Iran Plays Hormuz Card: De-escalation Or Missed Opportunity? 

Iran has placed a new proposal on the table to end the current standoff with the US. But it is already shadowed by scepticism in Washington. It has offered to reopen the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz if the United States eases its tightening blockade on Iranian ports, a move that has squeezed an already battered economy. 

Crucially, the offer decouples the immediate maritime crisis from the more complex nuclear dispute, suggesting that negotiations on the latter could follow at a slower pace. 

Iran believes that opening the waterways at the first stage, will also help to allay mutual distrust and suspicion and build confidence before moving to the more complicated negotiations on  the  nuclear issue. Opening the Strait of Hormuz will be welcomed by all countries as the economic pain is  being felt worldwide.

A top security meeting was convened at the White House to discuss Iran’s latest move. Unnamed officials suggest Donald Trump remains unconvinced, betting instead that sustained economic pressure will eventually force Tehran to concede to Washington’s broader demands. 

Secretary of state Marco Rubio, when asked about Iran’s offer to open the Strait of Hormuz, in an interview with Fox News said: "... when you talk about opening the straits, as something that’s always talked about – it’s important that straits be open.  But it’s not just the straits, If what they mean by opening the straits is, “Yes, the straits are open as long as you coordinate with Iran, get our permission or we’ll blow you up, and you pay us,” that’s not opening the straits. Those are international waterways.,’’ he explained. 

“They cannot normalise nor can we tolerate them trying to normalise a system in which the Iranians decide who gets to use an international waterway and how much you have to pay them to use it.’’ 

He also made it clear that the nuclear issue would not be left for later. Rubio said that any agreement by the U.S. would have "to definitively prevent them from sprinting towards a nuclear weapon at any point.” 

The nuclear issue remains a red line for Trump and was one reason for waging a war against Iran. 

Iran and Russia have excellent relations and have worked together in Syria and co-ordinated action during the fight against ISIS. Iran had provided Russia with drones in its war in  Ukraine. Moscow was one of the first countries to condemn the US-Israeli strikes on Iran that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. 

Moscow characterised the strikes as an “unprovoked act of armed aggression’’ by the US and Israel. There were rumours that his son Mojtaba Khamenei, the current Ayatollah, was treated for his injuries sustained during the attack in Moscow. That was mere speculation but underlines the close connection between Russia and Iran. 

Araghchi was welcomed with warmth in Saint Petersburg, where he met with President Vladimir Putin. The President praised the Iranian people as “bravely and heroically fighting for their sovereignty,” and said Russia would do everything possible to bring peace to the Middle East, Tass reported. Araghchi sought support from Moscow for Iran’s latest peace proposal. 

Putin told Araghchi, Russia was ready to do "everything that serves your interests, the interests of all the people of the region, so that peace can be achieved as soon as possible." Tass reported Putin saying that "Russia, just like Iran, intends to continue our strategic relationship."

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Kremlin foreign policy adviser Yury Ushakov and the head of Russia's military intelligence agency, Igor Kostyukov, were also in attendance. 

In the initial stage of the war, the world believed that Russia  would come to its aid as the two countries signed a 20-year comprehensive strategic  agreement in 2025 including defence, energy , technology and  financial  cooperation. 

But with Moscow already at war in Ukraine, there was little beyond extending diplomatic cover and issuing supportive statements. But now that assumption is under question, with reports that Moscow’s support may have gone beyond diplomacy.

There is talk of Russia providing real-time intelligence to assist Iran’s targeting of the enemy. It's not confirmed yet, but this is a widespread assumption and more so because after the initial days, Iran’s targeting was much more precise and the IRGC was able to hit US warships. Its radar systems as well as American military assets spread through the Gulf region. Russia has denied all these allegations of covert help to Iran. 

Iran has tried to gather support for its proposals from regional countries including Oman, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Pakistan, which has taken the lead as peace broker. Whether this latest diplomatic gambit opens a path to de-escalation or becomes yet another missed opportunity hinges on Washington’s response.