BJP Intensifies Numbers Game Ahead Of Delimitation, Women's Quota Push in Parliament

The Parliament session is just about a month away and hectic parleys are underway to ensure the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance has enough numbers of 360 to pass the Delimitation Bill and along with it the implementation of the 'Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam' (Women's Reservation Act).

According to a senior party leader, “The government will take this matter forward in Parliament once the necessary numbers and conditions are favourable”. There are rumours of the monsoon Parliament session being advanced by a few days from 21 July 2026 to ensure the passing of the Delimitation Bill.

Parallelly, the government is confident about the progress of census-related activities, believing that this is laying the essential groundwork for subsequent constitutional reforms. The census data is required to allocate Lok Sabha seats in proportion to population and to redraw parliamentary and Assembly constituencies through the delimitation process.

Under the Constitution, constituencies are meant to be delimited after every census. However, the 42nd Constitutional Amendment of 1976 froze the allocation of Lok Sabha and State Assembly seats based on the 1971 Census, initially until the first census conducted after 2000. The 84th Constitutional Amendment, enacted in 2001, extended this freeze until the publication of the first census after 2026.

A senior BJP leader confirmed that delimitation and the 'Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam' are among the top priorities for both the party and the government. They noted that the country's parliamentary representation has long been based on the 1971 census figures, whereas the nation's demographic and social landscape has undergone significant changes over the past five decades. A source stated, “India is changing rapidly. In this context, it is essential to align democratic representation with the shifting demographics and the new socio-economic landscape.”  

Within the ruling party, the assessment is that the implementation of the Women's Reservation Act (Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam) and the delimitation process could trigger major shifts in Indian politics. Both developments are expected to bring about sweeping changes, not only in the composition of Lok Sabha and Assembly constituencies but also in the social makeup of political leadership. This shift is likely to create new avenues for political participation for women, Gen-Z and young leaders.

According to sources, discussions regarding the Women's Reservation Act and the Delimitation Bill had taken place with the top leadership of the DMK during the Budget Session. However, the DMK’s support could not be secured in the House at that time due to the elections that were ongoing in April. Efforts are underway to bring southern states on board by highlighting how the proportional formula for delimitation would benefit them.

Meanwhile, there is also an expectation of support from a new faction consisting of at least 20 MPs following the split within the TMC. Strategists are now exploring ways to secure the numbers required for a two-thirds majority. To this end, the opposition camp in Maharashtra is being sounded out, and there is speculation regarding the Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP). However, no BJP leader has commented on such possibilities.

Rumours of a few Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs in Maharashtra switching sides to join the Eknath Shinde faction have also intensified. Reports suggest that leaders from the Eknath Shinde-led faction of Shiv Sena, as well as some central NDA leaders, are in touch with Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs. Currently, Shiv Sena (UBT) has nine MPs. There is speculation that six of them might break away to form a separate group and initially seek recognition as a distinct bloc in the House. Subsequently, this group could merge with the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena.

This triggered a response from Shiv Sena (UBT) on Sunday where Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Raut said 4 Lok Sabha MPs (Arvind Sawant, Anil Desai, Sanjay Dina Patil, and Rajabha Vaze) were present in the meeting, another four were present online (Omraje Nimbalkar, Bhausahib Vaghechoure, Nagesh Ashtikar and Sanjay Deshmukh) and Uddhav Thackeray spoke to the ninth MP (Sanjay Bandu Jadhav) on phone.

This move is expected to will help the NDA reach the two-thirds majority mark required for a constitutional amendment. The NCP (SP) has eight MPs in the Lok Sabha. Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP) had contested the Lok Sabha elections together with the Congress as part of the Maha Vikas Aghadi.

The BJP needs at least 360 to pass the Delimitation Bill in Parliament. Even if DMK (22) and possible breakaway MPS from Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP) are considered, it comes to around 350. It is only 10 MPs short of passing the Bill.

If all the MPs of all the Opposition parties follow the party whip and attend the sessions, it may not be easy for BJP to pass the Bill, but even if a few MPs don’t follow the whip, the ruling party can pass the Bill and with it the Women’s Reservation Bill.