Jammu And Kashmir Political Crisis: Can Dissident National Conference MLAs Bring Down Omar Abdullah Government?

A rebellion inside Jammu and Kashmir's ruling National Conference (NC) has put Chief Minister Omar Abdullah under pressure just over a year into his government. Reports say around 20 NC legislators have demanded a complete overhaul of the Council of Ministers and the removal of the Chief Minister's adviser, and have reportedly threatened to withdraw support if their demands are not met within 14 days.

The party leadership has described the legislators' meetings as informal. But the arithmetic of the 90-member Assembly, the legal limits of the anti-defection law and the NC's own unkept promises make the crisis more serious than a routine post-reshuffle grumble.

What Is The Rebellion About?

The immediate trigger was the October 27 cabinet expansion. The rebels have since met at least three times, first at the Srinagar residence of Lolab MLA Qaysar Jamshaid Lone and later at the home of Gulmarg MLA Farooq Shah. They want every minister replaced and the adviser removed.

One account in the Organiser, a publication close to the BJP's ideological family and therefore worth reading with caution, says some dissidents want all nine ministers, including Omar Abdullah, to resign and Farooq Abdullah to take over as chief minister with a ministry of first-time ministers. Farooq and Omar Abdullah have said Ali Mohammad Sagar will continue to hold his post. The BJP's Tarun Chugh has said NC legislators are questioning Omar's competence.

How Do Unfulfilled Promises Feed The Dispute?

The rebels are also pressing the NC to honour its ideological commitments and election manifesto, including restoration of Article 370. That has been given extra force by Srinagar MP Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi, who announced his resignation from both the party and his Lok Sabha seat on November 3, accusing the NC of failing to fulfil its poll promises or even take steps towards them, particularly on Article 370, the release of certain prisoners and the protection of people's rights.

He has rejected suggestions he is part of any horse-trading. The statehood question, which hangs on the Centre rather than the NC, adds to the sense among legislators that the government has little to show for its term.

What Does The Assembly Arithmetic Look Like?

The Assembly has 90 elected seats, putting the simple majority mark at 46. The NC holds 41 seats, the BJP 29. The government also draws support from six Congress MLAs, six independents and one CPI(M) MLA, bringing it to roughly 54. Congress stayed out of the October 27 expansion.

If 20 NC legislators withdrew support while 13 non-NC backers stayed, the government would have the support of about 34 MLA's, far short of 46, leaving a hung House. The BJP is still well short on its own; even adding 20 dissidents to its 29 would only just clear the mark, but it is an unlikely alliance anyway given the rebels' own Article 370 demands.

What Does The Tenth Schedule Say?

Under the anti-defection law, a legislator is disqualified for voluntarily giving up party membership or for voting against a party whip in the House. The old protection for a one-third split was removed in 2003; today, only a merger with another party, backed by at least two-thirds of the legislature party, is protected. For 41 NC MLAs that means 28, so around a 20-member group is short.

A group that simply tells the Governor or Lieutenant Governor it has withdrawn support, while staying in the party, is on safer ground until a vote or whip is defied, but a floor-test whip would test them. Mass resignation from the Assembly avoids disqualification but triggers by-elections and reduces the House's effective strength, which also lowers the majority threshold. The Speaker, elected on the government's strength, decides disqualification petitions in the first instance.

What Could Happen Next?

Farooq Abdullah has addressed a public meeting flanked by 15 of the allegedly dissident MLA’s and has denied that any split is taking place.

"The baseless reports being spread that the National Conference is divided are completely false. This organisation is united, and those who think they can break this organisation should understand that it has never been broken and will never be broken,” he told reporters.

Shedding some light on what happened in the meeting, Abdullah also said that everyone’s voices had been heard and emphasized that the party’s struggle against Article 370 and as well as the fight for the restoration of statehood will continue.

“Everyone was heard, and some steps will be taken soon, while others will be taken gradually. We will strengthen the party and the government so that people's difficulties can be addressed. Alongside this, our fight for the restoration of Statehood, as well as our fight for Articles 370 and 35A, will continue, and it will be taken to its final conclusion," the former CM said.

This response suggests that the storm in the National Conference may have subsided for now with the top leadership likely agreeing to some of the dissident MLA’s demands. But, the resignation of Aga Ruhullah means that the party will likely suffer long term consequences of the troubles that have afflicted them these past few weeks.