Four Years of the AAP Government In Punjab: The Biggest Hits And Misses

The remarkable electoral journey of the AAP in Punjab commenced with the 2014 Lok Sabha elections when the party won four out of 13 seats it contested. The party’s success defied conventional electoral wisdom, as it was a niche party, formed only in 2012 with the single agenda of fighting corruption, pitted against two well-entrenched oldest parties of India.

In a state where region, religion, language, script, and caste have played crucial roles in varying manner in determining the electoral outcomes in successive elections since independence, the party success was also remarkable as it presented itself as a pragmatic, solution-based, pro-governance party with no core social constituency.

Also, in order to do well electorally a party needs to have a strong organisational structure, a certain ideology or a definitive positioning on the social, political and the economic issues. In addition, a winnable party needs a set of credible and strong state level leadership, especially in a state like Punjab, where a segment of electorates harbour anti-centre feeling. The AAP was handicapped on all these counts and therefore, its success as a debutant was viewed as an aberration, more so as the party, soon after its impressive debut, seemed poised for free-fall due to dissidence and desertion of the party’s state leaders.

However, by winning 20 seats and polling 23.7 percent of the votes in the 2017 assembly elections, the party emerged in the role of a game-changer by effecting a transition from the bipolar to triangular electoral system. After a dismal performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections when only Bhagwant Mann could register win in Sangrur constituency, second in a row, the party received an unprecedented win in 92 out of 117 assembly constituencies in the 2022 assembly elections, confirming that it is going to stay in the state. The 2024 Lok Sabha elections witnessed the party winning a modest three seats, an election which showed an incremental decline of the Akali Dal.

Having completed four years in office, the incumbent AAP is now gearing up for a tough 2027 election ahead. The recent elections in several states like Haryana, Maharashtra, Bihar, among others, have, however, shown that anti-incumbency is no longer such a decisive electoral factor. Rather, it is the performance of the party government that does matter much more, apart from the factors like the organisation, leadership, resources and campaign strategy. 

Sticking to the AAP government performance, let us see what were the promises made by the party in its manifestos/poll guarantees. Like earlier, the party in its 2022 election manifesto and campaign speeches promised to combat mafias of various hues, corruption, crimes, drugs, and also unemployment, if voted to power. In addition, it also promised a slew of welfare measures like massive investment in the education and health sectors in line with its ‘Delhi model’, and also freebies like cash transfer to women and subsidised electricity to every household. For this purpose, the party promised governance-related reforms, which would ensure better revenue generation. Ending the VIP culture was another constant promise to cut the public expenditure. With the farmers’ protest against the three farm bills in the background, the party promised that it would take measures to safeguard the income of the farmers so that no farmer in Punjab would be forced to commit suicides. The party, however, did not reiterate the 2017 promise to make farmers debt-free. The party reiterated the promise to punish the perpetrators of the desecration of the Sikh holy scripture, and subsequent police firing incident in 2015. 

In its report card, the Mann government has claimed to open Aam Aadmi clinics, provide free treatment to poor, improve the conditions of the government schools, continued supply of free electricity to farmers even during day-time, ensure extension of canal irrigation facility, and creation of thousands of jobs. It also recently declared the Sri Anandpur Sahib and Amritsar, as promised.

The opposition has, however, reminded the people of the party’s failure to fulfil the promise of creating twenty-five lakhs jobs, check the immigration of youth, or to provide minimum guaranteed support price for every crop. Aam Aadmi canteens have remained non-starters. As in the past, state universities remain in a pretty bad situation due to lack of government support. 

What is going to adversely affect the party’s electoral chance the hardest are the government’s failure on the following fronts: first, its inability to check the worrisome rise in gangsterism, ransom seeking, and organised crime in the state. It not only is detrimental to business but also creates fear psychosis. All mafias including ‘transport mafia, Reta Bajri Mafia, liquor mafia, cable mafia’, named in the party’s 2017 manifesto, continue to flourish, despite the government’s stated attempt to finish them. Real estate may be added here, as the government appears as property-dealer in its enthusiasm to acquire the farming land for colonisation. Second, farmers remain debt-ridden and their suicides continue being reported, though the numbers have come down. Recently, there were problems with the food-grains procurement due to the commission agents strike. Third, despite the setting up of integrated de-addiction and rehabilitation centres across the state, and the government recently declaring ‘all-out war’ against drug trade, the menace continues unabated, showing the entrenched nexus.

To its credit, the government has shown much more urgency in tackling the issue, compared to preceding governments. Fourth, the AAP government’s record on combating corruption has not been up to mark as even the party top leaders including legislators and ministers have been forced to resign after facing charges. The promised ‘Jan Lok Pal bill’ never happened, nor the office of Lok Pal has been strengthened. Fifth, the party promising to cut down the public expenditure by ending VIP culture is not visible on the ground. Worse, it is a common knowledge that state resources and assets are kept at the disposal of the Delhi-based AAP leaders, especially after the party’s defeat in Delhi. Sixth, in a border state neighbouring hostile Pakistan, the incidents of terrorist acts in the recent years like the grenade attacks on intelligence wing headquarters in Mohali, Gurdaspur police station, Punjab BJP headquarters in Chandigarh (UT), among others, have ignited the fear of the revival of militancy, a fear that has been fuelled by the wins of the separatists in Faridkot and Khadoor Sahib constituencies in the 2024 elections. Previously, in the 2022 by-poll held in Sangrur, Simranjit Singh Mann, an advocate of Khalistan, had won. Punjab Police, famed for taking on and neutralising the Pakistan-backed militants in the eighties, being unable to root out the criminals and terrorists, can be attributed to the institutional weakness that has seeped in due to the constant political interference. Seventh, growing state’s indebtedness due to the AAP government’s reckless populist policies and financial imprudence has been another worry as the party’s promise to bring a turnaround in the economy has fallen flat. It is only recently, with the forthcoming election in mind, the government organised an investors’ summit, with some success.

The inability of the AAP government to fulfil its poll promises is going to harm the electoral prospect of the party. As an organisation, the party has continued to suffer from lack of party cadres and broad-based support base, and also too much dependence on Delhi based leadership, even in everyday governance matters. The AAP, notably, has won in the assembly bye-elections namely Gidderbaha, Dera Baba Nanak, and Chabbewal in 2024 and in Ludhiana West in 2025, besides winning the 2025 local elections. However, the party in power has always had a distinct advantage in bye-elections, patronage and clientelism being the reality of an electoral democracy. 

The 2027 elections would be a different ballgame. The BJP, the party in power at the centre, with a strong cadre, now packed with parachuted state leadership, and unparalleled resources is most likely to contest with full force in all assembly seats, enthused by 18 per cent vote the party won in the 2024 elections. The party would ask the voters to be given a chance, like they did in the case of the AAP. The Congress, though ridden with factionalism, continues to retain decent support among both Hindus and Sikhs in the two-community states. Akali Dal despite its encouraging performance in the local elections, do not seem to have much of a chance, which might be an opportunity for the radical fringe elements. All in all, it is going to be a three-party contest in all probability, the only difference being the BJP (and not the Akali Dal) being the third party. Electoral issues would also be the same, figuring in all the contestant parties’ manifestos as would be the tenor of campaign rhetoric. As the saying goes, the more things change, the more they stay the same.

Ashutosh Kumar is Professor, Department of Political Science, Panjab University, Chandigarh

Views expresses are personal