Bihar Elections 2025: Why Bihar Remains Hard to Win for Both BJP and Congress

In January, Rahul Gandhi, the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, visited poll-bound Bihar for the first time to address the Samvidhan Suraksha Sammelan. “This tour is a response to the constitutional challenges thrown by the BJP and the Sangh,” he said. The next month, he visited Patna to attend the birth anniversary celebrations of senior freedom fighter and Dalit leader Jaglal Choudhary. “The purpose of this visit is to strengthen the alliance in the state and to re-energize the workers,” he said. 

In April, Rahul joined Congress’ Kanhaiya Kumar’s ‘migration roko, naukari do’ yatra in Begusarai. He visited Patna again in mid-April. He first watched the movie Phule and then participated in the Shiksha Nyay Samvad programme in Darbhanga. During the visit, he demanded reservations in private institutions and targeted Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the issue. On June 6, he addressed a conference of the extremely backward classes in Nalanda. He also visited the village of “mountain man” Dashrath Manjhi and met his family. On July 11, he visited Patna to join the Bharat Bandh to protest against the alleged irregularities in the electoral roll exercise undertaken by the Election Commission of India.  

It’s not a coincidence that the Congress leader has visited the state a couple of times ahead of the polls, scheduled at the end of this year. Modi, too, joined the poll bandwagon by visiting Madhubani in Bihar right after the Pahalgam terror attack in April and assured the country, in English, that the terrorists will be given a befitting reply soon. 

“Today, from the land of Bihar, I want to tell the whole world that India will identify, track and punish every terrorist and his mastermind in a way that they would not have even imagined. We will destroy them,” he said. After Operation Sindoor, Modi visited Vikramganj on May 30 and said: “I have returned to Bihar fulfilling the promise I made in Madhubani. The hideouts of the terrorists have been destroyed, and they have received a punishment worse than they could have imagined.”

While enlisting the achievements of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) during his visit to Siwan on June 20, Modi said: “Bihar will now become a global engine. It will play an important role in the country's journey to become the third economic superpower.” In the same rally, he targeted the Congress and the RJD and said: “The two have looted Bihar. Jungle Raj was at its peak during the RJD regime. Now they want to come back to power and indulge in Jungle Raj again. The people of Bihar will not forgive them.” 

Modi made three consecutive visits in three months after the Pahalgam terror attack and laid the foundation stones of projects worth crores. On July 18, he visited Motihari and inaugurated projects worth Rs 7,200 crore. Bihar’s electoral landscape has remained largely bipolar, a contest between two major alliances—the Grand Alliance striving to capture power and the NDA trying hard to retain it. Two national parties—the Congress and the BJP—are at the core of both alliances, making the polls like a chess match.

The Congress is working to strengthen its position within the INDIA bloc, while the BJP is seeking to transform its role in the NDA from a stakeholder to a clear leader. Yet, the ground reality remains that neither party has independently managed to dominate Bihar’s political space. For over four decades, the BJP has struggled to fully establish itself, while the Congress has failed to reclaim its lost ground. Both have relied on regional parties to secure power in the state.

With a population ranking third in India, Bihar holds significant political weight with 243 Assembly and 40 Lok Sabha seats. Its complex caste equations, history of social movements, and politically conscious electorate influence national trends. For the BJP, Bihar is crucial for promoting its Hindutva and development narrative among rural and backward communities. For the Congress, it is an opportunity to regain lost voter base and assert itself as the spine of opposition unity at the national level.

Modi and BJP’s Strategy

Modi has visited Bihar four times since April, inaugurating and announcing development projects worth nearly Rs 80,000 crore. These visits focused on politically weaker areas for the BJP, particularly Rohtas, Shahabad, and Siwan, where around Rs 60,000 crore of the total allocations have been made.

Historically, the BJP’s presence in Bihar has been negligible without the support of the JD(U). The 2015 Assembly elections demonstrated this clearly—after Nitish Kumar broke ties with the BJP and allied with Lalu, the BJP was reduced to 53 seats, down from 91 in 2010, despite the Modi wave.

The BJP’s journey in Bihar began with the JP Movement, gaining 8.4 per cent vote share and 21 seats in 1980. However, it fell to just five seats in 1985. The Ram Janmabhoomi movement in the late 1980s helped boost both vote share and seat count, but the rise of Mandal politics in the 1990s marginalised the party further. In 1995, the BJP won just two seats.

The 1996 alliance with Nitish’s Samata Party [later the JD(U)] helped the BJP rebuild. Their coalition achieved a majority in 2005, with the BJP winning 55 seats and the JD(U) winning 88. This alliance peaked in 2010 with the BJP securing 91 seats. But when the JD(U) exited the alliance, the BJP’s seat count again dropped significantly.

Senior journalist Pushyamitra notes that the BJP is far from being able to win Bihar on its own. He argues that ensuring a victory for its alliance is itself a tough challenge, especially as Nitish’s image weakens and Tejashwi Yadav gains traction as a strong alternative.

“The BJP has no prominent face in Bihar apart from Nitish. Leaders like Samrat Choudhary lack broad acceptability. Replacing Nitish will only be considered after ensuring an alliance win,” says Pushyamitra. 

He adds that while the BJP has managed sweeping victories in states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar’s socio-cultural context presents a unique challenge. “Bihar has historically resisted Hindutva since the times of Buddha and Mahavir. Also, while Lohia and JP hailed from UP, their socialist politics thrived in Bihar.”

The BJP’s caste strategy, including outreach to extremely backward castes (EBCs) and Dalits, has faced setbacks. The party’s support for caste-based census upset parts of its core upper-caste base. Without Nitish, the BJP risks losing crucial transfer votes from Kurmi, Koeri, and other backward groups.

The BJP’s core vote bank includes upper castes, Baniyas, Telis, Halwais, and other economically upward OBCs. To expand its reach, the BJP is leaning on development promises and symbolic gestures such as PM Modi repeatedly invoking the names of EBCs and Mahadalits in his speeches.

Rahul Gandhi and Congress: Rebuilding Old Ties

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has made seven visits to Bihar this year, focusing largely on Dalit politics and symbolic engagements. His renewed activism is seen as an attempt to revive the party’s traditional vote bank.

On January 18, he attended a Constitution Protection Conference in Patna. On February 5, he participated in the birth anniversary of freedom fighter and Dalit leader Jaganlal Choudhary. Following these visits, the Bihar Congress was significantly reorganised. Lalu aide Akhilesh Pratap Singh was replaced by Rajesh Kumar (a Dalit MLA from Aurangabad) as the new state president. The number of Dalit district presidents increased from two to five, while the share of upper castes dropped from 26 to 14.

In May, Rahul visited Ambedkar student hostels in Darbhanga and met students from Dalit and backward communities. In June, he visited Gaya and met the family of Dashrath Manjhi, the Mountain Man.

These moves send a clear message—the Congress aims to be seen not as dependent on the RJD but as a strategic partner. The appointment of a Dalit state chief, and a Muslim as legislature party leader, signals an effort to maintain social balance and reclaim its traditional vote base, particularly Dalits, Muslims, and Brahmins.

Political analyst Syed Shahroz Qamar observes: “The Congress is trying to revive its base—Dalits, Muslims, Brahmins—while also targeting the backward communities. By raising the issue of social justice, promoting leaders like Kanhaiya Kumar, and engaging with Pappu Yadav in Seemanchal, the Congress is striving for broader social appeal.”

However, he also emphasises that the Congress cannot succeed without the RJD. “The RJD remains the largest party in the INDIA bloc in Bihar with both mass base and leadership. The strength of the Congress lies in being a part of this alliance.”

Between 1951 and 1985, the Congress dominated Bihar and formed the government multiple times. However, its popularity declined from 1985 onwards, culminating in its ouster in 1990 when Lalu-led Janata Dal won 122 seats and formed the government.

Caste remains the central axis of Bihar’s politics. After independence, upper castes ruled the state for two decades. The first chief minister was from the Bhumihar caste, followed by others from Rajput and Brahmin backgrounds. The rise of Dalit and backward caste consciousness, particularly after the Mandal movement, transformed the political landscape.

The Congress failed to adapt to this shift. As a result, it lost the support of the OBCs and Dalits to regional parties like the RJD, the JD(U) and the LJP, whose leaders—Lalu, Nitish and Chirag Paswan—became powerful caste representatives.

Today, Bihar’s population is over 13 crores, with around 63 per cent OBCs and 19.5 per cent Dalits, making them electorally decisive. Since 1990, the Congress has steadily declined. From 25 per cent votes and 71 seats in 1990, its vote share plummeted to 11 per cent by 2000. In the 2005 twin elections, it won just 13 and one seats, respectively. There was a minor recovery in 2010 (8.4 per cent, five seats) and 2015 (6.7 per cent, 23 seats). In 2020, the Congress had a 9.48 per cent vote share, but only 19 seats.

Pushyamitra notes: “Even in its worst days, the Congress held on to Muslim support in Seemanchal and Dalit votes in Shahabad-Rohtas. It’s now trying to expand among the EBCs too. Rahul’s outreach to students in Ambedkar and Karpoori hostels shows this shift.”

At present, neither the BJP nor the Congress has a strong Dalit or OBC face in Bihar. That makes regional parties not just allies, but necessities. 

Strong performance in Bihar could provide either party with national leverage—moral, numerical, and strategic, especially with the 2024-25 Lok Sabha alignments in play. Bihar’s political experiments have often shaped national directions.