Assam Assembly Elections 2026: Is Hemant Soren Becoming The Asaduddin Owaisi Of Adivasi Politics?

Within a month, two major public rallies by Jharkhand Chief Minister and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) president Hemant Soren in Assam have created visible unease within the Congress. While addressing a rally in Tezpur district on March 10, Soren once again emphasised the idea of tribal unity and invoked the slogan “Abua Disom, Abua Raj” (our land, our rule), by telling Adivasis that the rule in a tribal land should belong to the tribal people themselves.

 Earlier, on February 1, Soren had addressed a large gathering of Adivasis at an Adivasi Mahasabha in Tinsukia district, Assam, where he also appealed for unity among tribal communities.

Invoking Birsa Munda's slogan

The slogan “Abua Disom, Abua Raj” has deep historical roots. It was first used by Birsa Munda, the tribal freedom fighter, as a call for unity among Adivasis during the Ulgulan (rebellion) against British rule. Since then, the slogan has remained powerful among tribal leaders and intellectuals. During the last Jharkhand Assembly election, Soren adopted it as his campaign slogan and, after coming to power, even branded his government as the “Abua Sarkar” (our government).

However, how effective this political message will be in mobilising Assam’s tribal communities is to be seen. However, Soren’s latest rally has sparked speculation after the Jai Bharat Party hinted at contesting 40 seats in Assam in an alliance with the JMM. The statement has reportedly disturbed Congress leaders both in Assam and Jharkhand.

The political anxiety is quite evident from the fact that within two days of Soren returning from Assam, Assam Congress president Gaurav Gogoi and the party’s Assam in-charge Jitendra Singh travelled to Ranchi to meet him. Though, Gogoi officially described the meeting as a courtesy visit. However, political circles are abuzz that Congress is  exploring the possibility of offering a few seats to JMM in the Assam Assembly elections.

Although there has been no official announcement yet on whether JMM will contest the elections in Assam, but a tribal MLA from the party told Outlook India that JMM contesting the Assam elections is almost certain. Meanwhile, a senior tribal leader from the Jharkhand Congress indicated that the party may be willing to offer three seats to JMM as part of a possible alliance.

Observers see Soren’s growing political activity in Assam in two ways. First, it is an attempt to expand JMM’s political footprint beyond Jharkhand. Second, it could be a strategy to exert bargaining pressure on allies, reminding them that ignoring JMM in upcoming elections, similar to what happened in Bihar, could be a political mistake.  

Politics in Assam has traditionally revolved around a contest between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). After losing ground to the BJP over the past decade, Congress is trying to regain its political base, particularly among tribal communities and tea garden workers whose ancestors migrated from states such as Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Bihar.

These communities are exactly where Soren and the JMM see an opportunity. Many of these Adivasi groups have been fighting for recognition and rights for decades. One of the most influential organisations representing them is the All Adivasi Students’ Association of Assam (AASAA), which had organised the massive Adivasi Mahasabha in Tinsukia on February 1.

The key question now is whether JMM will settle for contesting three or four seats as part of an alliance, or whether it is pursuing a broader political strategy.

Senior journalist Anand Kumar believes Soren’s moves towards Assam signal a larger political strategy.

According to him, “One interpretation is that JMM is pressuring Congress. However, another is that the talk of a third front minus Congress and BJP, involving the Jai Bharat Party in Assam and Bengal, appears to be a strategy that could indirectly benefit the BJP. It seems Hemant Soren is moving towards becoming the Asaduddin Owaisi of Adivasi politics.”

The comparison refers to the way AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi has built a national political identity as a Muslim leader and contests elections in Muslim-dominated constituencies across states. In a similar manner, Soren is also being seen as a pan-Indian tribal leader, thereby targeting constituencies with tribal populations.

Assam and West Bengal could become the starting point for such an expansion.

 Further, Kumar also notes that the Jai Bharat Party has publicly claimed that it may contest 40 seats in Assam in alliance with JMM, and JMM has not yet denied the statement. According to him, the BJP might also prefer such a scenario if it leads to a split in opposition votes, which is quite similar to how Owaisi’s party affected elections in Bihar in both the 2020 and 2025. 

Political analysts believe that JMM’s entry into Assam could be particularly damaging for Congress because the party has always influenced tribal communities and tea garden workers.

Soren’s image as a strong tribal leader, and that too combined with JMM’s identity as a party rooted in tribal rights movements, could attract voters in these areas. If JMM fields candidates in tribal-dominated constituencies, it could definitely dent Congress’s traditional vote bank and reduce its vote share, and thereby potentially weaken its chances in several seats.

According to AASAA, more than 10 million Adivasis and Scheduled Caste communities in Assam are currently classified under the OBC category by the state government. These communities are descendants of labourers brought by the British in the 19th century to work in tea plantations.

Their long-standing demand is to receive the same constitutional recognition, which is the Scheduled Tribe (ST) or Scheduled Caste (SC) status, that similar communities enjoy in their original home states.

 Historically, most tea garden workers in Assam and Bengal came from tribal communities of Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. While they have received ST status in West Bengal, the same recognition remains pending in Assam. Locally, they are often referred to as “Tea Tribes” or migrated Adivasis.

Two months ago, a Jharkhand government delegation led by Minister Chamra Linda visited Assam to study the socio-economic condition of these Jharkhand-origin tribal communities and raise their demand for ST status.

 Approximately 30 assembly constituencies in Assam reportedly have a decisive population of these migrant tribal communities. JMM estimates that nearly seven million Adivasis and tea garden workers could influence electoral outcomes in the state.

JMM central general secretary Vinod Pandey says Soren’s outreach reflects a broader movement for tribal rights. “Hemant Soren is fighting for the rights of tribals across the country. Tribal communities from different states are inviting him to raise their issues. We went to Assam because we were invited. If the people there want JMM to contest elections, the party will certainly consider it,” Pandey said.

On the question of the meeting between Soren and Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi in Ranchi, Pandey described it as a courtesy meeting but acknowledged that election-related discussions were inevitable.

  Jharkhand Congress working president Bandhu Tirkey, who is also a senior election observer for Assam, noted that around 40 constituencies in Upper Assam have a strong presence of Tea Tribe voters.

“Congress believes candidates from the Tea Tribe community should contest these seats. As for Hemant Soren, he has not yet clarified how many seats he wants or with whom he will ally. Congress would prefer him to join us, and we are ready to offer some seats. But first, he needs to clarify his position,” Tirkey said.

Sources suggest JMM may be seeking 10–15 seats, a demand Congress is unlikely to accept easily. That is why JMM may be keeping alternative options, such as alliances with regional parties like the Jai Bharat Party. This would help them to increase their bargaining power.

  According to the 2011 Census, Assam has a population of 38.8 million, with a substantial share belonging to tribal and tea garden communities. Of the state’s 126 assembly seats, 19 are reserved for Scheduled Tribes and nine for Scheduled Castes.

In neighbouring West Bengal, 16 out of 294 assembly seats are reserved for Scheduled Tribes. Although tribals constitute only about 5.8% of the state’s population (around 5.3 million people), they play a decisive role in roughly 35 constituencies.

 Soren himself belongs to the Santhal community, which is the largest tribal group in West Bengal and constitutes nearly half of the state’s tribal population. Other major communities include Oraon, Munda, Bhumij and Ho.

Historically, these tribal regions supported the Left parties, but in the 2019 and 2021 elections, the BJP made significant inroads in tribal areas such as Junglemahal and North Bengal. Since then, the Trinamool Congress has attempted to regain influence through welfare schemes and local leadership.

As a result, even though tribals form a relatively small percentage of the population in West Bengal, their political influence is significant in determining electoral outcomes.

For now, Hemant Soren’s outreach in Assam raises more questions than answers. It could simply be an attempt to connect with tribal communities beyond Jharkhand and highlight their long-standing demands. But it could also signal a larger political ambition for the JMM. What is certain is that his recent visits have already stirred unease within Congress and sparked a wider debate about the future of tribal politics. If Soren continues to expand his engagement with Adivasi communities across states, he may gradually emerge as a broader tribal voice. How this plays out electorally and what it means for opposition unity will only become clear in the months ahead.