War, Economy And Netanyahu: The Issues Shaping Israel's 2026 Election

Israelis head to the polls on October 27 amid disputes over the October 7, 2023 attacks, military-service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews, judicial reform and the cost of sustaining the country's wars. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking another term, but his Likud party faces an opposition grouping that includes Yashar, the party led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot.

The election will determine the composition of Israel's 120-member parliament, the Knesset, and which parties can form the next government. Polls cited by Reuters put Netanyahu's bloc at 49–53 seats and the main opposition bloc at 50–54, leaving both short of the 61 seats needed for a majority. Smaller parties could therefore play a decisive role in coalition negotiations.

The vote is the sixth Israeli national election since 2019 and the first general election since the October 7 attacks and the subsequent wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. Beyond the question of who should lead the country, voters face a broader debate over security, accountability, the burden of military service, the judiciary and the economic consequences of prolonged conflict.

October 7 accountability and the security debate

The October 7 attacks remain central to the political debate. According to Al Jazeera, the Hamas-led assault killed about 1,200 people in Israel and resulted in approximately 250 people being taken captive. The attack exposed major security failures and was followed by Israel's war in Gaza, which has devastated much of the territory.

Al Jazeera reported that the government had yet to establish a state commission of inquiry into the events of October 7. The question of accountability remains a challenge for Netanyahu, who was prime minister when the attacks took place. His government has defended its security policies, while critics have demanded an independent investigation into the failures that allowed the assault to happen.

The election also follows Israel's military campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. Netanyahu has promised “total victory”, but Al Jazeera noted that Hamas and Hezbollah remain operational. The gap between the government's stated military objectives and the situation on the ground is part of the wider debate over whether its approach has delivered lasting security.

Netanyahu's record on security presents a mixed picture. Reuters reported that his military campaigns had restored his standing among some Israelis. However, a September survey by Israel's Institute for National Security Studies found that only 34% of respondents were satisfied with the government's handling of the Gaza war, compared with 61% who were satisfied with the military's handling of it.

Military-service exemptions and judicial reform

The exemption of many ultra-Orthodox Jewish men from compulsory military service has become a major source of political tension. Israel's Supreme Court ruled in 2024 that the previous legal basis for blanket exemptions had expired, leaving eligible Haredi men subject to military-service requirements. In September 2026, the court also struck down legislation passed in July that would have frozen enforcement proceedings against eligible Haredi men who failed to report for service. The broader dispute over exemptions remains unresolved.

Supporters of exemptions argue that full-time religious study should be protected, while critics say the arrangements place an unfair burden on other Israelis required to serve. The dispute also affects Netanyahu's coalition, as ultra-Orthodox parties have made exemptions and religious funding central demands in negotiations.

Reuters reported that only 53% of Haredi men were employed in 2025, compared with about 87% of non-Haredi Jewish men. It also cited estimates that subsidies and benefits to the Haredi community from central and local governments totalled 37.5 billion shekels ($12.1bn) in 2024, exceeding central government spending on hospitals, universities and colleges combined. These figures have brought employment, public spending and military obligations into the wider election debate.

Judicial reform is another unresolved issue. Netanyahu's government sought greater political influence over judicial appointments and limits on the Supreme Court's powers, prompting mass protests in 2023. Supporters of the changes argued that judges had accumulated excessive authority; opponents warned that the reforms would weaken checks on executive power.

Netanyahu's ongoing corruption trial is a separate issue in the debate over the judiciary. He faces charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust, which he denies.

Reuters reported that parliament passed legislation in March 2025 giving politicians greater influence over judicial appointments. The changes are due to take effect when the next Knesset begins its term after the October 2026 election. The dispute remains part of a broader argument over the balance of power between the government, parliament and the courts.

Cost of living, defence spending and the far right

Israel's economy has continued to grow, but the cost of sustaining military operations is putting pressure on public finances. Reuters reported that defence spending had doubled to around 8% of gross domestic product, while public debt was approaching 70% of GDP. The same report said high-tech accounted for 18% of GDP in 2025 and half of the economy's growth.

The economic picture is therefore uneven. Technology exports and defence-related demand have supported growth, but high living costs, unequal employment patterns and the concentration of tax revenue among a relatively small group of workers pose longer-term challenges. Reuters reported that workers in high-tech occupations, physicians and senior university academics together account for about 3% of Israel's population but contribute 93% of income-tax revenue.

Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and his Jewish Power party are also seeking to expand their support. Reuters reported that the appeal Ben-Gvir holds for some younger and first-time voters ahead of the election.

18-year-old first-time voter Gavriel Marmon said: “I used to think he was a bit crazy, but then I actually looked at what he was saying, and it all made sense.”

Ben-Gvir sponsored a law passed in March that makes hanging the default sentence for Palestinians convicted of lethal attacks against Israelis, a measure Reuters reported was likely to face a legal challenge. He has also supported expanding permits for Israelis to carry guns. Reuters reported that opinion polls suggested his Jewish Power party could win eight or more seats. That remains a polling projection, not a confirmed result, but such representation could give the party greater influence in coalition negotiations.

Coalition arithmetic and who gets to vote

Israel uses proportional representation: voters choose a party rather than an individual constituency candidate. Parties must win at least 3.25% of the national vote to enter the Knesset, and a government needs the support of at least 61 of its 120 members.

Israel's proportional representation system means that winning the most seats does not automatically secure the premiership. Parties must assemble a coalition with the support of at least 61 Knesset members to form a government, giving smaller parties potential leverage when neither major bloc wins a majority.

Palestinian citizens of Israel could also influence the result. Reuters reported that Arab political leaders were urging higher turnout, while polls suggested the opposition could fall short of a majority without support from Arab-led parties. Yashar leader Gadi Eisenkot has ruled out coalition ties with these parties, but Arab leaders hope they could still help support a government from outside the coalition after the election.

About 7.3 million Israeli citizens are eligible to vote. Palestinians living in Gaza and most Palestinians in the occupied West Bank cannot vote in Israel's parliamentary elections. Most Palestinians in occupied East Jerusalem hold Israeli residency rather than citizenship, allowing them to vote in municipal elections but not for the Knesset, according to Al Jazeera.

The October 27 election will determine which parties can assemble the 61 seats needed to form a government. If neither major bloc secures a majority, smaller parties could gain leverage in coalition negotiations, with their demands shaping the next government's approach to security, military service, judicial reform and public spending.