AAP’s Big Political Crisis in Punjab, & the Opposition Smells Blood

Barely weeks after sweeping Punjab's municipal elections and reinforcing its position as the frontrunner for the 2027 Assembly polls, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has found itself grappling with a political crisis unlike any it has faced since coming to power four years ago.

AAP is facing a political challenge in Punjab as the Bhagwant Mann video controversy has grown beyond questions of authenticity. What began as a video that the Chief Minister insists is an AI-generated deepfake now involves the Akal Takht, competing forensic claims, a police investigation into an allegedly forged report and a campaign by Punjab’s opposition. These developments have turned the controversy into a test of the party’s political instincts, its relationship with Sikh religious institutions and its electoral strategy ahead of the 2027 Assembly election.

What has surprised many within the party is the uncertainty over how to respond to the issue. After the Akal Takht declared Mann ‘Guru Dokhi’ and ‘Khalsa Panth Virodhi,’ AAP responded defensively, but the party’s next step remained unclear. Instead, Mann defended himself, dismissing the video as a fabricated deepfake and accusing the Congress, the BJP and the Shiromani Akali Dal of orchestrating a political conspiracy because they could no longer challenge his government's performance.

Privately, however, party leaders admit the controversy has placed AAP in unfamiliar territory. "There is concern within the leadership about how far this issue can travel politically," a senior AAP functionary told Outlook. "This is not like the governance issues we've dealt with over the last four years. Every response risks extending the story, yet remaining silent creates its own problems.”

The Making of a Crisis

The controversy traces its origins to a video that surfaced online in October last year through a Canada-based NRI. The clip appeared to show a man resembling Mann consuming alcohol near portraits of Sikh Gurus.

AAP rejected the video almost immediately, describing it as an AI-generated fabrication. Mann maintained the same position when he appeared before the Akal Takht in January, becoming only the fourth Punjab Chief Minister to do so. He insisted the individual in the clip was not him and urged the Sikh clergy to treat the matter as a case of digital manipulation rather than sacrilege.

The explanation failed to convince the five Sikh high priests.

Relying on forensic examinations, they said, had established the video's authenticity, the Akal Takht ruled against the Chief Minister earlier this month. The verdict immediately elevated the dispute beyond ordinary political criticism. While the Akal Takht has no constitutional authority, its pronouncements carry moral and symbolic weight within sections of the Sikh community, particularly on issues involving religious conduct.

AAP sought to counter the ruling with another forensic analysis, claiming that experts had examined more than 1,191 frames of the footage and concluded that the person shown was merely an actor resembling Mann. The competing forensic claims reduced the controversy to a battle between experts till when Gurugram Police arrested two men accused of fabricating the report that had exonerated the Chief Minister. 

Investigators alleged the two had falsely claimed affiliations with forensic laboratories that did not exist, raising fresh questions about how the report had been produced and circulated. The arrests shifted public attention away from the authenticity of the original video towards whether evidence had been manipulated to shape the public narrative. Whether or not voters ultimately believe the video is genuine, the controversy has become difficult to contain because it now encompasses allegations of forged evidence, competing institutional claims and questions over political accountability. 

United Against AAP

In a state where religion and politics have historically intersected in complex ways, this has allowed the opposition to frame the episode as something larger than a dispute over a single video. It has also given Punjab's otherwise fragmented opposition an issue around which it has, unusually, found common cause.

The BJP, Congress and Shiromani Akali Dal, Punjab's three principal opposition parties, rarely find themselves speaking in one voice. They compete for overlapping constituencies and have spent years attacking one another as fiercely as they have attacked AAP. Yet on the Mann controversy, they have maintained a coordinated line, each demanding the Chief Minister's resignation while questioning the credibility of his defence.

For them, the controversy is not merely about whether the video is authentic. It is about the government's handling of the fallout. 

Speaking to Outlook, BJP national spokesperson R.P. Singh argues that Mann’s explanation has shifted repeatedly from describing the clip as fake, to calling it an AI-generated deepfake, and later suggesting it featured a lookalike actor. “Each successive explanation has weakened rather than strengthened the government’s credibility. The subsequent arrests in the alleged forged forensic report case have only deepened public suspicion.”

Congress MP Gurjeet Singh Aujla has urged Mann to accept the Akal Takht's verdict and seek forgiveness rather than challenge the authority of the Sikh clergy. The Shiromani Akali Dal, meanwhile, has used the controversy to reclaim political ground it has struggled to recover since suffering a crushing defeat in the 2022 Assembly elections. After years of facing criticism over sacrilege incidents during its own tenure in government, the party now presents itself once again as the principal defender of Sikh institutions.

Political Tightrope

For AAP, the problem is that all three opposition parties have found an issue capable of keeping the government's governance narrative off the political agenda.

Since 2022, AAP has largely fought elections on administrative performance, promising cheaper electricity, anti-corruption measures, better schools, hospitals and action against drug trafficking. Those issues remain the government's strongest political assets. The current controversy, however, has forced the party onto terrain where symbolism often outweighs policy.

That shift has become evident in AAP's own political messaging.

Even as Mann continued defending himself against the allegations, Arvind Kejriwal attended AAP’s ‘Ek Shaam Bhagwan Shiv De Naam’ programme in Punjab, announced an expanded pilgrimage scheme and renewed the party’s push to renovate the Kali Mata Temple in Patiala. The visit was presented as part of the government’s religious outreach and was read as an effort to broaden AAP’s appeal among Hindu voters.

An expert described the outreach as a precaution rather than a strategic shift. “If the controversy begins affecting Sikh religious sentiment, the party cannot afford to simultaneously lose its urban Hindu support."

"No one is saying that has happened yet, but politics is about preparing before damage becomes irreversible," he said.

Party insiders also acknowledge that speculation over Mann's future, while publicly dismissed, has begun circulating in political circles.

According to a party source, some within the party believe the controversy may even start conversations about contingency planning before the 2027 Assembly election. AAP leaders reject suggestions of any leadership change, insisting the rumours are being spread by opponents seeking to create instability.

Whether or not such discussions exist, political observers believe the party's handling of the crisis has already become as important as the original allegation.

The Road to 2027

Political scientist Professor Ashutosh Kumar, at Panjab University, believes AAP's greatest mistake has been allowing the controversy to grow instead of allowing it to fade. “Each attempt to rebut the allegations has generated a fresh political story, ensuring the issue remains in public debate far longer than it otherwise might have.”

He contrasts Mann's approach with earlier moments in Punjab's politics when leaders facing religious controversies sought reconciliation rather than confrontation. In Punjab, Kumar argues, religion and politics have historically remained deeply intertwined. The Akal Takht's pronouncements may not carry legal force, but they possess symbolic authority that politicians ignore at their own risk.

“The opposition is relatively weak at the moment. The BJP, in particular, is not a major political force in Punjab, although it is trying to exploit the controversy. Congress is also trying to make political capital out of it. The Akali Dal is naturally involved because issues of religion have always been central to its politics, although its own standing has weakened over time. One has to wait and watch how this develops,” he says.

Only weeks ago, the party secured an emphatic victory in the municipal elections, winning 958 of 1,977 wards and retaining control of eight of the state's nine municipal corporations. Those results reaffirmed that the opposition remains organisationally fragmented and that AAP continues to enjoy substantial support across much of Punjab.

"Punjab's politics cannot be understood without understanding the place of religious institutions,” he said. “The electoral consequences are not automatic, but neither can they be dismissed.”