Futurists predict that wars in the 21st century will be fought over water resources. B.G. Verghese of the Centre for Policy Research accepts that the situation is serious. "To the extent that there are conflicts, strains, tensions, the problem exists. It is going to emerge as an even more critical problem in many parts of the world as well as in India which is already water short."
The last winter Parliament session discussed the Brahmaputra diversion, but without any results. "The details of how serious the Chinese are is not clear, and we have several projects for water harnessing which would be affected if this happened," said one source. But Verghese believes the discussion has gone too far. "Some diversions have already happened, more will take place…but it will make no serious difference in the quantum of water coming down. All this is on a small scale."
There is no hard international law regulating river water use. One law is in the final drafting stages at the International Law Commission, a UN organ, but is yet to be ratified. And Bob Stensholt, water resources expert at Monash University in Australia, believes there is an increasing tendency for countries located at the upper limits of a river to take independent decisions. "This is happening in Australia, and with the Mekong in Asia," he said. But N.V.V. Char, commissioner for eastern rivers at the Ministry of Water Resources, is confident that China is unlikely to go ahead with any large project without a "Bilateral agreement".
But while India frets about China's plans, Brahmaputra waters are being wasted. Indian government reports admitted 'Water resources potential of the Brahmaputra are the highest while present utilisation is the lowest." Verghese says there has been a "rather studied neglect of hydel power. Where there should be 40 per cent of hydro-electric power, it has dipped to less then 20 per cent."
A Water War may still be some distance away, but international competition to harness this necessity of life has begun.
