South Bengal Scripts Mamata's Swansong As BJP Storms TMC Bastions

With the BJP poised to unfurl the saffron flag in West Bengal for the first time, the gaps in TMC’s electoral preparation and understanding stare them in the face. As latest trends suggest, BJP nears a 2/3rd majority and the TMC has fallen below the 100-seat mark, a stark shift from the electoral landscape in the previous assembly elections of 2021.

While the BJP was expectedly to perform well in North Bengal - a region which had turned into their bastion over the last few years, this year they have managed to create major inroads into traditional TMC strongholds in crucial districts of southern and western Bengal.

In Jhargram and Paschim Medinipur, which fall under the Jangal Mahal area of the state, the TMC had won all 4 seats in the former and 13 out of 15 seats in the latter. The belt which was influenced by supremo Mamata Banerjee’s control over the dynamics of Kurmi and ST politics, and post-naxalite deescalation, has completely swung over to the saffron camp this year. BJP leads in all 4 seats of Jhargram, while taking a strong control over Paschim Medinipur, leading in 13 out of 15 seats - in what stands to be an absolute reversal of fortunes.

In the Presidency region of the state, a TMC-stronghold, the BJP has also made significant gains to dent TMC’s consolidation of urban votes. 

In North 24 Paraganas, which faced the maximum SIR deletions among all districts at over 12 lakhs, the BJP has taken leads in over 23 seats out of 33, in sharp contrast to 2021, where the TMC managed to win 28 assembly constituencies. BJP’s lead, thus signifies, further consolidation of Matua votes in the area which analysts had predicted could shift towards the TMC in the aftermath of the SIR. In the six out of 7 constituencies which falls under the Dum Dum region of the district, the BJP is control, on the way to secure statement wins against major TMC heavyweights like Bratya Basu (incumbent state education minister) and Chandrima Bhattachary (state Finance Minister), and first-time candidate Devadeep Purohit, a journalist-turned politician, who was being touted to receive major a portfolio if the TMC retained power in the state.

In the 30 seats of South 24 Paraganas, where the BJP failed to win a single seat in 2021, it has made discernible improvement, taking leads in 11 seats, which might prove to be crucial in its momentum towards the finishing-line. With BJP denting the traditional support base which the TMC has enjoyed in the district with faces like Abhishek Banerjee (MP, Diamond Harbour), Saayoni Ghosh (MP, Jadavpur), Aroop Biswas (MLA, Tollygunj) taking charge, analysts believe it points BJP’s success at appealing to urban voters and a divided minority base in the area.

In Kolkata’s 11 seats, where the BJP did not find footing in a single seat the last time the state witnessed assembly elections, the BJP has managed to take sizeable leads in 5 seats this time, putting a halt to TMC’s run in the capital. The loss of Major TMC face Dr Sashi Panja, the incumbent minister for Industries, Commerce & Enterprises and Department of Women and Child Development and Social Welfare from her constituency of Shyampukur in North Kolkata stands to be a major blow to the TMC. 

In two other crucial districts of the Presidency region,  which were earlier comfortable cushions for Mamata Banerjee’s party, the TMC has faced shocking outcomes. In Howrah’s 16 seats, BJP leads in 9, yet another contrasted image from 2021, where it had failed to secure a single seat. In its adjacent district, Hooghly with its 18 seats also dealt a major blow to the TMC, giving BJP the upper-hand in 11 seats in contrast to 4 seats it had managed to win in 202.

Purba Medinipur, which had witnessed an almost even contest in 2021, saw TMC edge past the BJP in 9 seats out of 16. In 2026, it stands to be the BJP’s biggest statement, as it has refused to let TMC lead in a single seat out of 16. The region, which houses the Adhikari family bastion, reflects the BJP’s momentum in the state, where LoP and BJP’s CM probable Suvendu Adhikari has sealed the Nandigram seat by over 9000 votes.

According to analysts, for the BJP, which has received around 46 per cent votes, an increase of almost 8 percentage points from 2021, South Bengal comprising of Presidency region has served to be the game-changing ground playing a defining role in establishing its unprecedented rout of the TMC.

All updates are according to ECI data and latest trends.