Government sources gave three reasons for Natwar's departure from the ministry. One, with the winter session of Parliament due to commence on November 23, the UPA could not afford to return to the house with an issue on which the BJP and the Opposition would have a field day. Two, if he was allowed to continue after the revelations in the report were buttressed by the establishment of a connection between his son and Sehgal, the next logical target would have been Sonia and the Congress—something the party could not afford. Moreover, with his authority eroded, he would have no credibility left as foreign minister abroad till his name was cleared.
And three, there was anger both in the party and government at the blackmail that Natwar appeared to be resorting to. At a Confederation of Indian Industry seminar on November 6, he told journalists that if the next resolution on the Iran nuclear issue at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) meeting next month was more severe than the previous one, "my advice to the government would be to reverse its vote". Earlier, inaugurating the seminar, he had said: "...nothing will prevent us as a great country from raising our voice as we did when we were in the Opposition to what was done in Iraq." These remarks were read as playing to the Left gallery and sealed his fate.
Natwar's railing against many of his colleagues also did not help. In private conversations with the PM, Sonia and Left leaders, he accused party seniors of ganging up against him. Heading his hit-list were defence minister Pranab Mukherjee (he made a disparaging remark about the latter's short physical stature), petroleum minister Mani Shankar Aiyar, party general secretary Ambika Soni and party MP Jairam Ramesh.
As long as Natwar had Sonia's total backing, his detractors could do little. But he realised too late that some of them were in key positions: Mukherjee is a key strategist in both party and government, and Soni is the chairperson of the media department. The party line from day one was that it could only speak for the party and Natwar could defend himself.
Two others who emerged in the Natwar saga were FM P. Chidambaram and MoS for science and technology Kapil Sibal, who were consulted—along with law minister H.R. Bharadwaj—on the legal angle. Both Chidambaram and Sibal thought there was enough prima facie evidence to merit an inquiry. Government sources add that Chidambaram has asked the ED—which comes under him—to work diligently on the case.
In the labyrinths of the Congress, notorious for palace politics and intrigue, all this was grist to the mill. Despite his 20 years in the Congress—barring a short stint in the Congress (T), which established his credentials further as a Sonia loyalist—he made few friends. When the Volcker story broke, only four party leaders came publicly to his defence—former Chhattisgarh CM Ajit Jogi who has also had "son trouble", Union minister Sis Ram Ola and Chaudhury Birender Singh, both fellow Jats, and Andhra Pradesh CM Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy.
Typical of the Congress, there are as many stories as sources. Government sources stress that Sonia was keener than the PM to see the last of Natwar once an effort was made to drag her into the mire. The PM, according to this view, was not keen to take on the additional responsibility of the foreign minister's job. However, sections in the Congress say that Natwar had long been a thorn in the PM's side when it came to the articulation of foreign policy and the Volcker report's findings came in handy. A third view, probably closer to the truth and emanating from more neutral Congress sources, was that there was "a great deal of discussion on the issue" and eventually Sonia and Manmohan Singh arrived at a consensus.
However, the cold political fact is that the PM has emerged stronger in the government. With the departure of Natwar, who not only was prone to shoot his mouth off on foreign policy—retracting on every occasion—but used to reportedly complain about thePMO when he visited 10, Janpath, Manmohan Singh will be that much more comfortable in the PM's chair.
