Can American Diplomacy Prevent The Collapse Of The Israel-Hamas Peace Deal?

Six days after US President Donald Trump hailed a new dawn in Gaza, Israel rained fire on the Strip amid reports that Hamas violated the ceasefire, killing two IDF soldiers. Netanyahu ordered over 20 airstrikes, hitting civilian sites and killing at least 15 Palestinians.

Has the US-brokered ceasefire begun to unravel, or can decisive American diplomacy prevent its collapse? 

With the US President heavily invested in the agreement, many hope the current violence will remain an isolated incident and that Washington will act swiftly to uphold the peace.

Crossfire of Accusations

According to Washington reports, Steve Witkoff, US Special Envoy, will travel to the region soon, joined by Vice President JD Vance and Jared Kushner. Dates are not announced. Hamas denied attacking the IDF. Reports say Israel informed the US, and Witkoff and Kushner urged caution to prevent escalating tensions.

Perhaps in response, on Monday morning, the day after the airstrikes, Israel reportedly said it would allow aid to resume into Gaza.

Did IDF Arm Anti-Hamas Militia To Create Conflict?

Many analysts believe Hamas hasn't attacked IDF soldiers, as it's weakened and can't fight a modern military with air support. Several anti-Hamas militia groups operate in Gaza, some of which were formerly used by the IDF for intelligence during its occupation.

Before withdrawing, the IDF armed these anti-Hamas militias to create internal conflict before international forces arrived. Most were former Fatah loyalists. Clashes between Hamas and the militias support this view. Hamas arrested and executed many. With media focused on prisoner releases, this went mostly uncovered. These groups acted as Israeli proxies.

“I believe that Netanyahu will continue this ground and air bombardment — currently under the pretext of retrieving the kidnapped bodies and adhering to the agreement, and later under the pretext of handing over the weapons. If there is no strong international pressure, especially from the Americans, Netanyahu’s government will continue the bombardment. This government will collapse if the war stops completely due to pressure from Ben Gvir and Smotrich,’’ says Adnan Abu Al-Haija, former Palestinian ambassador to India. 

Scepticism Remain Over US Ceasefire Claim

When the US announced the ceasefire, scepticism remained. Most observers believed that once the 20 hostages returned, Israel would only briefly pause before resuming the war. For far-right ministers, this was an opportunity to annex Gaza, remove Palestinians from the West Bank, and establish the Biblical promised land. Netanyahu, who opposes a two-state solution, relies on right-wing support. The war lets him postpone elections and avoid the court, since he is on trial for corruption. Most expect him to resume the war soon.

The 20-point agreement’s first phase required a ceasefire by Israel and the release of hostages by Hamas in 72 hours. Hamas released the hostages. The agreement stated Hamas would keep Israel updated. Israel’s bombing created over 55 million tonnes of debris, making it hard to find bodies.

Israel refused to allow the needed equipment. KP Fabian, retired diplomat, says Netanyahu is not complying and is looking for excuses to resume hostilities. 

The future of the peace deal hinges on whether the US President can leverage his influence to keep Netanyahu committed to the agreement. He has assured key regional players that he will ensure the ceasefire holds, indicating that US diplomatic intervention is crucial.

Trump has assured Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye that he will prevent further Israeli military action.

"In my opinion Israel is not interested in going back to open war but will engage in limited operations to destabilise the Gaza Strip," says Middle East analyst Mohammad Makram Balawi. "Israel's  genocidal war on Gaza has lost  damaged its image. It has lost  goodwill across the world. You see people protesting in England, in Spain, Italy, all across. Governments  are being forced to take notice. This is why Israel will not launch a full scale war. It needs to improve its public image," Balawi adds. If Balawi is correct, there is some hope.