Assembly Elections 2026: Testing TMC’s Grip In BJP's Bastion Northern Bengal

West Bengal is heading into a high-stakes Assembly election, with the Trinamool Congress (TMC), the BJP and the Left-Congress alliance preparing for a decisive contest. Across all 294 seats, the stakes are considerable: the ruling TMC, led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, is seeking to retain power, while the BJP aims to expand its base and mount a stronger challenge.

Polling for 152 seats in the first phase is underway today, marking a crucial opening that could influence the course of the election.

For Banerjee, the principal hurdle is anti-incumbency after nearly 15 years in office. Voters are closely scrutinising her government’s performance on employment, infrastructure, governance and public services. At the same time, the All India Trinamool Congress has sought to offset this by highlighting its welfare framework—particularly financial assistance schemes for women and broader social security measures—as central to its support base.

The BJP, for its part, has built its campaign around issues such as law and order, allegations of corruption, concerns over infiltration, economic growth and job creation. Women’s safety and welfare have also emerged as prominent themes, especially in the wake of incidents like the RG Kar violence. Simultaneously, the party is attempting to make inroads into the TMC’s welfare-driven constituency, particularly among women and rural voters, by emphasising central government schemes and their delivery.

The majority mark in the Assembly stands at 148. In 2021, the TMC secured 215 seats, while the BJP won 77; the Left and others managed one seat each.

The first phase of the two-phase election, being held today, covers 152 of the state’s 294 constituencies. This includes all 54 seats across eight districts of north Bengal, along with several seats in Murshidabad, Nadia, Birbhum and Hooghly. 

This opening phase will be critical in determining whether the BJP can continue to rely on north Bengal as its main gateway to power, or whether the TMC has succeeded in regaining lost ground. More than 3.60 crore voters, including nearly 1.75 crore women, are eligible to cast their votes on Thursday.

For the BJP, this phase is closely tied to its performance in north Bengal. Its broader challenge to the TMC depends significantly on retaining dominance in a region that fuelled its rise in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and helped it emerge as the principal challenger in the last Assembly polls.

In 2021, the BJP won 59 of these 152 seats, compared to the TMC’s 93. For the BJP, therefore, this phase offers its best chance to counter Mamata Banerjee’s continued strength in south Bengal. For the ruling party, containing a BJP surge is key to shaping the political narrative ahead of the next phase.

The contest spans diverse terrains—from the tea gardens of Jalpaiguri and Alipurduar to the hills of Darjeeling and Kalimpong, the Rajbanshi belt of Cooch Behar, the border districts of Malda and Uttar Dinajpur, and the minority-dominated areas of Murshidabad.

Despite these varied contexts, one issue has dominated across districts: the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls.

Over 91 lakh names were removed from the voter list during this exercise, reducing the electorate by nearly 12 per cent. Murshidabad alone saw more than 7.48 lakh deletions, followed by Nadia with over 4.85 lakh, Malda with 4.59 lakh, Uttar Dinajpur with 3.63 lakh and Cooch Behar with over 2.42 lakh.

The focus of the campaign has shifted sharply as a result. Instead of being centred solely on issues such as alleged irregularities in school recruitment, unemployment or welfare delivery, the discourse has increasingly revolved around terms like “citizenship”, “infiltrator”, “bogus voter” and “foreigner”.

The BJP has attempted to frame the SIR exercise as a referendum on infiltration and citizenship, while the TMC has characterised it as an effort to disenfranchise legitimate voters, particularly minorities, migrant workers and economically vulnerable groups.

Gradual Rise of the BJP

Until recently, the BJP had a limited presence in West Bengal. It won no seats in 2009 and secured roughly 4 per cent of the vote in the 2011 Assembly elections. Its ascent began in 2014, when it won two Lok Sabha seats and increased its vote share to 17 per cent. This was followed by steady gains—around 10 per cent in 2016 and a sharp surge in 2019, when it won 18 of 42 Lok Sabha seats with over 40 per cent vote share, establishing itself as the TMC’s principal challenger.

In 2021, the BJP won 77 Assembly seats, with most of its victories concentrated in north Bengal and select urban pockets. These included constituencies such as Mathabhanga, Sitalkuchi, Dinhata, Natabari, Alipurduars, Falakata, Madarihat and Dhupguri in the north, along with a smaller presence in parts of Kolkata and adjoining areas like Shyampukur, Maniktala, Kashipur-Belgachia, Howrah Uttar and Bally.

For the BJP, the stakes remain high as it seeks to translate its electoral gains into actual power and challenge the long-standing dominance of Mamata Banerjee’s party.

The Election Commission has deployed a record 2,450 companies of central forces, with more than 8,000 polling stations categorised as highly sensitive.

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee alleged that the Centre had deployed an unusually large number of central forces in the state for the Assembly elections, questioning the intent behind the move and accusing the BJP of using state machinery to its advantage.

At another rally in Haripal in Hooghly district, she asked PM Modi to deploy such armoured vehicles in Manipur instead. “There has been unrest in Manipur for the last three years," she said, asking Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah to hold a public meeting there. "Go and see the difference, in Bengal people of all faiths live together in peace," she added.