The Glad Tidings
- About 88 per cent of the rise in debt is due to exchange rate fluctuations
- About 45 per cent of total debt is concessional
- Short-term debt is only 4 per cent of total debt
- Debt has grown by only 0.9 per cent
The Bad Omens
- Even if it is due only to forex fluctuations, the debt is real and will have to be paid off
- Concessional debt is expected to dwindle
- The debt-GDP ratio and debt-servicing as a proportion of export earnings are up
- Nearly half the forex reserve is hot money
- Exports are decelerating
