Modi’s Upcoming Visit To China For SCO Summit Stirs Global Interest

Western capitals will be following  events in Tianjin closely, looking for signs of a rapprochement between India and China and whether the Trump tariff assault could drive India into the anti-Western camp dominated by Russia and China. Many of Trump’s critics are accusing him of forcing New Delhi away from the US camp and undoing a quarter century of growing ties between the US and India.

But considering India’s long standing boundary dispute with China, and its close military cooperation with arch enemy Pakistan, highlighted during the recent Operation Sindoor, New Delhi is unlikely to jump into a Chinese embrace. During his first term in office Prime Minister Modi too had tried to break the gridlock with China by hosting President Xi and his wife in his home state. But while the surface bonhomie was in place, the PLA soldiers were already moving into Chumar on the Ladakh sector. Talks between the field commanders later led to disengagement here. However the pattern of crossing into India’s side of the LAC continued and finally led to the east Ladakh eye-ball to eye-ball confrontation between the two armies. Distrust of China runs deep in India and there will be no hurried flip towards China.

But the flux in the global order has ensured that the two Asian rivals engage at some level.  Closer economic cooperation is very much on the line. India like much of the world is dependent on China for components of its manufacturing sector including electric vehicles, solar panels as well as its thriving pharmaceutical sector.  According to analysts at Carnegie, `` In the near term, as Modi pursues his ambition to turn India into global manufacturing powerhouse, it’s likely that the Indian economy will become more, rather than less reliant on Chinese supply chains.’’  At the same time, China is also looking to expand its market reach to ensure that if US doors are closed there must be other options. India with its huge domestic market fits the bill.

 Since the stand-off between India and China ended last year, the two Asian giants appear to be cautiously moving towards a thaw in a relationship that was in deep freeze since the face-off in eastern Ladakh. 

Ahead of the Prime Minister’s visit, the two countries have announced resumption of direct flights that had been in the works for sometime. Flights will resume by next month. During the pandemic airlines like everything else stopped operations. But once   that was over, India did not resume  flights because of strained political ties. That phase is now over. Earlier in July India had already resumed issuing tourist visas to Chinese nationals.

Though this is being interpreted by many as India and China coming together on fears of the tariff war that US President Donald Trump has unleashed on the world, India’s decision to normalise ties is linked to last October’s agreement on disengagement of troops from the last remaining friction points of Depsang and Demchok and on patrolling along the Line of Actual Control. Without complete disengagement, it would have been difficult for India to go ahead with normalising ties with China, despite Trump and his dismantling of global trade.

 Since the disengagement the two Asian rivals cautiously begun  to normalise strained ties. In July, Subramanyam Jaishankar was in China for the SCO foreign ministers meeting that precedes the summit.  He also held  a bilateral meeting with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, where they discussed taking forward the India-China ties that had come to a near halt after 2020. The situation will be clearer after Modi and Xi hold bilateral talks in the sidelines of the SCO summit.

India and China have major differences and are rivals in Asia, but at the same time their world views often overlap. India, China and Russia also believe that the West has for far too long dominated the world. An alternative to the American-led world order has to be in place. Both are proud of their ancient civilisations, see themselves as champions of the Global South. India and China often work together at the UN on critical issues like Climate change and push for better terms for the developing world. But even here there is an element of rivalry with New Delhi and Beijing positioning themselves as leaders of the Global South.