The BJP has won just one assembly seat in Kerala’s history
The party is focusing on the Thiruvananthapuram district, where at least three constituencies are witnessing closely fought three-cornered contests.
Manjeswaram and Palakkad are the other constituencies where the BJP hopes to pull off an upset.
With just two days to go for assembly polls, the stakes in Kerala have risen sharply, and the electoral picture is growing increasingly complex and unpredictable. The three fronts—the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA)—are pulling out all stops in the final stretch of campaigning, leaving little to chance.
For the Left and the Congress, this election is essentially a battle for survival and relevance. For the NDA, however, it is a fight for political legitimacy and pride. Failure to secure even a couple of seats would further underscore the BJP’s long-standing struggle to breach what is often described as the country’s “secular citadel.”
The BJP, for its part, began preparations early, identifying select constituencies as priority “A-class” seats and deploying a high-intensity, almost blitzkrieg-style campaign. From the Karnataka-bordering Manjeswaram to the southern stronghold of Nemom, the party is projecting confidence and investing significant resources.
Yet, as the campaign comes to a close, the key question remains: can the BJP finally break the jinx in a state where both the Left and the UDF have consistently resisted ceding space to a third force?
Despite an early organisational presence of the RSS and a relatively strong cadre base, the BJP has struggled to make significant electoral inroads in Kerala. So far, it has won only one Assembly seat and one Lok Sabha seat. The Assembly victory, secured in 2016, was lost to the CPI(M) in 2021. Its maiden Lok Sabha win came only in 2024, when actor-turned-politician Suresh Gopi won from Thrissur.
The 2024 parliamentary results, however, offered the party some encouragement. The BJP emerged ahead in 11 Assembly segments, signalling pockets of growing support. Yet, this momentum proved difficult to sustain. In the Lok Sabha election, the NDA’s vote share rose to 19.23 per cent (with the BJP accounting for around 16 per cent), up from roughly 15 per cent in 2019. But in the local body elections held last December, the BJP’s vote share dipped to 14.76 per cent.
This fluctuation underscores a familiar pattern in Kerala’s electoral behaviour—while the BJP manages to expand its footprint in national elections, it continues to face limitations in state and local contests.
However, some analysts believe this pattern may be shifting. “This is a crucial election for the BJP, and it has effectively made the contest tripolar,” says Dr. G. Gopakumar, political scientist and former Vice-Chancellor of the Central University of Kerala. According to him, at least 30 constituencies could witness a serious three-cornered contest, with the BJP’s more assertive presence potentially cutting into the vote share of both the Left and the UDF.
Gopakumar identifies Manjeswaram, Palakkad and Nemom in Thiruvananthapuram district as among the BJP’s most promising constituencies. Manjeswaram, bordering Karnataka, has been a traditional stronghold for the party, dating back to the Jan Sangh era, and the BJP has come close to victory there on multiple occasions.
“The BJP has long been strong in this constituency. In the past, the CPI(M), in a bid to prevent a BJP candidate from entering the Assembly, has tacitly backed the UDF’s Muslim League candidate at the last minute,” says senior journalist P. T. Nasar.
This time, however, K. Surendran, former state president of the BJP, is projecting confidence. He lost the seat in the previous election by a narrow margin of just 855 votes, and this marks his fifth attempt from the constituency. “People are more alert this time to the political manoeuvring between the Left and the UDF,” Surendran says, expressing optimism about his prospects.
The constituency’s demographic profile adds another layer of complexity, with Muslims accounting for nearly half of the population, making electoral outcomes highly sensitive to shifts in community voting patterns.
In Palakkad, a district bordering Tamil Nadu, the BJP has steadily built its presence, ruling the municipality for a third consecutive term and emerging as the runner-up to the Congress in the last three Assembly elections. The constituency has remained with the Congress since 2011, but since 2016, the BJP has positioned itself as a serious challenger.
This time, the BJP has fielded its firebrand leader Sobha Surendran, known for her ability to expand the party’s vote share across constituencies she has contested. The Congress, meanwhile, has nominated actor-turned-politician Ramesh Pisharody, following the expulsion of former MLA Rahul Mankootathil over allegations of sexual misconduct.
“Palakkad will continue its political tradition,” Pisharody says, dismissing the possibility of any major electoral upset. Sobha Surendran, however, claims she is receiving a strong response on the ground, arguing that voters are increasingly disillusioned with the entrenched bipolar contest that, she says, has held back Kerala’s development.
The constituency has seen closely fought contests in recent years. In 2021, E. Sreedharan—widely known as India’s ‘Metro Man’—posed a serious challenge to Congress leader Shafi Parambil, losing by a narrow margin of 3,859 votes. Shafi later resigned after being elected to the Lok Sabha from Vadakara in 2024.
In the subsequent by-election, Youth Congress leader Rahul Mankootathil won the seat with a decisive margin of 18,840 votes. However, he was later expelled from the party following a series of sexual misconduct allegations, adding a layer of political uncertainty to the constituency ahead of the current contest.
Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala’s capital, has emerged as a key battleground for the BJP. In the 2025 corporation elections, the party unseated the CPI(M) to take control of the civic body, signalling its growing urban foothold. The BJP had earlier opened its Assembly account in the state from the Nemom constituency in 2016, underscoring the city’s importance in its Kerala strategy.
This time, the party is focusing on a cluster of constituencies in and around the capital. In Nemom, state president and former Union minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar is in the fray. In Kazhakootam, the BJP has fielded former Union minister V. Muraleedharan, while in Vattiyoorkavu, former DGP R. Sreelekha is contesting.
Together, these candidatures reflect a calibrated push by the BJP to consolidate its urban base and translate organisational gains into electoral breakthroughs in the state.
“Thiruvananthapuram is witnessing three-cornered contests in several constituencies,” says Dr. Gopakumar. “After winning the corporation, securing victory in one or two Assembly seats is crucial for the BJP to sustain its momentum,” he adds. V. Sivankutty, the state’s Education Minister, sitting MLA who is contesting against Rajeev Chandrasekhar in Nemom, dismisses the BJP’s prospects, asserting that the party will once again fail to open its account.
In several constituencies, both the Left and the Congress have accused each other of entering into clandestine arrangements with the BJP to secure electoral advantage—an allegation that has dominated much of the campaign narrative.
The die is cast. Kerala’s politics has long been defined by a bipolar contest between the Left and the UDF. The key question now is whether the BJP can disrupt this equilibrium. For that, the party needs to convert its growing vote share into at least a few Assembly victories.
Senior national leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, have campaigned for party candidates in Thiruvananthapuram.
In a state where the social groups viewed as ‘internal enemies’ by RSS ideologue M. S. Golwalkar—Muslims, Christians and Communists—are integral to the political fabric, any electoral breakthrough by the BJP would carry significance beyond numbers. It would be framed not merely as a political gain, but as an ideological advance. Aware of these stakes, the Left and other secular forces appear determined to prevent such an outcome.
