Assembly Elections 2026: Can The Muslim League Again Play Kingmaker in Kerala?

In Kerala’s tightly contested bipolar politics, the Indian Union Muslim League continues to function as the United Democratic Front’s (UDF) kingmaker because of its consistent electoral strength, especially in the Malabar region, and its deeply rooted organisational network. 

Unlike smaller allies, IUML delivers a reliable bloc of seats and votes, often tipping the balance in close contests against the Left Democratic Front. Its long-standing ideological alignment with the UDF, combined with committed cadre and influence through educational and community institutions, gives it both stability and bargaining power within the coalition. This makes IUML not just another ally, but a decisive force in determining whether the UDF can form the government.

The P. K. Kunhalikutty Factor 

P. K. Kunhalikutty, a senior leader of the IUML, is not only significant because of his electoral wins, he is also the backbone of the party in Kerala who enjoys a good rapport with Congress leaders such as former chief minister Oommen Chandy. Kunhalikutty has also served as cabinet minister in K. Karunakaran and Chandy governments. He  has been winning the Malappuram constituency since 1982 except one defeat. 

Although his trajectory has seen a couple of major controversies, he is perceived as one of the rare non-radical Muslim leaders who is known for his soft-spoken personality. As the party's chief strategist, he has played a decisive role in seat-sharing negotiations, coalition management, and maintaining IUML’s steady electoral base in Malabar. His ability to balance community representation with pragmatic politics has helped the IUML retain both relevance and bargaining power, making him one of the most influential figures in Kerala’s coalition politics.

The Numbers Game 

With 140 seats in the Kerala assembly, the majority mark is 71. According to a recent Manorama News, C-Voter Survey - in an extremely tight contest, the UDF is likely to secure 60 to 81 seats. If it does, it will be only because of IUML’s 20 seats on an average. The answer lies in the IUML’s consistently good strike rate. The IUML is winning an average of 18-20 seats in every assembly election out of the average 25 seats it contests. 20 seats out of 25 is a strike rate of 80 % whereas the Congress’s strike rate is less than 50%. 

In the 2016 Kerala Assembly elections, the Congress won just 22 out of the 87 it contested, the IUML, won18 out of the 24 seats it fought. Together, it formed a force of 40 seats, far away from the majority mark of 71, yet the IUML’s good strike rate always strengthened the UDF, except for a massive defeat in 2006. 

In the last assembly election in 2021- Congress won 22 seats and IUML won 15. Although this time, the LDF may lose its chance to retain power for a third consecutive term, with a predicted tally of around 57 to 69 seats, the battle ground is very tough for the Congress and without IUML it can’t achieve the majority mark. 

The IUML has been successful in retaining its stronghold constituencies especially in the Muslim-majority Malappuram district which itself has 16 assembly constituencies. 

Hindutva Mobilisation In Malappuram 

Although the IUML consolidates all kinds of power in the Muslim-populated Malappuram district, the attempts of Hindutva politics through cultural shifts have begun. The Maha Magha Mahotsavam at Tirunavaya, a Hindu religious gathering that concluded in early February 2026, was projected as ‘Kerala's Kumbh Mela’. It was organised by Hindu religious groups, including Akhadas.

The event tried to manifest ‘Hindu power’ through mobilisation of Hindus for the ‘Kumbh’, it drew attention because of its scale and location on the banks of the Bharathapuzha river. It was a deliberate attempt to assert Hindu visibility and consolidation in a district long considered an IUML stronghold, while pushing a broader Hindutva narrative. Despite these attempts, will the IUML retain its high strike rate in Kerala to emerge kingmaker once again? We will know the answer on May 4.