Hemant Soren’s Assam Gambit: Can JMM Turn Tribal Identity Into Political Power Beyond Jharkhand?

On February 1, Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren stood before a large gathering of Adivasis in Assam’s Tinsukia district and delivered a message that went beyond solidarity—it was a political signal. 

Urging Assam’s tribal communities to unite, Soren positioned himself not merely as a visiting chief minister but as a leader with the ambition—and confidence—to reshape the political destiny of Adivasis beyond his home state.

The message marked one of the clearest indications yet that Soren’s party, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), is preparing to expand its political footprint into Assam. In doing so, it is attempting to tap into a large and historically marginalised voter base whose support could alter electoral equations in a state traditionally dominated by the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

At the heart of this political outreach lies the Tea Tribe community and migrated Adivasis—descendants of labourers brought by the British from Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Bihar to work in Assam’s tea plantations. Despite their significant numbers and long presence in the state, many continue to be classified under the Other Backward Classes (OBC) category, even though their counterparts in their states of origin enjoy Scheduled Tribe (ST) status.

This unresolved demand for ST recognition has created both a grievance and a political opportunity.

The February 1 gathering was organised by the All Adivasi Students’ Association of Assam (AASAA), one of the key organisations leading the campaign for ST status. According to AASAA, more than one crore Adivasis and Scheduled Castes in Assam fall outside the constitutional protections granted to similar communities elsewhere. For decades, they have demanded parity, arguing that historical migration should not deprive them of rights recognised under the Constitution.

It is precisely this sentiment that the JMM is seeking to channel.

Over the past few months, the Jharkhand government has taken visible steps to engage with Assam’s Adivasi population. In January, a delegation led by Chamra Linda, Jharkhand’s Minister for Scheduled Tribes and Scheduled Castes Affairs, visited Assam to study the socio-economic conditions of Jharkhand-origin Adivasis. Earlier this month, another team of JMM MLAs, including Gumla legislator Bhushan Tirkey, travelled to the state for similar outreach.

Such efforts, while framed as welfare-oriented, are widely seen as laying political groundwork.

According to JMM leaders and Adivasi organisations, nearly 70 lakh tea garden workers and migrated Adivasis in Assam are in a position to influence electoral outcomes. Their presence is particularly significant in around 30 Assembly constituencies, making them an attractive political constituency for any party seeking to expand its base.

Anil Toppo, chief advisor to AASAA, believes the JMM’s intervention has struck a chord. 

“Even before the Jharkhand government’s team came, Chamra Linda ji was touring Assam,” Toppo told Outlook. “It feels like JMM may contest elections here. We defeated Congress earlier and brought the BJP to power, but they too did not give us ST status. If JMM contests, we will have to support them. JMM may not yet have a strong organisation here, but it has many supporters. If it contests alone, it could win four to six seats.”

For the JMM, Assam represents both an opportunity and a calculated risk. Since coming to power in Jharkhand in 2019 in alliance with the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the party has consolidated its image as a regional force rooted in tribal identity politics. Expanding into Assam would mark its first serious attempt to transform that identity into a cross-state political platform.

But such a move could strain its relationship with the Congress.

The Congress has historically enjoyed considerable support among Assam’s tea garden workers and tribal communities. As it attempts to rebuild its political strength against the BJP, the entry of a new claimant to the same voter base could complicate its electoral strategy.

Jharkhand Congress working president Bandhu Tirkey, who is also a senior observer for the Assam Assembly elections, believes cooperation rather than competition would serve both parties better.

“If JMM contests alone, it will hurt Congress—but the biggest loss will be to the migrated Adivasis themselves,” he said. “After seeing their condition, I would urge Hemant Soren ji to speak with Congress leaders. There should be dialogue. I don’t think JMM can win seats by contesting alone.”

Yet within the JMM, there is a growing belief that independent expansion is necessary to establish the party as a national tribal voice.

Bhushan Tirkey hinted at this shift in thinking. “Adivasis in Assam have been demanding ST status since Independence,” he said. “Why haven’t they been given their rights? Everyone has failed them. If people want JMM to contest for their rights, why shouldn’t we?”

Political analysts say the JMM’s Assam outreach reflects Soren’s broader ambition to emerge as a national Adivasi leader—a space that remains largely unoccupied in contemporary Indian politics.

Senior journalist Anand Kumar sees parallels with other identity-based political expansions. “Hemant Soren is now seen as a major Adivasi leader,” he said. “If JMM contests in Assam, it could cut into Congress’s tribal vote base. That could change electoral equations, especially in closely contested seats.”

However, the impact of such a move remains uncertain. The Tea Tribe vote in Assam is not monolithic. Over the past decade, the BJP has made significant inroads into tea garden areas, aided by welfare schemes, organisational outreach and promises related to land rights. While the Congress retains pockets of support, the BJP’s growing influence has reshaped the political landscape.

Mahmodul Hassan, a senior Assam-based journalist, says JMM’s entry could affect both parties—but not necessarily in predictable ways.

“The Tea Tribe community is divided. Some support the BJP, others support Congress,” he said. “If JMM contests, it could cut into both vote bases. But the Tea Tribes who support the BJP will not automatically shift to JMM. The real impact will vary from constituency to constituency.”

For Hemant Soren, the Assam outreach is also about political positioning beyond immediate electoral gains. By championing the cause of migrated Adivasis, he is reinforcing his image as a leader rooted in tribal identity and rights—a positioning that could carry resonance in other states with significant tribal populations, including West Bengal, Odisha and Chhattisgarh.

In West Bengal, for instance, Adivasis account for nearly 6 per cent of the population and play a decisive role in dozens of constituencies, particularly in regions such as Junglemahal and North Bengal. Like Assam, these areas have witnessed intense political competition, with parties seeking to consolidate tribal support.

Soren himself belongs to the Santhal community, one of the largest tribal groups in eastern India. His political rise—from the son of JMM founder Shibu Soren to chief minister and now a potential national tribal face—mirrors the broader evolution of tribal politics from localised struggles to organised electoral assertion.

Yet the challenges of expanding beyond Jharkhand remain formidable. Unlike in his home state, where the JMM has decades of organisational presence, the party lacks a strong grassroots network in Assam. Converting symbolic outreach into electoral success will require sustained organisational building, local leadership and strategic alliances.

It will also test whether tribal identity alone can transcend regional boundaries in India’s deeply localised political landscape.

For now, Soren’s Assam gambit has injected a new variable into the state’s politics. Whether it results in electoral gains or merely reshapes opposition dynamics, it has already achieved one objective: positioning the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha as more than a regional party.

In Tinsukia, Soren’s appeal to unity was framed as a call for justice. But politically, it was also a declaration of intent. The JMM is no longer content to remain confined to Jharkhand. It is testing whether the politics of tribal identity can travel—and whether Hemant Soren himself can emerge as its national standard-bearer.