Fight For 'Stalingrad': A Fracture In Tamil Nadu's Dravidian Duopoly?

Almost six decades ago, Tamil Nadu witnessed a political upheaval whose impact still lingers over the Dravidian land. In 1967, the southern state dealt a crushing blow to the seemingly indomitable Indian National Congress, pushing it out of power for the first time. Coming from a regional party that had once advocated secession from India, the defeat was particularly striking.

The Congress never returned to power in Tamil Nadu. M. Bhaktavatsalam, who ruled the state until 1967, still holds the distinction of being the last Congress chief minister of Tamil Nadu. The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), which led that historic upset, would later witness a split, leading to the formation of another powerful Dravidian force, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). Since then, these two Dravidian parties—born of the same political tradition—have largely alternated in power.

Nearly 60 years later, political observers believe Tamil Nadu may once again be on the cusp of a significant political shift—one that could potentially redraw the contours of the state’s political future.

“This is historically an important election. For decades, Tamil Nadu elections were fought between the DMK and the AIADMK. But this time, the contest is shaping up between the DMK-led front and the NDA. This could bring about a profound shift in the state’s political dynamics, given the various organisational issues the AIADMK is facing,” says senior journalist Thirumalaven.

While the principal constituents of both fronts remain broadly the same, the DMK-led alliance has expanded since 2021, bringing more parties into its fold. At the same time, the emergence of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), the party launched by actor Vijay, has added a new layer of complexity to Tamil Nadu’s political landscape.

Though TVK has not aligned with either major front, its presence has had a ripple effect in the political arena. At one point, some leaders of the Congress openly suggested revisiting the party’s alliance with the DMK. This was reflected first in the party’s demand for power-sharing and later in its pressure for a larger share of seats to contest.

Though Congress leaders denied that the party had explored switching alliances, the signals were hard to miss.

“We have had a long relationship with the DMK, but our cadres were asking what the party had gained other than a few seats. That is why we demanded power-sharing and more seats. That does not mean we were planning to snap ties and go with some newcomers,” says Lakshmi Ramachandran, spokesperson of the TNPCC.

Chief Minister MK Stalin rejected the demand for power-sharing but later accommodated the Congress’s request for a larger number of seats. After prolonged negotiations—at one point widely believed to be on the verge of collapse—the Congress brought in senior leaders such as P. Chidambaram to take part in the talks with the DMK.

Eventually, the DMK partially conceded to the Congress’s demands, increasing its seat share to 28 from the 25 it had contested in the previous election. In the 234 assembly seats, the DMK contested 173 and the Congress fielded candidates in 25 constituencies in 2021. The DMK won 133 seats, while the Congress won 18.

Reports suggest that the national leadership of the Congress and Stalin played a key role in stepping in to save the alliance after prolonged negotiations had pushed the talks to the brink of collapse.

“Congress is not a force to reckon with in Tamil Nadu. Except for some pockets near Kanyakumari and in some bordering districts, the party’s organisational strength is weak. Had it snapped ties merely over a demand for more seats, that would have been politically suicidal,” opines political commentator Jenraam.

Launching of the TVK

In February 2024, putting an end to months of speculation, actor Vijay announced the launch of his political party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK). He sought to project the party as one committed to federalism, and his subsequent public meetings prominently featured portraits of BR Ambedkar and Periyar, signalling a left-of-centre ideological positioning.

Vijay declared that the party’s political enemy would be the DMK and its ideological adversary, the BJP, while attempting to carve out a distinct political space by positioning TVK as a new alternative in Tamil Nadu’s political landscape.

“We are talking directly to the people. We stand for a corruption-free state. As our leader has said, our ideological enemy is the BJP and our political enemy is the DMK,” said the party’s general secretary CTR Nirmal Kumar. “Positive energy is spreading among the people; they want a corruption-free government that ensures all-around development.”

The party faced a major crisis when a stampede occurred during a rally attended by Vijay in Karur, leaving 41 people dead. The tragedy triggered a sharp political confrontation between parties.

The TVK alleged that the incident was the result of a conspiracy, while the DMK accused the organisers of serious mismanagement. The case is now being investigated by the CBI, which has issued multiple notices to Vijay as part of its ongoing probe.

“Fan groups are not a political constituency,” is the common refrain from leaders of the DMK when asked about the party’s growing visibility in Tamil politics. “At the most, the TVK will end up splitting the anti-DMK votes,” says senior journalist R. Vijayshankar. “There is no organisation that could undertake political activities on behalf of the TVK. Even the district leaders are finding it difficult to meet Vijay,” he adds.

Though Tamil Nadu’s politics has long been defined by the duopoly of the DMK and the AIADMK, a considerable section of voters has consistently chosen not to align with either of the two major Dravidian parties. In the 2016 Assembly election, the AIADMK secured 40.88 per cent of the vote, while the DMK-led front received 39.40 per cent. This meant that nearly 20 per cent of the votes were distributed among other parties, including the BJP and the Left parties.

A similar pattern emerged in the 2021 election as well. The AIADMK-BJP alliance secured 39.71 per cent of the vote, while the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance garnered around 45 per cent. In both elections, roughly one-fifth of the electorate voted for parties outside the two major alliances. These unaligned votes—amounting roughly 15-20 per cent—remain crucial for emerging or smaller political formations.

With political realignment on both fronts, this could change in the next election. The DMK front has expanded by incorporating parties like DMDK, while the NDA has TTV Dinakaran’s AMMK in its fold. “Though the DMK front has expanded, in Tamil Nadu the contest is essentially between the DMK front and everybody else,” says senior journalist and political analyst Babu Jayakumar. “Even though there are parties unaligned with both the DMK and the NDA, the primary focus of most opposition forces is to unseat the DMK. This is reminiscent of 1967, when Congress was pitched against virtually all other parties. Even C. Rajagopalachari, who had little to do with Dravidian ideology, aligned with the DMK at the time,” he adds.

The Road Ahead for AIADMK

The deaths of J. Jayalalithaa and M. Karunanidhi brought profound changes to the two principal Dravidian parties. While the transition in the DMK was smooth, the situation within the AIADMK was marked by intense internal rivalry.

Power struggles among senior leaders led to factional battles and splits within the party, weakening its organisational cohesion. A bitter power struggle broke out between O. Panneerselvam and Edappadi K. Palaniswami, with figures such as TTV Dhinakaran and VK Sasikala backing rival camps.

Amid these upheavals, leaders such as O. Panneerselvam distanced themselves from the party’s dominant leadership and gradually joined the DMK.

In recent months, the party has reached a semblance of stability, largely after many leaders who had challenged Palaniswami’s authority left the organisation. Yet, the prolonged internal battle created space for the BJP to play a significant role in the party’s internal dynamics. The BJP had earlier intervened to bring Palaniswami and Panne­erselvam together when the AIADMK was in power.

However, its more recent attempts to reunite the various factions that had drifted away from the AIADMK have met with resistance. Palaniswami has strongly opposed the return of leaders such as Panneerselvam. Still, even within the AIADMK circles, there is a growing acknowledgement that the BJP has steadily increased its influence within the NDA, to the point where it now plays a dominant role in shaping the coalition’s course in Tamil Nadu.

“By aligning with the BJP, the AIADMK has completely abandoned its ideological pretensions,” says DMK spokesman S. A. S. Hafeezullah. Though the AIADMK claims it’s the larger partner, everybody knows how they are treated in the NDA. The BJP will grow not with the help of the AIADMK but at the cost of that party,” he adds.

Three MLAs, all former ministers, have recently resigned from the AIADMK after Edappadi K. Palaniswami cemented his control over the party. Two of them subsequently joined the DMK, while another veteran leader, K. A. Sengottaiyan, joined the TVK.

However, the most significant development ahead of the election has been former chief minister O. Panneerselvam’s decision to join the DMK, after his repeated attempts to return to the AIADMK failed.

“More than the optics, Panneerselvam joining the DMK could negatively impact the AIADMK in parts of southern Tamil Nadu. He belongs to the Mukkulathor community, which has traditionally aligned with the AIADMK,” says Babu Jayakumar.

Dhinakaran, the leader of AMMK, is another prominent leader from the same community. However, he has already expressed reservations about Palaniswami’s leadership and has suggested that his party may hold seat-sharing talks with the BJP rather than with the AIADMK.

Riding on Welfarism

DMK’s principal poll plank centres on welfarism, along with its emphasis on federalism and the protection of Tamil identity. In what the party describes as the single largest financial aid extended to women in the state’s history, the government credited Rs 5,000 to 1.31 crore women last month under the ‘Kalaignar Magalir Urimai Thittam’.

AIADMK, however, has criticised the move as an election stunt, stating that it would provide Rs 2,000 per month to all women heads of families if voted to power.

“The government, which has allowed the law-and-order situation to deteriorate and made the lives of women unsafe, is now coming up with eyewash measures,” said Kovai Sathyan, national spokesperson of the AIADMK. “Even senior leaders are unhappy with the way one family is managing the affairs of both the party and the government. This will reflect during the election campaign,” he added.

Many politicians and political analysts believe the BJP will use its association with AIADMK to expand its presence across larger parts of Tamil Nadu.

When asked about the BJP growing with the support of the AIADMK, Kovai Sathyan said that if that were the case, the saffron party would have made significant gains when it was aligned with the DMK during the tenure of the late Atal Bihari Vajpayee as prime minister.

According to political scientist Vigesh Rajahmani, Hindutva politics has historically struggled to spread in Tamil Nadu due to its ideological rigidity.

“In contrast, the hallmark of Dravidian ideology has been its agility and adaptability. This divergence is also visible in religious imagination. The intimate and emotional traditions of bhakti in Tamil culture do not neatly fit into the standardised and exclusionary religious framework promoted by Hindutva politics. In Tamil devotional culture, Murugan is revered as a deeply local and cultural deity, while Hindutva discourse often emphasises a Sanskritised Subramania as the spirit of Murugan. Similarly, the Dravidian understanding of religion stresses access and participation rather than ritual purity,” he says.

The BJP, however, believes that the political situation is ripe for it to make significant gains. With what it sees as a formidable alliance, the party hopes to break its long-standing electoral jinx in Tamil Nadu.

“The anti-Centre rhetoric will no longer resonate strongly with voters,” says K. Annamalai. The party also believes that the internal turmoil within the AIADMK could influence voter preferences in the coming election.

“It will have only a micro-level impact,” Annamalai adds. He argues that the DMK government’s criticism of the Union government lacks factual support. According to Annamalai, the Modi government has allocated significantly more funds to Tamil Nadu through financial devolution than the UPA did during its tenure.

“In the last five years, the Central government has transferred 2.4 times more funds than what the UPA government did in ten years,” he says, adding that delays in implementing several central projects in the state are due to the state government.

Almost six decades after DMK first ended the dominance of the Congress in 1967, Tamil Nadu may once again be witnessing a moment of political churn. The traditional duopoly between the DMK and AIADMK now faces new pressures—the expanding role of the BJP and the emergence of TVK.

With shifting alliances, internal crises within established parties, and new political actors seeking space, the coming election could test the resilience of the Dravidian political order.

This article appeared in Outlook's April 1st, 2026 issue titled ParaDime Shift, which looks at how the US-Israel attack on Iran has come home to India with the LPG crisis and is disrupting India’s energy ecosystem, exposing policy gaps, and testing the limits of its diplomacy.