Why NDA Needs More Support to Pass Delimitation Bill as Monsoon Session Draws Near

The BJP-led NDA government is reportedly considering introducing a fresh constitutional amendment Bill in the upcoming Monsoon Session of Parliament to implement women's reservation by 2029, along with a Delimitation Bill to expand the strength of the Lok Sabha from 543 to nearly 850 members.

However, even after recent political realignments, the ruling alliance is still short of the numbers required to pass a constitutional amendment and will need support from parties outside the NDA.

NDA Still Short of Two-Thirds Majority

The NDA currently has 293 MPs in the Lok Sabha. If the Speaker recognises the defection of 20 Trinamool Congress (TMC) MPs and six Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs, the alliance's strength would increase to 319.

Even then, it would remain 41 MPs short of the two-thirds majority of 360 required if all members are present and voting.

In the Rajya Sabha, the NDA currently has 152 members, while 161 votes are needed to secure the required two-thirds majority. Though after the resignations by TMC MP’s last month, three seats in the house stand vacant. Based on their numbers in the West Bengal Assembly, the ruling coalition should comfortably win these seats, taking their tally in the upper house to 155.

As a result, the government will either require support from Opposition parties or abstentions that lower the effective majority threshold.

The DMK, which has 22 MPs in the Lok Sabha, fresh from their exit from the INDIA bloc are the largest non-aligned faction in the lower house.

Though One of the biggest hurdles remains the issue of delimitation, particularly the allocation of Lok Sabha seats among states.

The Dravidian party has consistently demanded that the existing freeze on the allocation of seats among states be extended.

It has argued that states such as Tamil Nadu, which have successfully controlled population growth, should not lose political representation to states with faster population growth.

However, with the changes in the political dynamics in Tamil Nadu with the rise of the TVK and Vijay, the party might be more agreeable to NDA’s pitch. The party has remained non-committal towards any stance regarding the bill.

"It would be speculative to say anything until there is a proposal to look at," DMK MP Tiruchi Siva told The Indian Express.

Why the Earlier Attempt Failed

During the Budget Session earlier this year, the Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill, which sought to fast-track implementation of the Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam, 2023, could not be passed because the government lacked the required numbers for a constitutional amendment.

As a result, the accompanying Delimitation Bill was also not taken up.

The proposed amendment sought to implement women's reservation after delimitation based on the 2011 Census instead of waiting for the first Census after 2026, as required under the existing law.

It argued that the proposal for women’s reservation in the Parliament would be slowed down if the results of the 2026 census are awaited, as originally intended.

Constitutional Challenge

A major constitutional hurdle lies in Article 81 of the Constitution, which requires Lok Sabha seats to be allocated among states broadly in proportion to their population.

The allocation of seats has remained frozen since 1976 to avoid penalising states that succeeded in population control. The freeze was extended in 2001 by the Vajpayee government until the first Census conducted after 2026.

Unless Parliament amends Article 81, the next delimitation exercise would have to follow updated population figures once the ongoing Census is completed, potentially increasing representation for more populous states such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar while reducing the relative share of southern states.

The Centre could achieve broader political consensus by introducing a constitutional amendment extending the freeze on inter-state seat allocation for several more decades.

At the same time, the government may propose updating the basis for delimitation within individual states from the 2001 Census to the 2011 Census.

Such a move would redraw Assembly and parliamentary constituencies within each state using more recent population data without immediately altering the number of Lok Sabha seats allocated to each state.

An Indian Express report stated that the Government will introduce the amendment bill only when it has the numbers in the parliament to go through with it. Even as the monsoon session draws near the NDA, for now, hasn't achieved the numbers. Though not for a lack of trying.