Numbers continue to be the key topic of political discussion in Madhya Pradesh after Jyotiraditya Scindia's resignation from the Congress, 18 years after he first joined it.
It is a matter of time before the Kamal Nath-led Congress gets the marching orders. The odds that were stacked against the BJP till a week ago now overwhelmingly are in its favour. With the resignation of 22 MLAs from the assembly, Congress is reduced to a minority in the state.
In the 230-member house, Congress has 114 MLAs, BJP 107, 2 BSP, 1 SP, 4 independents, 2 vacant seats. Halfway mark for the majority is 115.
But with the resignation of 22 MLAs, Congress’ number is reduced to 92 and the halfway mark for the majority – the magic number – is 104.
While the developments and surprises are still unfolding in Madhya Pradesh, here are the possible scenarios that the state might witness in the coming days.
Scenario 1: With the resignation of 19 Congress MLAs, Congress' strength has come down to 92. BJP at 107. Halfway mark has come down to 104. BJP could stake claim to form a government. Independents, BSP and SP may support the saffron party.
Scenario 2: Congress begins a reverse poaching scheme. Some BJP MLAs also resign. Both Congress and BJP go down to a similar legislative strength and reach out to BSP, SP, and independent legislators to reach the majority mark.
Scenario 3: Imposition of President's Rule due to political instability. By-elections for 19 seats may be announced and the results will determine who forms the next government.
Scenario 4: The House is dissolved and the state goes for mid-term polls.