Assembly Elections 2026: Saffron Push Tests Red Bastions, Turns Thiruvananthapuram Into Battleground of Loyalties

All eyes are on Thiruvanathapuram. The capital city was strangely calm on the last two days of campaigning and almost indifferent, with a muted election fever. But look closer, and the story reveals itself. In pockets, you can see loyalities shifting. It is a churn. A slow, deliberate tension, the kind that accompanies a forceful transition.

This is where the established stronghold of the reds, is being challenged by the emerging saffron. BJP had ended Left Democratic Front’s (LDF) hold over the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation in December 2025 and got its first ever mayor in the capital.

And in between, blue of the Congress holds ground in a layered political canvas.

The political geographies have long made up the defining identity of Kerala, with the established “party villages” of the CPI(M) in the northern part of the state having always remained a symbol of their ideology’s allegiance. A new trend seems to be emerging in the state capital now in the form of the “Sangh gramam,” which stands for Sangh village in the state capital.

Of the total of 14 constituencies in Thiruvananthapuram district, only BJP has pinned its hope in of them. Anything more than one seat will be a breakthrough.

Thiruvananthapuram Central

In Thiruvananthapuram Central, the contest is marked by sharp undercurrents and political crossovers. The LDF has fielded a non-favourite actor Karamana Sudheer, while the UDF’s candidate, C.P. John, is a former CPI(M) leader who was expelled alongside M.V. Raghavan and formed Communist Marxist Party (CMP). “John’s legacy has turned him into a rival of both Pinarayi Vijayan and old CPM cadre. But, people here want him to win,” said Anand, who works at a popular breakfast place near the main railway station.

BJP’s candidate Karamana Jayan enters the fray with allegations of two murders of two CPM workers. “But, CPM here want to defeat John.”

The Congress vote share remains a decisive factor, particularly if John is able to secure it effectively. The outcome here hinges on the direction of the Muslim vote: if it consolidates behind Sudheer, it would help the BJP win.

Adding to the equation is the significant Nair vote base, estimated at around 60 per cent, which could ultimately tilt the balance in this tightly poised contest.

Nemom

In Nemom, the contest is taking has taken a tri-cornered shape, with the BJP’s state president Rajeev Chandrasekhar, the UDF’s K.S. Sabarinadhan, and the LDF’s V. Sivankutty all in the fray. This is the only constituency from where BJP has won in Kerala. O Rajagopal had won from here in 2016. The last time Congress won from here was in 2006.

“The fight here is increasingly becoming between difficult to pin. Young voters do not want the incumbent V Sivankutty. Some of them are turning towards the technocrat appeal of Rajeev Chandrasekhar,” said Muralikrishna N, who is a Bangalore-based businessman but is a voter here. He points out that there is rivalry between the Mayor of Thiruvananthapuram VV Rajesh and Chandrasekhar because Rajesh is an old time worker of BJP and RSS and not an implant like Chandrasekhar. “There is considerable anger because of that. For Rajesh to grow Chandrasekhar must lose. Chandrasekhar favoured R. Sreelekha as the mayor, but central leadership wanted Rajesh,” he added.

A key dynamic underpinning the race is the consolidation of Muslim votes, with a significant portion, estimated at around 28,000, expected to favour the CPM, particularly in pockets like Thiruvallom and Pachallur. Muslim votes here split are the Jamaat-e-Islami supporters and SDPI followers (Social Democratic Party of India), with the former supporting the Congress and the latter for CPI(M).

In Pachalloor alone, roughly 4,000 Muslim votes could tilt towards the SDPI, adding another layer of fragmentation.

Sabarinadhan, however, is steadily gaining ground, though his campaign appears largely concentrated among minority communities. What may prove crucial is his growing appeal beyond that base, particularly among neutral Gen Z voters, where there are signs of a gradual but notable shift in his favour, potentially reshaping the final outcome.

“We all believe that Sabarinadhan was made the sacrificial goat. We have been asking the SDPI to not support CPI(M) but they don’t seem to understand. This split in votes may eventually favour BJP,” said Nawaz, who runs a pop and mom store in the constituency.

Vattiyoorkavu

The contest at Vattiyoorkavu seems to be moving away from the usual three-way battle into a much more dynamic and uncertain equation, with K. Muraleedharan of the UDF taking on the sitting MLA V.K. Prashanth of the LDF, with the BJP candidate R. Sreelekha’s campaign struggling to consolidate the momentum from the local body election win.

“She still believes she is an IPS officer. She still wants the respect accorded to the position, which won’t happen now. She can’t throw tantrums when is representing people,” said Bhavageetham Anil, who runs an art gallery and votes in the constituency.

Sreelekha is also viewed as somewhat detached from the BJP’s traditional base, raising questions about vote transferability. As a result, BJP votes are expected to fragment, though where they will ultimately shift remains uncertain; upper-caste Hindu voters may lean towards the Congress.

Muraleedharan, who had represented the constituency between 2016 and 2021, has the goodwill of both the Nair community and minorities, who make up about an estimated 50,000. “He worked hard when he was the MLA here. We could go to him for anything,” said Amminiamma who run a cool bar in the locality. 

Prashanth’s latest controversy about having office space in the building of the corporation in Thiruvananthapuram (Sasthamangalam) has become a sticking point and further strengthened rumours about the tacit understanding between CPM and BJP. But then, backed by Ezhavas, Prashanth ensures that LDF will be a strong competitor.

Kazhakootam

In Kazhakootam, the battle is sharpening into a direct and high-stakes contest between the BJP and the LDF. V. Muraleedharan of BJP, who used to be MoS in the Ministry of External Affairs, will be opposing LDF’s Kadakampally Surendran, who served the role of Devaswom Minister in the first LDF ministry from 2016 to 2021.

“There is anger against Surendran here because of the Sabarimala case. It seems that he was given the seat despite objections because of a tacit understanding between CPIM and BJP,” claims Jamir, who runs a textile shop in the locality.

This is also where there are more than 10 Sanghagramams where BJP has won entire wards – Kariavattom, Chellamangalam, Chempazhanthy, Chenkottukonan, Ayiroopara, Sreekaryam. “After Shobha Surendran stood for elections here in 2021, these villages took shape. She has been actively working for this. She had polarised the election in 2021,” said Rajkumar Chennamangalam a medical practitioner and a resident. 

The UDF candidate, Sarathchandran Prasad, appears to be largely out of the reckoning, with the contest increasingly polarised. A significant factor, however, is the consolidation of minority voters, estimated at around 60,000, who are largely seen as unlikely to back the BJP.

Nedumangad

In Nedumangad, the contest is shaping into a layered and but mostly predictable battle. The BJP has fielded firebrand Yuvaraj Gokul, who appears to be gaining traction among Gen Z voters, lending the party a fresh and youthful edge.

The Congress candidate is Meenankal Kumar, former CPI state council member who joined Congress in October 2025, making the contest as much about personal equations as party lines.

On the other side, the incumber MLA CPI’s G.R. Anil faces not just external opposition but murmurs of internal friction, with sections of the CPM seemingly unenthusiastic in their support. SDPI has decided to field Batherutheen A (Shiyad) here against CPI, which is in tacit understanding with CPIM. This will split the fragment the vote, particularly among Muslim voters, meanwhile the Christian voters, meanwhile, are expected to lean pragmatically towards the candidate most likely to win.

Much hinges on the Congress vote bank and where it ultimately consolidates.

Local dynamics, such as in Pachira ward, and dissatisfaction with Congress MP Adoor Prakash not doing enough, complicates the picture. “We have been demanding a connection to the highway for years. But, they are not opening the road to our locality making vehicles bypass this area completely. We are suffering losses. We have met leaders of all parties, but only the BJP has promised the opening of the Pallipuram-Pothecode road,” said the owner of Ladhans restaurant. He declined to be named.

Kattakkada

In Kattakkada, the electoral contest is shaped as much by community dynamics as by political allegiances. The CPI(M)’s sitting MLA, IB Satheesh, represents the Nair community, while the BJP has fielded another prominent Nair figure, PK Krishnadas, a veteran leader associated with the party since the days of LK Advani. The UDF, meanwhile, has nominated MR Baiju, a leader from the Nadar community, positioning him to consolidate Nadar support.

Krishnadas, scenting a chance, Krishnadas has stirred controversy with remarks suggesting that a victory for either the LDF or UDF would place governance under the influence of organisations such as the SDPI and Jamaat-e-Islami. He further alleged that such a scenario could encourage so-called “love jihad” and expose Hindu women to targeted conversion for “anti-national” purposes. His campaign material also has ‘Hindu Ekata Sammelanam’

At the heart of the Kattakkada battle lies the delicate balance between the Nair and Nadar communities. The Hindu vote is divided along these lines, with Nair support likely to be split between the LDF and the BJP, while the Nadar vote is expected to coalesce behind Baiju. Minority communities, on the other hand, appear largely consolidated in favour of the UDF. The SDPI vote remains a crucial variable, with its supporters yet to decide between backing the LDF or the Congress, adding an element of uncertainty

For the BJP, this moment carries a sense of urgency. There is a growing belief within its ranks that the window of opportunity is now, that the ground, however resistant, is more receptive than it has ever been.

Thiruvananthapuram, then, is the measuring stick for change, for resistance, and ultimately, for political realignment.