Jharkhand In Flux: Hemant Soren's Alliance Dilemma

For the past week, the political corridors of Jharkhand have been abuzz with rumours of a major realignment underway in the state. These speculations intensified on 1 December, when a leading national daily reported that Chief Minister Hemant Soren might ditch the Congress and pave the way for the BJP’s lotus to bloom in Jharkhand.

In fact, these rumours first took shape in August, when Hemant Soren spent nearly one-and-a-half months in Delhi while his father, Shibu Soren, was undergoing treatment. Back then, too, it was said that Hemant had met several top BJP leaders and that significant political reshuffling in Jharkhand had been discussed.

The chatter around these meetings has resurfaced, raising the political temperature in the state once again. Speculation grew stronger on 28 November, when Hemant Soren and his wife, Gandey MLA Kalpana Soren, flew to Delhi in a chartered plane. As of the writing of this report, the couple has been in Delhi for five days.

However, leaders of the JMM and its alliance partners maintain that this unscheduled Delhi visit is purely personal, Kalpana Soren’s mother is reportedly undergoing medical treatment in the city, and the couple has gone to be with her. Some insiders also suggest that Hemant Soren travelled to Delhi to consult lawyers regarding ongoing ED cases.

Against this charged backdrop, multiple political scenarios are being drawn.

First: Will the RJD and the Congress be dropped from the Jharkhand government?

Second: Is the JMM exploring a third-front formula minus Congress–RJD–BJP, involving a possible combination of the LJP, JD(U), and AJSU, or even a plan to engineer defections within the Congress to form a new government?

Third: Could Jharkhand witness a repeat of the 2009–10 scenario, where the JMM joined hands with the BJP to form the government?

At present, the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) government holds 56 of 81 Assembly seats: JMM has 34 MLAs, Congress 16, RJD 4, and the Left 2. Arithmetic suggests that JMM needs at least seven additional MLAs to form the government on its own. Thus, fueling talk of possible defections within the Congress or the RJD.

Why are these speculations gaining ground?

The first basis for speculation stems from JMM’s resentment over not receiving even a single seat in the Bihar Assembly elections. Hemant Soren had personally met Lalu Prasad Yadav and Tejashwi Yadav to negotiate seat-sharing for the JMM. The party left the meeting confident that some seats would be allocated. But when not even one seat was given, JMM ministers Sudivya Kumar and Vinod Kumar Pandey expressed open anger, declaring that the Mahagathbandhan would be reviewed in Jharkhand. On the day the election results were announced, JMM’s national general secretary Supriyo Bhattacharya reiterated the demand for a review.

This was interpreted as a clear signal about the power-sharing imbalance in Jharkhand, where, apart from the JMM, four ministers belong to the Congress and one to the RJD.

When asked about this review, Jharkhand Congress president Keshav Mahato blamed the RJD and said that reviewing the alliance is the Chief Minister’s prerogative.

The second question: Is breaking the Congress a viable option?

Friction between the Congress and JMM is not new. Senior Congress leaders Bandhu Tirkey and Pradeep Balmuchu have publicly expressed fear of a split within their party. Several other leaders have also voiced frustration with the JMM.

The rumour of a split gained further traction when, following the NDA’s sweeping win in the Bihar Assembly, BJP national spokesperson Dr Alok Kumar tweeted on 17 November, “Now the next blast will be in Jharkhand; Hemant will now become vibrant.” The tweet was widely interpreted as a hint at possible defections within Congress.

In such a scenario, if a faction of Congress MLAs joins the JMM, a Congress-minus, BJP-minus government is not entirely unimaginable.

The third question: Is a JMM–BJP alliance in the making?

This theory largely focuses on Jharkhand’s precarious economic condition. Several media reports claim that the state’s treasury is approaching depletion. There is mounting pressure on Hemant Soren to continue the ‘Maiya Samman Yojana’, a welfare scheme considered pivotal to his political support base. But with the treasury drying up, continuing the scheme has become a challenge. Many government projects remain pending despite the laying of foundation stones.

In such conditions, an argument is being made that joining hands with the BJP might be a compulsion for the JMM to stabilise the state’s finances.

However, veteran journalist Anand Kumar cautions against paying too much heed to these rumours. He acknowledges that Hemant has indeed met BJP leaders and that sources confirm such interactions even during the current Delhi visit. But, he says, there is no discussion about forming a government with the BJP. According to him, the BJP actually wants Hemant to stay in power, but minus the Congress. That could be achieved either by engineering a split in the Congress or by breaking RJD’s four MLAs and combining them with independents.

Why would the BJP prefer this? Anand Kumar argues that Hemant can indirectly help the BJP, particularly in Assam and Bengal, by contesting on tribal-heavy seats, thereby cutting into Congress and TMC votes to the BJP’s benefit.

While he rules out a JMM–BJP government, he suggests that a Congress-minus arrangement is not impossible if circumstances push Hemant in that direction. But joining hands with the BJP directly, he says, would be “political suicide” for Hemant.

Why would aligning with the BJP be self-destructive for Hemant Soren?

Despite its brief coalition with the BJP in 2009, the political context today is entirely different.

In 2009, JMM and BJP had 18 seats each, and AJSU had 5, creating a forced arithmetic that compelled the three to form a government. The alliance was short-lived due to a lack of trust, collapsing within a year, and by 2013, the relationship had completely broken down.

In 2024, however, the mandate is decisively anti-BJP. Jharkhand’s electorate voted against the BJP and in favour of Hemant Soren. Thereby, strengthening the narrative of “political persecution” he has faced.

For Hemant to now join hands with the BJP would not only invite comparisons with 2009 but also be far more damaging, potentially eroding the JMM’s tribal base, undermining its movement-led legacy, and tarnishing the political identity of the Soren family.

Tribal writer Gladson Dungdung says that if JMM joins the BJP, the party risks losing not only its new foothold in the Chotanagpur region but also its traditional strongholds in Santhal Pargana and Kolhan. He argues that the BJP’s actions between 2014 and 2019, such as its land bank policies and attempts to amend the CNT-SPT Acts, have cemented its anti-tribal image, while the JMM emerged as a full-fledged tribal party under Hemant.

In his view, joining hands with the BJP now could shatter the hard-earned trust among Santhal, Munda, Oraon, Ho, and Muslim voters, which is JMM’s core social base. Losing this vote-bank, especially after Shibu Soren’s passing, could be irrevocable.

The electoral graph reflects this growth

2005: 17 seats, 14.3 per cent of votes. 2009: 18 seats, 15.2 per cent of votes. 2014: 19 seats, 20.4 per cent votes. 2019: 30 seats, 18.7per cent votes. 2024: 34 seats, 23.4 per cent votes

In 2024, the Mahagathbandhan collectively won 56 seats and 44 per cent of the vote, while the NDA was reduced to 24 seats and 38 per cent of the vote. This trajectory is what has made Hemant Soren a pan-Jharkhand tribal leader for the first time.

Hemant built upon the statehood legacy of Shibu Soren, turned the 2019 anti-BJP wave into a full-majority mandate, and deepened the JMM’s connection with ST-reserved constituencies through “jal, jungle, zameen” politics.

His arrest by the ED, subsequent jail time, and political comeback sharpened his image as a persecuted tribal leader, adding a sympathy wave that helped consolidate support.

Given this backdrop, any sudden shift towards the BJP could alienate the very Santhal–Munda–Oraon–Ho communities that see JMM as their party of identity. The Muslim vote, too, would shift entirely to the Congress/RJD.

In short, power may be gained, but JMM’s deepest social foundations may be permanently weakened.

JMM’s political signalling

Some Congress insiders believe the JMM is using these political signals, such as the Delhi visits and the rumours of realignment, to pressure the Congress ahead of two upcoming Rajya Sabha vacancies. The last time, too, they point out, Congress was denied a Rajya Sabha seat despite earlier assurances, with both seats going to the JMM.

Gladson Dungdung adds that the Congress has recently become aggressive on tribal issues, such as PESA and the Sarna religion code, and the JMM does not want the Congress to dominate them. By keeping the speculation alive, the JMM seeks to keep Congress “on a tight leash.”

The final question: Would Hemant really bend now?

This is the core contradiction that many point out: The same Hemant Soren who refused to bow before the BJP, even when the Election Commission’s alleged letter threatened his disqualification, the same leader who chose to go to jail in the alleged land scam case rather than compromise with the ED or CBI; The same politician who led the alliance to historic victories in both Lok Sabha and Assembly elections—would he now suddenly capitulate?

Politics has no permanent friends or enemies, but the political cost of joining hands with the BJP today is far greater than the potential gains. For Hemant Soren, now a national tribal face, the move would be fundamentally at odds with his own hard-earned political identity.