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It would perhaps be in order if the Maharashtra state assembly moved to the Mahalaxmi Race Course. The horse-trading witnessed last week has even surprised veteran manipulators like Sharad Pawar. Ever since the Democratic Front (DF) government lost its majority in the assembly last week, with 15 MLAs walking out of the ruling coalition, confusion has reigned supreme. Not surprisingly, the crisis has triggered off a numbers game with huge sums of money changing hands. Buying MLAs and keeping the herd together has become the name of the game and even political punters can't quite figure out which side—the ruling front or the Shiv Sena-BJP Opposition—will emerge victorious after the vote of confidence on June 13.

The grapevine, meanwhile, keeps ticking. Rumours of one more MLA having crossed over to the Sena-BJP, or a disgruntled Sena man joining Sharad Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party abound. Claims and counter claims have added to the confusion. As suitcase politics took over, there was wild speculation on who had been bought, sold and for how much. At the end of the week, analysts feel, it'll still be touch and go.

Such is the uncertainty that everyone's pushed the panic button. In a desperate effort to protect its flock, a panic-struck NCP flew a majority of its MLAs to Indore. The Congress MLAs, meanwhile, are cooling their heels in Bangalore under the watchful eyes of Karnataka chief minister S.M. Krishna. And the Sena has its people 'detained' at the Matoshree Club in Goregaon, suburban Mumbai. As one MLA put it, the game being played out is akin to "UP-style politics".

Trouble broke out for the ruling DF on June 3 when the Peasant and Workers Party (PWP) decided to withdraw support to the Congress-led coalition. The party has five MLAs. What evoked the party's ire was the government's decision to re-induct NCP MLA Sunil Tatkare into the ministry despite the PWP's clear stand against such a move. The party had got him dropped during the last assembly session, accusing him of engineering the defeat of a PWP candidate in the Raigad zilla parishad elections in favour of a Sena candidate. The PWP withdrew support from the government just a week after Tatkare's reinduction. Chief minister Vilasrao Deshmukh, in a desperate move at damage control, dropped Tatkare from his cabinet on June 5 but the PWP was not to be placated.

Taking advantage of this, the Shiv Sena-BJP combine managed to wean away 10 other dissident MLAs. By June 7, the figure was up by another five. Caught napping, the DF coalition was reduced to a minority and faced the worst political crisis in its two-and-a-half year tenure. Both the Congress and its main alliance partner, the NCP, are now making frantic efforts to stave off saffron poachers.

What makes the scenario precarious is that as far as numbers go, both the ruling front and the Opposition are in a neck-and-neck race. Indeed, at the end of the week the government was far less confident of reaching the halfway mark in the 288-member assembly. The chief minister admitted on June 6 that mid-term polls will be the best option. "It'll be better to have a fresh mandate than a fractured one," he said. But this doesn't mean that the boards have been put away yet.

Much depends now on whether the ruling coalition manages to woo back the seven MLAs from the Left parties it had slighted and whether rebel legislators will be prevented from voting in favour of the saffron alliance—under provisions of the Anti-Defection Act, 1985. So far, four MLAs from the NCP and one each from the Janata Dal (S) and Bharatiya Republican Party have withdrawn support to the government along with eight other independent legislators.

The Shiv Sena-BJP combine insists that the rebels cannot be disqualified under the law since they didn't defy the party whip on the floor of the house nor did they resign and defect to another party.Meanwhile, they continue to frantically woo more dissidents. "We have the support of at least 10 more MLAs from the ruling parties. Everyday, we plan to parade two rebels before the governor," says BJP leader Gopinath Munde.

The ruling coalition, on the other hand, cites the Supreme Court rulings in favour of disqualification. Says NCP chief Sharad Pawar: "The rebels have clearly defied the party line and will be penalised under the anti-defection law. Not only will they be prevented from voting, they won't be able to contest elections for the next six years."

A decision on the disqualification of the rebel MLAs is expected soon. Notes speaker Arun Gujarathi: "I have issued notices to three NCP MLAs who withdrew support to the government. I'll take a decision only after hearing them out. Two other parties have also asked me to issue notices to their breakaway MLAs. A decision on whether they can vote will definitely be taken before the day of the no-confidence motion." The saffron parties, meanwhile, claim that the speaker has no locus standi to arbitrate on the issue. In the event of a constitutional crisis, Governor P.C. Alexander is expected to play a crucial role.

Meanwhile, the ruling alliance is on tenterhooks about whether it will get the Left parties to vote in its favour. Both the CPI(M) and PWP have said that they will not vote for communal parties on ideological grounds. But they have yet to decide whether they will abstain or vote in favour of the Democratic Front.

The government has clearly been foolhardy by taking its minor allies for granted. Says PWP leader N.D. Patil, "It is not just the Tatkare case. The government has been covertly supporting saffron parties in the local elections in Alibaug, Panvel, Beed, Nasik, Ahmednagar and Osmanabad." The PWP is also opposed to the Democratic Front's "anti-poor policies". The CPI(M) had withdrawn support to the government even earlier, last December, protesting against the sharp rise in electricity tariff and irrigation levies.

Meanwhile, Congress sources say that the party high command is upset with the chief minister for his inability to control the crisis and sees it as a "mammoth intelligence failure". Party insiders say the arrival of AICC observer for Maharashtra Vayalar Ravi and senior Congress leader Shivraj Patil in Mumbai to help diffuse the crisis is a clear sign that they no longer have faith in Deshmukh's abilities. It is learnt that the AICC had warned Deshmukh about the impending rebellion but he failed to act.

In the ongoing crisis, it is the NCP that has come out the sorriest. The party's image has suffered a serious setback. Party leaders complain that Pawar has been ignoring the growing signs of discontent. Senior leaders have long been upset about being superseded by Bhujbal, whom they see as an outsider. Lately, the cadre have also been complaining about the arrogance of Bhujbal and Ajit Pawar, both seen as power centres in the NCP. With MLAs switching sides more than once this week, the picture remains unclear. For the DF, it will require all of Pawar's political skills and speedy remedial measures by Deshmukh to save the day. As for the Sena-BJP combine, the revolt within the ruling coalition was a surprise gift. It's likely to make the most of it.