Assam Elections: Why BJP Gains Ground as Congress Leaders Jump Ship

By the time Nagaon MP Pradyut Bordoloi submitted his resignation on March 17, the only thing surprising about it was that anyone was still surprised.

Bordoloi cited “prolonged neglect by leadership.” It was the kind of language that sounds measured in a press statement but lands like an indictment in a party already haemorrhaging credibility. “Today, I have abandoned one of the most important principles of my life, and I am not happy with it. However, I made this decision because I was being insulted on many issues by those within the party,” he said.

Within hours, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, himself a former Congressman who crossed over in 2015 and has since perfected the art of the political jab, was on record predicting that five or six sitting MLAs would follow suit before the 2026 assembly elections.

In Assam’s political circles, Bordoloi’s exit was not a shock. It was the latest chapter in what senior Assam-based journalist Durba Ghosh describes plainly as “clearly opportunistic politics.”

A Pattern in the Exits

Congress has always had a complicated relationship with loyalty. Defections, especially in the run-up to elections, are as much a part of Indian political culture as the rallies themselves. But what is unfolding in Assam is different in character, and potentially more damaging.

In the period spanning 2024 to early 2026, exits include figures like Bhupen Kumar Borah, Nabajyoti Talukdar, Kushal Kumar Sarmah, Kishore Bhattacharya and Manash Borah, among others. Several of those leaving are not peripheral voices or perennial complainers. They represent the organisational tissue and include district and booth-level connectors, and the people who translate party rhetoric into votes on the ground.

Ghosh traces the origins of the current wave directly to the moment the BJP absorbed its most consequential recruit. “The trend began when Himanta Biswa Sarma exited the Congress, triggering a chain reaction of leaders following suit as the party weakened in the state. With the Congress seen as ineffective and out of power, many leaders saw no political future there,” she says, adding that several defectors appear driven by the promise of power and positions, aligning with the BJP’s broader push for a “Congress-free” political landscape.

‘No due despite loyalty’

The Assam Congress unit has long been marked by factionalism, but the current phase has brought that tension to a head. Multiple leaders have publicly cited what Bhupen Kumar Borah described plainly as “no due despite loyalty.” The state leadership under Gaurav Gogoi has been accused of overcentralising decision-making, leaving district and block-level leaders feeling ignored or redundant.

Gogoi termed the decision “unfortunate,” noting that the party had backed Bordoloi in the past. “Just two years ago, the Congress Party offered him the opportunity to contest the Lok Sabha ticket from Nagaon,” he said. “If our current Nagaon Member of Parliament wants Himanta Biswa Sarma to continue as the Chief Minister, that is his personal choice, which is rather unfortunate.” 

“There are always differences inside a party. I don’t think that a difference of opinion over one seat is the reason to leave and join a rival,” he added.

The BJP’s 2021 assembly performance, 60 of 126 seats, established it as the dominant force in state politics. The 2024 Lok Sabha elections reinforced that picture. Congress won only 3 of 14 parliamentary seats in Assam. For a leader calculating their political future, the question is stark: Is there a credible path to power from within this organisation, or is this a slow march toward irrelevance? 

Experts note that the current wave of defections is driven by two key factors: winnability and the BJP’s entrenched electoral dominance. Since 2014, the party has steadily expanded its footprint across constituencies, from panchayats to local bodies, pushing the Congress to the margins.

Dr Vikas Tripathi, political scientist at Gauhati University, argues that the party’s model here goes far beyond conventional electoral competition. “The BJP here operates more like a system than a party,” he explains. “It doesn’t just talk about winning 65 seats, it sets its sights on 100. That shift shows it is not merely about forming a government anymore, but about agenda-setting and shaping policy direction in the state.”

This systemic quality, Tripathi argues, is what makes the BJP’s absorptive pull so powerful. It does not merely offer party membership. It offers relevance in the form of safe seats, institutional access, and a clear position within a structure where power is increasingly centralised at the state level. 

Sarma himself has signalled that leaders who cross over can expect safe constituencies. Whether or not that promise is kept, its articulation is enough to shift the calculation for those on the margins. 

Tripathi points here to a deeper structural problem. “Despite being backed by leaders close to Rahul Gandhi, figures like Gaurav Gogoi have struggled to build a strong second line of leadership in a politically complex state,” he says.

 “The optics of former Congress leaders aligning with the BJP further weaken the party’s narrative and could be used against the the party.” While moments like the Jorhat bypoll win offered a temporary boost, the Congress has been unable to convert that into sustained recovery, partly due to delayed alliance-building and persistent organisational gaps.

The Question for Opposition

Congress’s decline also raises a question that extends beyond the party itself: what fills the vacuum?

The AIUDF under Badruddin Ajmal holds a specific electoral niche among Muslim voters in Lower Assam but cannot realistically expand into the wider anti-BJP constituency. Regional formations have limited reach. The fragmentation of opposition space, in the absence of a credible alternative, tends to benefit the party in power, not by inspiring enthusiasm, but by default.

Tripathi is direct about what a Congress revival would require. “For the Congress, a meaningful comeback in Assam is unlikely without regaining ground in Upper Assam, a region central to the state’s political arithmetic,” he says. “However, weakening the BJP remains a challenge given its dual advantage, strong state leadership under Sarma and control at the Centre. This Centre-state synergy reinforces the BJP’s grip, making it difficult for the opposition to break through.”

This dynamic, he adds, also explains why several regional players have aligned with the BJP, further isolating the Congress. “At this stage, the Congress is not merely contesting a rival party but an entrenched political system. Its challenges are therefore layered, organisational weaknesses, a limited social base, and broader structural disadvantages that have constrained its ability to mount an effective challenge.”

A Gradual Unravelling

Assam has seen dramatic political shifts before like the 2015 defection of Sarma and 20 MLAs to the BJP was a defining moment. And Sushmita Dev’s 2021 departure to the Trinamool Congress carried its own symbolic weight. But the current moment is seen less a rupture than a slow dissolution.

The rise of Sarma has been central to this shift, with analysts arguing that the Congress leadership fundamentally underestimated both his political strategy and organisational reach. Since 2016, the BJP’s growing dominance in Assam has been aided as much by its own organisational strength as by the weakness of the opposition. As Tripathi puts it, Assam now presents an expansive model, a “party-society,” where the BJP has extended its influence across institutions and everyday political life, well beyond the boundaries of electoral competition alone.

The Congress’s challenge, therefore, is no longer simply to win back voters. It is, more fundamentally, to convince its own people that it still represents a plausible political future. That is the harder task. “Congress is fighting a system, not just a party,” he says.