agitation, though the strategy and the timing are still to be decided.

Meanwhile, in the countryside, the Maoists have begun holding mass meetings openly, and are also approachingvarious political parties for roundtables at the district level. Unlike previous occasions, the securityforces have, however, not let down their guard. Security in Kathmandu is still tight, checkpoints at highwaysare still in place, and some outlying towns are still under nighttime curfew.

The situation remains in a flux at present, and no one knows if the ceasefire will hold at all. But it isaltogether clear where public opinion lies - in the hope that the rather muted celebrations on 13 February,the seventh anniversary of the 'people's war', should also be the last.