From BC To AC

WASHINGTON

The visit was short on time but long onsubstance. Foreign Minister Natwar Singh’s two-day dash toWashington in between saying goodbye to Chinese Premier WenJiabao and saying hullo to Pakistan’s Gen. Pervez Musharrafwas a test in pushing the newly delivered envelope ofIndo-US ties. The results are awaited but the script isclear.

It is being written by President George Bush himself withmajor contributions from Secretary of State CondoleezzaRice, a cabinet member completely in sync with her boss.Bush met Natwar Singh in the Oval Office, a gesturedesigned to show the importance he attaches to improvingties. He bantered, he was effusive and appeared excitedabout the future. He has clearly put his weight behind thepartnership.

There is progress to report on several fronts -- nucleartechnology, space cooperation, India’s energy needs and theeconomic partnership. The Americans underlined the messagerepeatedly: "we are serious and want to do business."They want to use the next three years to radically reshapethe relationship and take it to a new level.

It is time to test the proposition, not create a fog ofdoubts. To belabour beyond the reasonable the"unreliability" of Americans as some are doing in Delhi isunsound. The "unreliable" label stems from the impositionof US sanctions in 1998 but without going into the meritsof sanctions as a policy tool, one must remember thesanctions were triggered by a clear Indian action -- thenuclear tests. India is unlikely to test again in the shortor medium term and jeopardise all that is riding on itscurrent posture.

Instead it must utilise the suddenly energised environmentin Washington -- largely because of Rice and her closeadvisers -- and push the envelope. Movement is noticeablein the US position on nearly every front. The mostsignificant marker of the Bush-Natwar bonhomie was a clearpolicy change on civil nuclear technology which came fromthe American president himself. It is now a "yes" from theWhite House, not a "maybe," and  a major step forward fromthe time when it was completely off the table and morerecently when it was on the menu but never really served.It is now up to the experts and lawyers on both sides tocook it, carve it and dish it out. A sale of US nuclearreactors to India can quickly take care of the trade gap.

The Good Friday package is the most original opening fromthe United States in years and it must be tested. Americansuse their words carefully, specially when speaking on therecord. But many in New Delhi have dismissed the March 25offer as a hallucination. This school of thought goessomething like this: "We have been suckered. Any statementby the Americans by definition means nothing." Subscribersto this viewpoint ignore facts and history. They ignore thefact that the US decision to allow American companies toparticipate in the bid for fighter jets for the Indian AirForce was announced after a written clearance from thePentagon. They see an "arms race" when the Americans offerto sell India weapons but cheerily accept the French andRussian offerings.

Then there is another school of thought shared by asubstantial section of the Indian bureaucracy which goessomething like this: "Maybe there is something to theAmerican offer but they can’t deliver so don’t make toomuch of it." It is a standard status quo argument whichallows everyone to go home at 5 pm having pushed the sameideas and files for one more day.

But the political message from the White House has alreadyshaken the Washington bureaucracy. Combine that with asecretary of state who has the president’s ear like fewbefore her. The smart set can read the tea leaves. Thosewho were earlier only "managing" the Indo-US relationshipand breathing oxygen into it when needed are today eager todeliver what the bosses want. Their focus is sharper andeagerness palpable to the other side that has witnessedboth the BC and AC phases -- Before Condi and After Condi.

The Rice-Singh meeting over a "working lunch" whichincluded baked goat cheese, macadamia-encrusted chickenbreast and passion fruit mousse, produced the big picturebut the details have been filled by the two sides. Theshadow of Pakistan is distinctly absent. Natwar Singh sayshe didn’t raise the issue -- for a change there was justtoo much else going on.

Rice said they talked "about how to push our relationshipto a new level, to improve our cooperation in a number ofareas, to accelerate our work in our next steps inStrategic Partnership Initiative, (and) to launch an energydialogue that will be led on our side by our EnergySecretary and on India's side by the head of its PlanningCommission." Montek Singh Ahluwalia is the man in the hotseat now, having been invoked no less than four times byNatwar Singh in his comments. He will lead the energydialogue encompassing currently the most difficult issue onthe bilateral plate -- the Iran-India gas pipeline. He hasthe prime minister’s confidence just as Rice has herpresident’s.

Rice is not afraid of bold moves and is looking for ways topush her department and other agencies forward. When Iasked her about US support for India’s bid for a permanentseat in the UN Security Council, she was more forthrightthan most. While she didn’t commit ahead of the diplomaticgame yet to be played out in full, she did lean forward abit speaking in terms of meeting Indian aspirations."International organizations in general will have to takeinto account India's growing role in the world in order tobe updated and to be effective. We are in broad discussionswith a number of partners about how to move forward on UNreform," she said.

Shirin Tahir-Kheli, the newly appointed advisor on UNreform, will be going to India to consult and devise astrategy. Although Rice said she was consulting "a numberof partners" about UN reforms, the only country she hasconsulted so far is Japan for obvious reasons. US supportfor Japan’s seat was decided some time ago. India will bethe second major partner to be brought into the circle.Tahir-Kheli, a Pakistani American, is a Bush familyloyalist who has found a job with both father and son. Herinput in the end is likely to be a small filler in a largecalculation. Whether Washington will cheerfully support,actively lobby or play distant on India’s bid to be apermanent member will be decided at the highest levels andfears about Tahir Kheli’s background and personalpreferences are largely irrelevant.

What is relevant is the knowledge that the large ship ofstate is changing course.