The Future Of US-India Relations

In the two years that I have served in New Delhi, the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has been asplendid partner in everything I have tried to do to further the US-India relationship. It has energeticallypromoted the flow of people and information between our countries, including showing consummate hospitality tomany visiting US dignitaries to India.

A key CII accomplishment during my time here has been the creation of the CII-Aspen Strategy Group, led by itsco-patrons Dr. Henry Kissinger and Mr. Ratan Tata. This strategic forum has allowed policy makers and theprivate sectors in both countries to discuss seriously how the burgeoning US-India bilateral relationship fitsinto the emerging international system of the Twenty-First Century.

In short, CII has been a steadfast, energetic, and inventive collaborator for the US Mission in India, for theBush Administration, and for the American public more broadly.

Friends and colleagues from CII, thank you for all your extraordinary efforts and for hosting me here today.

The Bad Old Days

When President George W. Bush took office in January 2001, India had not been on Washington's primary policyagenda, except for a persistent US preoccupation with India as a nuclear proliferation problem of the firstmagnitude. For years, succeeding American administrations had pressed India to sign the Non ProliferationTreaty. Over time, this campaign was reinforced by strong US pressure on New Delhi to avoid nuclear testing.Finally, the United States mounted an energetic effort to persuade India to sign the Comprehensive Test BanTreaty.

These three contentious subjects had dominated the substance of our bilateral exchanges since the 1980s,sometimes in frequent and quiet high-level meetings, sometimes in public admonitions from Washington thatsought to teach India what was best for its own national security. In response, India instinctively drew onits store of bitter anti-colonial rhetoric, simply substituting the United States in its pronouncements foranother proper noun.

Always in the foreground in recent years were the 1998 US nuclear sanctions against India and, as important,the Administration frame of mind that those sanctions represented. In this regard, India was not seen inWashington as an essential and cooperative part of solutions to major international problems. Rather, Indiawas one of the problems -- a nuclear renegade whose policies threatened the entire non-proliferation regime,and which must be brought to its senses so that its nuclear weapons program could be rolled back to zero. WithIndia's reaction to this continual American carping being defiance or worse, the two sides intermittentlyconducted what was mostly a dialogue of the deaf that did little to narrow the seeming unbridgeable gapbetween the two sides on these nuclear issues.

It is, therefore, hardly surprising that the rest of the government-to-government relationship between Indiaand America during this time was feeble. It was as if the largest and most powerful democracies had nothingelse to talk about except India's nuclear weapons program, and episodically, how to defuse the latest crisisin South Asia. There was little diplomatic cooperation between Washington and New Delhi. Virtually nomilitary-to-military interaction took place. No worthwhile intelligence exchanges were underway. Lawenforcement collaboration was puny. And the visits of senior American government representatives to India wereabout as rare as white Bengal tiger sightings in the wild.

President Bush's Big Idea

And then the extraordinary change began. I worked on the White House foreign policy transition team in themonth before President Bush's inauguration. During those weeks, current National Security Advisor CondoleezzaRice, her Deputy Steve Hadley and I continually discussed how we could help the new President quicklyimplement his big idea of transforming the US-India relationship on the enduring foundation of shareddemocratic values and congruent vital national interests.

This profound strategic and moral concept had been formed and articulated by then Governor Bush during hispresidential campaign. His big idea is that by working together more intensely than ever before, the UnitedStates and India, two vibrant democracies, can transform the very essence of our bilateral bonds and therebymake the world freer, more peaceful, and more prosperous. In short, President Bush has a global approach toUS-India relations, consistent with the rise of India as a world power.

When I first asked him in Austin Texas, in early 1999, about the reasons for his obvious and noteworthyinterest in India, he immediately responded, "a billion people in a functioning democracy. Isn't thatsomething? Isn't that something?" Knowing that Prime Minister Vajpayee believed that the United Statesand India were natural allies, we developed a roadmap in early January 2001 -- if I may use that term -- toaccomplish the strategic invigoration of the bilateral relationship, which we presented to the President andwhich he approved. We were on our way, with the two respective bureaucracies to be driven by top-downdirection by the two heads of government.

Two years later, US-India relations have achieved remarkable accomplishments based, on the US side, on aradically different approach to policy interaction with India. No longer does Washington regard India as anacute and abiding international proliferation risk that must be carefully managed and constantly lectured.Marking the first time in five years that a senior US official had come to India to discuss civil nuclearcollaboration, in February 2003 Nuclear Regulatory Commission Chairman Richard Meserve toured the TarapurAtomic Power Station and the Bhabha Atomic Research Center. There are ongoing parallel efforts regarding hightechnology transfer and civil space cooperation.

No longer does the United States fixate on India's nuclear weapons and missile programs. No more constantAmerican nagging nanny on these subjects, and no longer does the US largely view its relationship with Indiathrough a prism that must always include India's next-door neighbor. In short, the Bush Administrationperceives India as a strategic opportunity for the United States, not as an irritating recalcitrant. Indeed,as a diplomatic historian, I can think of few instances in history in which the conceptualization and corecomponents of a bilateral relationship - especially between two democracies -- have been so transformed in soshort a time by peaceful means.

Tangible Bilateral Advancement

As you know, the 1998 US sanctions against India are long gone, waived by President Bush. With more than 100Administration policymakers visiting India in the past two years, diplomatically we cooperate closelyconcerning Afghanistan; with respect to Nepal; and on other crucial issues related to this region, includingits real and potential sources of instability. We exchange views on the Gulf and the greater Middle East. Weclosely engage at the United Nations where we once conducted open warfare against one another. Washingtonworks with the Government of India to share ideas on how to tighten export controls for sensitive technologiesto be sure that they do not find their way into the hands of terrorists or, in some cases, their statesponsors. How things have changed for the better.

At the same time, and as you may have noticed, there have been some disagreements between India and the UnitedStates on the issue of Iraq. Let me only stress here that in my judgment, the two governments have managedthese differing perspectives with sensitivity and skill. It is no surprise that these two great democracieswith their dissimilar histories, their unlike domestic political constituencies, and their current, somewhatcontending, perceptions of how best to deal with the challenge of bringing democracy to a stable and viableIraq, should not yet have come to a meeting of the minds.

But this time, and contrary to the dismal decades of the Cold War, we have disagreed in our official exchangesconcerning Iraq without vitriol, without accusation, and without inflamed rhetoric. Instead, we always speakto one another regarding Iraq with respect, and in the context of our burgeoning bilateral ties. That, myfriends, is another important example of the increasing maturity of the transformed US-India relationship.

On the topical issue of Indian troops for Iraq, the United States had obviously hoped that India would take adifferent decision. But the transformation of US-India relations that I am describing will not be affected inthe slightest by this particular outcome of India's governmental democratic processes.

In the military-to-military dimension, we now have at least one joint military exercise or engagement eachmonth. These exercises cover a range of military skills and are focused on improving our capacity for combinedmilitary operations across the board -- by Special Forces against terrorists, maritime interdiction, searchand rescue, air lift support, logistics transport and airborne assault. In June and July 2002, the Indian NavyShips Sukanya and Sharda conducted escort patrols for American ships through the Malacca Straits, in supportof Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan. Knowing what they would be up against if they had to deal withthe Indian navy, the pirates sensibly stayed away. With American warships now routinely refueling in Chennaiand Mumbai, we saw last September the largest ever US-India naval exercise. We are in the planning stages fora fighter aircraft exchange. In 2003, more than 180 high-ranking leaders from the Indian security communitywill attend conferences sponsored by the US Department of Defense.

To put it directly, US military personnel like interacting with their Indian counterparts because they bothcome from professional cultures that believe that their central mission is to fight and win wars. How manyarmies can one say that about today? In short, Indian and American soldiers are warriors. That deepcommonality is not going to change in either military establishment. In US defense sales to India, we havegone from zero to almost $200 million in the past fourteen months, and are poised for far more ambitiousinteraction in this field, including the possible Indian purchase of defensive nuclear, biological andchemical equipment, Special Forces gear, and P3 Orion Maritime Patrol aircraft.

With respect to intelligence exchange and law enforcement, together we are going hard after the bad guys. TheFBI and US Customs Service have intensified beyond recognition their cooperative activities with Indiancolleagues to investigate terrorism, major crimes, money laundering, smuggling and customs violations. Weregularly share information to detect and counter potential terrorist attacks, and strengthen our respectivehomeland security. In October 2001, we signed a Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty, that we hope will soon comeinto force, to counter criminal activities more effectively. In April 2002, a US-India cybersecurity forum waslaunched to boost our bilateral cooperation in this domain.

The American Drug Enforcement Administration is in constant contact with the Indian Narcotics Control Bureauand the Central Bureau of Narcotics to exchange information and develop drug cases. In concert with theCentral Bureau of Narcotics, we are developing a methodology for predicting the size of legitimate opiumyields to help control diversion of opium from legal to illicit uses. And we are stepping up our joint effortsto deal with the problem of Trafficking in Persons, a serious problem in both the United States and in India.

Regarding the $145 million annual USAID program to India, our focus is on child, maternal and reproductivehealth; urban water and sanitation; institutional regulatory reform; disaster management; energy; and theenvironment. These all are important programs, but let me concentrate briefly on our crucial cooperativeeffort with the Government of India - the fight against HIV/AIDS. This is a global preoccupation of PresidentBush, as we have just seen on his recent trip to Africa. Since I feel so strongly about the subject of thespread of HIV/AIDS in India, may I repeat what I have said previously.

In the context of the transformed US-India relationship, the United States has made it a priority to work withIndia to address this calamity. Since 1998, the US Government has dedicated $63 million to combating HIV/AIDSin India. Over the next five years, the total American government contribution could be as high as $120million. In addition to this direct assistance, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and theNational Institutes of Health are funding joint US-India research projects and supporting scientificcollaboration to develop an HIV/AIDS vaccine. The US Government has pledged US $1 billion to the Global Fundto Fight HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria -- more than any other donor. India has already benefited from thefund, and we will continue to be strong advocates for India to receive additional funding.

To prevent a looming catastrophe, we must make our efforts to contain and defeat HIV/AIDS a much higherpriority. We must all act together to fight this battle -- and I mean all of us: India, the United States,other nations, donors, multilateral institutions, businesses, non-governmental organizations, foundations,health care workers, and all sectors of society. Time is against us. Complacency, timidity, ignorance, anddenial can weave a cloak of indifference and discrimination beneath which the ravages of HIV/AIDS thrive. Thismust not happen to India.

The Missing Piece

I would like now to say something about our bilateral economic ties. India's large and talented labor poolmakes it possible for it to become yet another "Asian miracle." Indeed, it already has shown itsmettle through spectacular accomplishments in information technology and software. As President Bush hasremarked to Prime Minister Vajpayee, human resources and intellectual capital are India's greatest asset. As anation, you have great DNA. This advantage will have a multiplier effect on the economy when second-generationpolicy reforms present businesses and consumers with the right incentives. There is so much pent-up dynamismat the micro level of India's economy that Indian entrepreneurs and workers will amplify the benefits of thesereforms as they are introduced.

An India that tosses its License Raj and red tape into History's dustbin would be ever more competitive intrade and the international capital markets, and that would bring increased American investment. An India thatvitalizes its economy would buy more US goods and services and, thereby, help improve the balance of trade,which heavily and increasingly flows in India's favor. And finally, an India that brings its people out ofpoverty at a more rapid rate through economic growth would be an inspiration to democracies everywhere, and tothe international community as a whole. This modernization of US-India economic interaction based on Indianeconomic reform is the missing piece in our transforming bilateral relationship.

On the geopolitical side, an India that takes full advantage of its extraordinary human capital to boost itseconomy would be a more effective strategic partner of the US in coming decades, including in promoting peace,prosperity, stability and freedom in Asia. An India that enters into a full-fledged series ofsecond-generation domestic economic reforms would inevitably play an increasingly influential role ininternational affairs across the board. That, too, would be beneficial for the United States.

In his book Diplomacy, Henry Kissinger writes that the international system of the Twenty-First Century"will contain at least six major power centers - the United States, Europe, China, Japan, Russia, andprobably India…"

It is up to India to make sure that it remains on that list. A Bright US-India Strategic Future

Close and collaborative strategic relations between America and India will further blossom over the long run,most importantly because of the convergence of our democratic values; our vital national interests; and ourrapidly expanding people-to-people ties.

Our shared democratic principles bind us - a common respect for individual freedom, the rule of law, theimportance of civil society, and peaceful inter-state relations.

With respect to overlapping vital national interests, my big three for the next decade and beyond are topromote peace and freedom in Asia; to combat international terrorism about which more later; and to slow thespread of weapons of mass destruction. It is difficult for me -- and this is a momentous strategic reality -to think of any nations other than India and the United States that will face to the same intense degree allthree of these intense challenges simultaneously in the period ahead. Let me repeat them. Advancing Asianstability based on democratic values. Confronting daily the threat of international terror. Slowing thefurther spread of weapons of mass destruction. This daunting trio will be an encompassing foundation forUS-India strategic cooperation for many years to come.