Iran Protests: Khamenei’s Regime Is On Shaky Ground

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s theocratic regime, already battered by this year’s Israeli and US attacks, is now facing a dangerous threat from within. Protests have erupted across the country over spiralling price rises, driven by more than four decades of Western sanctions and a collapsing rial, which has plunged to a record low.

US President Donald Trump waded in by saying that if Iran "shoots and violently kills peaceful protesters,” the United States would "come to their rescue," adding that Washington was “locked and loaded and ready to go."

As is common, what began as economic anger has widened, drawing in other disaffected groups, including women. Chants of "Zan, Zandegi, Azadi" (Women, Life, Freedom), the popular protest slogan that defined the Mahsa Amini protests of 2022, are again being heard in some cities. According to reports at least seven people have been killed and scores injured. The regime’s dilemma is whether to crack down brutally and risk wider unrest or show restraint and project weakness.

The unrest comes as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu once again turns his gaze towards Iran, openly seeking to persuade U.S President Donald Trump to back or even join Israeli action against Tehran.

Earlier this week, Trump with Netanyahu standing beside him said: "Now I hear that Iran is trying to build up again, and if they are, we’re going to have to knock them down." He added that he would support Israeli military action if Iran continued what he described as its ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

Whether this is intended as psychological pressure on a besieged regime, or signals something more sinister, is unclear. What is evident is that popular rage at the mullahs is deep and widespread, and growing desperation is pushing Iranians onto the streets despite the likely consequences.

Many in the West are hoping that the protests spread and bring down the regime. US ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz encouraging the street protests wrote on X.

"The people of Iran want freedom. They have suffered at the hands of the Ayatollahs for too long. We stand with Iranians in the streets of Tehran and across the country as they protest a radical regime that has brought them nothing but economic downturn and war." This is in line with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s attempts during the 12-day war to appeal to Iranians to overthrow the regime.

Iran, at the moment, is weak and vulnerable. The military is at its weakest with its top leadership wiped out by Israel. Its much-vaunted air power and missile systems are in shatters. Rebuilding will take years, with nearly a third of Iran’s air defence system obliterated.

People are demoralised as the crushing sanctions made the sale of Iranian oil extremely difficult as secondary sanctions are also in place.

"With nearly 1.4 million riyal equalling one US dollar, the scale and number of mass protests across Iran is understandable. However, Iranians are also aware that just like Iraq, Syria, Libya etc. The US and Israel will not be interested in any smooth change in power. The threat of the Iranian nation itself is now too dangerous for the West and allies. Therefore, Reza Pahlavi's return will not reassure the masses much,’" says Adil Rasheed, Research Fellow at the New Delhi-based think tank Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.

"The pain is too unbearable to endure, but the struggling Iranian masses have only bad options in the days ahead. However, the regime is threatened and may soon start targeting US bases in the Gulf, which is bad news for the region, global oil prices and the Global financial markets,’" he adds.

President Masoud Pezeshkian does not want a brutal crackdown and has said the government should listen to the "legitimate demands" of protesters. Ordinary citizens are fed up with the regime that has brought a rich nation like Iran to this state. Many believe not so much on regime change as a change in foreign policy. It is time to make compromises and ensure that sanctions are lifted. People need a breather.

But can the protests bring down the regime? Very unlikely. Scholar and former diplomat Talmiz Ahmad says, "Yes, people are facing tremendous hardship, but I doubt that protests can bring down the government."

Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, reacting to Trump, fired back: "Trump should know US meddling in our internal affairs will plunge the entire region into chaos, yielding zero benefits for America while endangering their troops." Tehran Times noted that Larijani’s post got over 50,000 likes within hours.

He went on to say "People of America, beware—Trump ignites adventurism; safeguard your soldiers."

However, the future does not look bright for the besieged Iranian regime. While protests alone may not bring it down, the combination of deep public anger, economic collapse and external pressure has left Tehran dangerously exposed. Another confrontation with Israel appears increasingly likely, and any escalation would further destabilise the region. For now, the regime survives but on increasingly shaky ground.