Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal: Why Donbas, NATO And Security Guarantees Stand In The Way

Russia and Ukraine are preparing to resume trilateral negotiations for the first time since February, but the differences that have stalled previous attempts to end the war remain unresolved. As delegations from Moscow, Kyiv and Washington are due to meet in Abu Dhabi on November 10 and 11, the central questions are whether Russia will soften its territorial demands, what security guarantees Ukraine can secure and whether the United States can persuade both sides to consider compromises.

The US-brokered talks come as President Donald Trump renews efforts to end Russia's war against Ukraine. The conflict began in 2014 with Russia's seizure and annexation of Crimea and the outbreak of fighting in the Donbas. Russia launched its full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022. The Abu Dhabi agenda includes post-war security arrangements, de-escalation and humanitarian issues.

What Is On The Agenda In Abu Dhabi?

The two-day meeting will bring together US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, a Ukrainian delegation led by Rustem Umerov, head of Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service, and a Russian team headed by Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky. The Ukrainian delegation also includes President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov and parliamentary faction leader Davyd Arakhamia. Russia's delegation also includes Deputy Foreign Ministers Sergei Ryabkov and Mikhail Galuzin, military intelligence chief Igor Kostyukov and deputy chief of the General Staff's operational department Yuri Zhigarlovsky.

The meeting is the first trilateral round since February 18, when representatives of the three countries met in Geneva. Three rounds of US-mediated negotiations have taken place this year, including two in Abu Dhabi in January and February. The diplomatic process subsequently lost momentum, with Washington's attention also drawn towards the war involving Iran.

European representatives from France, Germany, the United Kingdom and Italy, along with officials from NATO and the European Union, are also expected in Abu Dhabi. However, Moscow has opposed their participation in the trilateral negotiations. US envoys are expected to hold separate consultations with European representatives on Ukraine's post-war security and the wider European security architecture, as Washington seeks to persuade Moscow to accept a broader negotiating process. Kyiv also plans separate discussions with its European allies, while Russia maintains that the formal negotiations should remain trilateral.

US special envoy Witkoff has said discussions will focus on post-war security arrangements, de-escalation, humanitarian efforts and steps towards peace. Zelenskyy has also identified an energy ceasefire, unblocking the Black Sea, extended prisoner exchanges and preparations for a meeting between the three countries' leaders as priorities.

Territorial Disputes Remain The Biggest Obstacle

The question of territory remains one of the most difficult issues confronting negotiators. Russia claims to have annexed four Ukrainian regions — Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson — in September 2022, although it does not control all the territory it claims. Moscow's broader demand is for Ukraine to withdraw from all four regions. The immediate sticking point in the talks, however, is Putin's demand for the entire Donbas, including areas of Donetsk and Luhansk that remain under Ukrainian control.

Moscow has also demanded that Ukraine abandon its bid to join NATO and accept restrictions on its military capabilities. Other conditions include changes to Ukraine's policies on the Russian language and the Moscow-affiliated Orthodox Church, according to the Associated Press. Putin has rejected a general halt in hostilities, arguing that it would allow Ukrainian troops to rest and replenish their weapons stocks, the Associated Press reported.

There are, however, differing assessments of whether either side might consider a compromise. US negotiators believe Putin and Zelenskyy may be willing to compromise on the question of territory, with each ceding some ground, a US official told Reuters. Any territorial agreement would likely come towards the end of negotiations, after other issues, including post-war security arrangements, had been addressed.

Under the proposed deal, Ukraine could receive an end to the war, security guarantees and a roadmap towards European Union accession, Reuters reported. However, a senior Ukrainian official strongly denied that Kyiv was considering territorial concessions, saying the issue could only be discussed at a meeting between the two presidents and alongside appropriate security guarantees.

Zelenskyy has meanwhile argued that Ukraine's recent battlefield performance has strengthened its negotiating position. Pointing to Ukrainian advances in Donetsk, he said Russian military losses had increased Kyiv's leverage. Moscow disputes Zelenskyy's claim that Russian forces are suffering record losses.

Security Guarantees And Europe's Role

Security guarantees are expected to be central to the Abu Dhabi discussions. Ukraine wants assurances that Russia will not launch another invasion after a ceasefire or peace agreement. Zelenskyy has sought guarantees modelled on Article 5 of NATO's founding treaty, which treats an armed attack against one member as an attack against all. Ukraine is not a NATO member and would need a separate agreement establishing the nature of such commitments.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said that security guarantees will be central to reaching an agreement, but that any arrangement must be acceptable to both Ukraine and Russia. Explaining the US position, he said that Ukraine must be able to "feel secure after the war" and stressed that the guarantees would have to be something "that Russia agrees to as well in order for it to work". Rubio said discussions had covered what post-war security arrangements could look like, adding that these guarantees would be critical to securing Ukraine's agreement to a settlement. However, he cautioned on Monday that the process still had "a ways to go", according to Al Jazeera.

Moscow, meanwhile, opposes Ukraine joining NATO and has rejected the possibility of European troops being stationed on Ukrainian territory after a peace agreement. Russia's security demands also extend beyond Ukraine. In draft security proposals published in December 2021, before its full-scale invasion, Moscow demanded that NATO refrain from deploying additional military forces and weapons in European countries that joined the alliance after May 1997. NATO rejected the proposals.

Trump has suggested that a wider security agreement could involve the entire European continent. European governments have pushed back against the prospect of Washington and Moscow determining the region's security arrangements without their participation. The European Union has also insisted that it must be involved in discussions affecting its security.

Finnish political scientist Arkady Moshes told Al Jazeera that Ukraine would find it difficult to accept a settlement that prevented it from choosing its alliances, determining its security future or maintaining its military capabilities. These questions extend beyond the immediate territorial dispute and concern Ukraine's sovereignty after the war.

Is A Breakthrough Likely?

The most realistic outcome from the Abu Dhabi meeting may be progress on specific issues rather than a comprehensive peace agreement. Prisoner exchanges, humanitarian arrangements and a possible ceasefire covering energy infrastructure could offer areas for limited progress, even as the territorial dispute and disagreements over Ukraine's future security remain unresolved.

Trump announced on October 11 that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an energy ceasefire, reviving a proposal he had first raised in mid-September. However, Zelenskyy said Kyiv was still awaiting details from Washington, and Moscow did not confirm the arrangement. Attacks continued, with Ukraine escalating strikes on Russian oil refineries and Russia hitting Ukraine's electricity infrastructure and cities, Reuters reported.

Ukrainian lawmaker Davyd Arakhamia, who is part of Kyiv's delegation, has played down expectations of an immediate breakthrough. Speaking to Deutsche Welle, he said: "I don't think there will be a breakthrough, after there was such a long break in the negotiation process." He added: "Simply the fact that trilateral talks are being resumed can be counted as a success."

The immediate test for Washington will be whether it can keep negotiations moving beyond the Abu Dhabi meeting, make progress on security guarantees and persuade Moscow to accept a wider diplomatic process involving Europe. Unless Russia and Ukraine soften their positions on territory and post-war security, the talks are unlikely to produce a comprehensive peace agreement.