Democrats Win Congress, But Trump Retains His Grip On US Foreign Policy

Democrats may have wrested control of Congress from Republicans in the 2026 US midterm elections, but their victory is unlikely to give them much control over President Donald Trump's foreign policy. Despite facing greater scrutiny at home, Trump will retain considerable authority over military operations and diplomatic decisions during the final two years of his presidency.

From the war with Iran and relations with Israel to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and ties with China, Trump's foreign policy is likely to remain largely within his control. The central question is whether the Republican losses will leave Trump chastened or embolden him to take more dramatic steps to shape his legacy in America's relations with allies and adversaries. According to Reuters, analysts believe that a change in congressional control will increase scrutiny of the president but offer Democrats limited power to directly intervene in his foreign policy decisions.

Ukraine And Israel Could Become Key Battlegrounds In Congress

One of the incoming Democrats' priorities will be to revive American support for Ukraine, which has been under pressure from Trump as it fights Russia's full-scale invasion, launched in February 2022. Democrats hope to persuade more Republicans to support fresh assistance to Kyiv and secure the two-thirds majorities in both chambers required to override a presidential veto. Trump has halted direct US assistance to Ukraine.

Reuters reported that Trump's decision to lift US sanctions on Russian diesel exports as part of the deal prompted criticism, including from some Republicans, reinforcing concerns that Washington was increasingly siding with Moscow.

Democrats are also looking to use their congressional majority to repair relations with European allies and Canada. However, analysts believe lawmakers alone may struggle to restore the trust of governments unsettled by Trump's tariffs and pressure tactics.

Israel is another major foreign policy issue on which the incoming Congress could challenge the administration. Trump is expected to face a Congress less supportive of Israel than ever before, with some Republicans also questioning their party's traditional backing for Washington's closest Middle East ally.

Several Democratic candidates who won in the midterms were progressives who campaigned against military assistance to Israel and the US-Israeli war on Iran. They intend to push for an end to billions of dollars in annual American assistance to Israel.

Reuters reported that Trump announced on Election Day that Washington would end around $4 billion in annual funding to Israel after this year, although he did not provide details on how the arrangement would be terminated. The US is expected to continue weapons sales to Israel, and questions remain over whether Trump has the legal authority to end the existing assistance arrangement.

Israel's military campaign in Gaza, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's embrace of Trump and the Republican Party, and a wave of settler violence in the occupied West Bank have already eroded decades of bipartisan support for Israel in Washington. Despite the Democrats' plans, Trump's veto power could limit their ability to force significant changes to American policy.

Iran War Puts Trump Under Pressure As Democrats Seek To Curb His Powers

The conflict with Iran remains the most immediate foreign policy challenge for Trump, with the eight-month war contributing to rising US petrol prices and falling presidential approval ratings. The midterm results illustrated voter backlash against the economic consequences of the conflict, which Trump acknowledged on Wednesday had contributed to Republican losses in both chambers of Congress.

Despite the electoral setback, Trump insisted he had no regrets about attacking the Islamic Republic, arguing that the military campaign was necessary to prevent Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Iran has maintained that it has never sought to acquire one.

The war has also become a central point of criticism from Democrats, who accused Republicans of surrendering Congress' war-making powers and giving Trump a free hand in international affairs. Their objections extended beyond Iran to his approach towards Russia's war in Ukraine, his tariffs campaign, his capture of Venezuela's president and deadly boat strikes off Latin America.

Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said on Wednesday that his party's mandate was to put a check on “Trump's chaos at home and abroad” and end the Iran war.

However, presidents have historically enjoyed extensive freedom in directing foreign policy and military operations. William Wechsler, senior director of Middle East programs at the Atlantic Council, said a Democratic-controlled Congress could obstruct Trump's domestic legislative agenda but would have limited ability to restrict his powers as commander-in-chief.

“A Democratic Congress has the ability to stop Trump's domestic legislative agenda, but it doesn't have much ability to stop a president from exercising his powers as commander-in-chief,” Wechsler said.

Democrats' principal tools could include congressional investigations, confirmation hearings for Trump's nominees and the power to influence funding for his foreign operations. However, analysts believe their leverage over his military decisions will remain limited.

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly, while not responding directly to Reuters' questions about the implications of the election results, defended Trump's foreign policy record.

“President Trump has effectively restored American strength on the global stage ... The president will continue to work with anyone to put America first and improve the livelihoods of families across the country, and his foreign policy decisions have never been motivated by politics."

Iran Escalation Or Negotiations: What Will Trump Do Next?

The electoral setback has raised questions about whether Trump will scale back American involvement in the conflict or pursue further military action. He faces three broad options: launching another round of airstrikes, pursuing a negotiated exit or maintaining the existing stalemate, which has kept global energy prices high and Gulf neighbours on edge.

Iranian leaders have gloated over what they see as Trump's humiliation at home. However, people in Washington familiar with the deliberations believe the president could still authorise military action. One source said Trump now had nothing to lose politically.

Sina Toossi, an Iran specialist at the Center for International Policy in Washington, warned that escalating the conflict would not necessarily produce a favourable outcome for the US.

“Escalation offers no clear path to victory and risks compounding the very economic grievances that drove voters to punish Republicans,” Toossi said.

Further hostilities could also deepen divisions within Trump's MAGA movement, where a growing number of supporters are unhappy with his departure from his 2024 campaign promise to avoid foreign interventions.

Vice President JD Vance distanced himself from Trump's Iran policy on Wednesday, questioning whether the conflict was worth the cost and blaming it for the Republican Party's electoral wipeout.

Trump's Lame-Duck Presidency Could Bring More Military Action Abroad

Beyond Iran, analysts are concerned that Trump's reduced domestic political influence could lead him to focus more heavily on foreign affairs during the final two years of his presidency. Presidents entering their lame-duck phase, when they are barred from seeking re-election and their influence at home begins to wane, have often turned their attention towards international affairs.

Some experts, however, warn that Trump's impulsiveness could create further instability in the Middle East or trigger confrontations elsewhere. Cuba is among the countries that could face increased pressure from Washington. Trump has repeatedly threatened the Communist-ruled island and placed it under an oil blockade.

Laura Blumenfeld, a foreign policy analyst at Johns Hopkins University, warned that Trump could respond to political pressure by using his presidential powers to launch unilateral military action abroad.

“If triggered and cornered, Trump may elect to flex his presidential powers through unilateral use of force abroad,” Blumenfeld said.

Trump's foreign policy during the remainder of his second term could ultimately be shaped by how he wants his presidency to be remembered. So far, his efforts to leave a mark on international affairs have relied heavily on American military power abroad.

Ross Harrison, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said Trump's concern was leaving an imprint on the world, irrespective of how that legacy might be viewed.

“He’s concerned about his legacy of having left an imprint on the world, not necessarily a positive imprint,” Harrison said during a webcast organised by the Washington think tank.