Kerala Sees Political Churn: LDF Routed, Congress Surges, BJP Advances

Kerala has rarely witnessed an election of this magnitude. For decades, the state followed a clear pattern of alternating power, routinely voting out incumbent governments—until 2021, when the Left Democratic Front (LDF) broke that trend by securing a second consecutive term.

This time, however, the scale of the reversal is striking. The LDF has suffered an unprecedented rout, with even Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan struggling to retain his constituency. 13 of the 20 ministers have been defeated, and some allied parties have failed to open their accounts altogether.

For the Congress, it has the highest number of seats in the history of Kerala, with the party alone winning 63 seats.

In a significant shift, the BJP has, for the first time in Kerala’s history, managed to win three seats—marking a notable breakthrough in a state where it has traditionally had limited electoral success.

In the 140 assembly, the Congress-led UDF has won or has a clear lead in 102 seats, with the Congress alone bagging 63 seats, followed by the Indian Union Muslim League with 22 seats. The CPIM got just 25 seats.

The scale of the UDF surge becomes even clearer at the district level. The front has registered a complete sweep in six of Kerala’s 14 districts, leaving the LDF without a single seat in those regions.

Such a clean sweep in multiple districts underscores the depth of the anti-incumbency wave and the extent to which the LDF’s support base has eroded across large parts of the state, turning what is usually a closely fought bipolar contest into a one-sided verdict.

For the BJP, which has long struggled to gain a foothold in Kerala, this election has provided a significant boost. The party has won three constituencies—all in South Kerala—indicating a modest but meaningful expansion of its base.

Equally significant is its performance in several other seats, where it has finished second in five constituencies, signalling a deeper and more sustained penetration into the state’s political landscape. This suggests that while the BJP is still far from being a dominant player, it is gradually emerging as a more competitive force beyond its traditional pockets.

In Nemom, a key battleground for the party, state president and former Union Minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar secured victory by a margin of over 2,000 votes. This performance marks an important breakthrough for the BJP in a state where electoral success has historically been limited, and suggests that the party may be beginning to consolidate pockets of support, particularly in the southern region. In Kazhakkoottam, another key gain for the BJP came with former Union Minister V. Muraleedharan securing a narrow victory by 428 votes. This close contest further underlines the party’s emerging presence in select pockets of South Kerala. Chattanur, in Kollam district is another constituency where the BJP has secured win

A strong anti-incumbency wave, combined with persistent allegations of authoritarian functioning against Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, appears to have decisively gone against the CPI (M).

With this defeat in Kerala, the Indian Left finds itself in an unprecedented position—after decades, it no longer holds power in any state across India. The outcome not only marks a significant political shift in Kerala but also underscores the continuing decline of Left parties in the national landscape.

In the run-up to the poll, the CPIM was already grappling with internal dissent, as a section of its leaders openly raised concerns over alleged corruption and nepotism within the party. The leadership responded by expelling prominent figures such as T. K. Govindan and Kunhikrishnan from its stronghold in Kannur district.

Defying the party, both leaders entered the fray as rebels from the CPIM bastions of Payyannur and Taliparamba—constituencies that have historically remained impregnable for the CPIM, rarely electing candidates outside the party fold.

However, in a dramatic turn, the CPIM suffered a major setback. Its official candidates were defeated by these rebels, who were backed by the Congress, and that too by convincing margins. The outcome not only underscores the depth of internal fissures within the party but also signals a significant erosion of its traditional support base in its own heartland.

For the outgoing Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan—who has for years been the central figure guiding both the CPIM and the government—this verdict represents a significant personal setback.

His leadership style, often criticised by opponents and sections within the party as overly centralised or authoritarian, is now likely to come under intense internal scrutiny. The scale of the defeat may trigger a deeper introspection within the party about decision-making, leadership structure, and its connect with the grassroots.

It also remains uncertain whether he will assume the role of Leader of the Opposition. If he chooses not to, the party could be headed toward a generational shift, with new leadership emerging to redefine its strategy and political direction in a rapidly changing electoral landscape.

For the Congress, the victory brings with it a tricky question—who will be the next Chief Minister. With multiple senior leaders in contention, the choice is unlikely to be straightforward.

V. D. Satheesan, the current Leader of the Opposition who spearheaded the campaign, has made it clear that the decision will rest with the party high command. At the same time, seasoned leaders like Ramesh Chennithala and AICC general secretary K. C. Venugopal are also in the fray for the top post.

The final decision will reflect not just electoral performance, but also internal party equations, caste and regional balance, and the leadership’s long-term strategy in Kerala.