Keralam Assembly Polls 2026: Congress In Do-Or-Die Fight, Left Seeks To Retain Relevance

Keralam, which has elected 15 Assemblies since its formation, is now all set to elect the 16th. In more ways than one, this election could be among the most significant politically, as its outcome may influence the trajectory of the state’s social and political future.

For decades, the state’s politics has largely been dominated by two coalitions — the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF). The BJP, despite having a relatively strong organisational presence in the state, has managed to win only one Assembly seat in its history. However, with a steadily rising vote share in recent elections, the party and the NDA are hoping to break that jinx this time around.

Why is it important

Kerala, which had alternated power between the LDF and the UDF for decades, broke with that pattern in the last Assembly election by voting the government led by Pinarayi Vijayan back to power. The tenure of the first Vijayan government was particularly eventful, as the state endured two devastating floods and the COVID-19 pandemic, which claimed thousands of lives. According to many observers, the government’s handling of these crises helped propel the LDF back to power with an increased majority.https://www.outlookindia.com/topic/congress

In the 140-member Assembly, the LDF now has 95 members and the UDF 41. In 2016, the LDF had 91 seats, the UDF 41, and the NDA one.

The victory also helped the CPIM to retain a presence on the national political map after it was routed in West Bengal and Tripura. The Left, which once ruled three states, is now largely confined to Kerala. For the LDF, therefore, repeating its winning streak in the state is crucial to maintaining its political relevance nationally.

For the Congress, the stakes are equally high. Having been out of power in the state for a decade, the party desperately needs a victory to revive its prospects. With the BJP making aggressive attempts to expand its base, even Congress insiders admit that a win is essential to keep the party organisation intact. Moreover, another defeat could prompt some allies — including the influential Indian Union Muslim League — to reconsider their long-standing association with the Congress. For different reasons, therefore, victory is crucial for both the major fronts.

What is at stake?

Since assuming office, the government led by Pinarayi Vijayan has foregrounded development as its central plank. Critics say the administration has shed some of the ideological rigidity allegedly associated with the Left and adopted a more pragmatic approach, pushing aggressively for infrastructure development and capital investment. The government is once again banking on this development record as a key election issue.

Challenges before the LDF

Beyond the development narrative, the LDF government is also facing a series of allegations and political challenges. These include the alleged involvement of party leaders in the Sabarimala gold theft case, accusations of nepotism, and claims of a nexus between some police officials and the Sangh Parivar. There have been lot of criticism in the functioning  of the public health system. The increasing number of youth migrating to Western countries for higher studies,  according to critics, reflects the state of higher education in the state. In addition, organisational issues within the Communist Party of India (Marxist) have added to the pressure on the ruling front.

Opposition’s position

For the Congress, the upcoming election is widely seen as a do-or-die battle — not just in Kerala but also in terms of the party’s national standing. The Congress leadership has increasingly looked at the state as a crucial political base. This was evident when Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka chose to contest from Wayanad in the Lok Sabha elections.

However, the party continues to grapple with internal factionalism. Competition among leaders for greater influence has exposed a lack of cohesion within the organisation, even though the leadership maintains a united front publicly. The party is also facing pressure over ticket distribution, with several senior leaders — including former KPCC president and MP K. Sudhakaran — urging that their supporters be accommodated.

Despite these challenges, the Congress-led UDF remains confident. Much of this confidence stems from the local body elections held in December, where the front secured a majority of seats across the three-tier system as well as in several corporations. UDF leaders argue that the results reflect an emerging anti-incumbency sentiment among voters.

Multiple election surveys conducted by various news channels suggest that a closely contested battle is likely. Some political observers say that while there may not be a strong anti-incumbency wave, a certain degree of governance fatigue is visible among sections of the electorate.

What lies ahead for the NDA

The BJP has won only one Assembly seat in Kerala’s history — the Nemom constituency in 2016. However, the party failed to retain the seat in 2021, when the CPI(M) wrested it back.

Since the government led by Narendra Modi came to power at the Centre, the BJP’s vote share in Lok Sabha elections in Kerala has steadily increased. However, the party has struggled to translate that support into Assembly victories — a trend seen in both the 2016 and 2021 elections. According to the 2024 Lok Sabha estimates, the BJP was ahead in about 11 Assembly segments. Yet in the recent local body elections, although the party managed to win the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation, its vote share declined compared with the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. This time, however, the party hopes to win at least three to five seats.

Key electoral factors

Minority votes, which account for nearly 48 per cent of the electorate in Kerala, remain a crucial determinant in the state’s politics. Muslim votes have largely remained consolidated behind the UDF, partly due to the presence of the Indian Union Muslim League.

Christian voters — another significant segment — appeared to shift somewhat towards the BJP, particularly in central Kerala during the Lok Sabha elections. However, the local body polls suggested that a considerable section of these voters may have moved back towards the UDF. The opposition’s confidence largely rests on this trend.

Ultimately, the outcome may depend on whether the development projects and welfare measures highlighted by the LDF can outweigh governance fatigue or any perceived anti-incumbency. Whatever the verdict, a victory either for the Left or for the UDF could significantly reshape the political trajectory of Kerala.