Saturday, Jan 29, 2022

What’s Driven The Nifty Above 18,000

Nifty crosses 18,000 in 28 trading days translating into 5.88% gains

What’s Driven The Nifty Above 18,000
On October 11, Nifty moved up quite quickly, as against most other Asian indices that were trading in the red. -

On the back of large retail participation and the fear-of-missing-out mindset, the Nifty index has made a swift movement of 1,000 points in just 28 trading days. The Nifty crossed 17,000 on August 31, 2021. The financial sector, with 37.7% weightage along with power 1.73% and telecom sector with 2.13%, played a major role in helping the Nifty move to a new level. Cyclical sectors were at the forefront in this 1,000 points upmove.

On October 11, Nifty moved up quite quickly, as against most other Asian indices that were trading in the red. The other exceptions apart from Nifty were Hang Seng and Nikkei.

The sterling performance on October 11 came on the back of stocks that are directly or indirectly linked with energy generation. These include Coal India, Power Grid, NTPC, ONGC, and Hindalco.

Auto companies, too, played a pivotal role, with Tata Motors (Auto) and Maruti among the top three gainers on the Nifty.  According to the NSE website, 167 companies made a new 52-week high, while just four touched their 52-week low, on October 11.

But if Monday’s market movement is any indication for future direction, then traders must take a cautious stance as TCS which is one of the top five companies on the Nifty, in terms of weightage, went down by 6.29 per cent on the back of a disappointing set of numbers. This indicates that companies that will disappoint on the results front will be badgered down heavily.

In  FY21, the Nifty companies cumulatively earned Rs 4.35 lakh crore and registered an earnings per share (EPS) of Rs 554, whereas according to Bloomberg Consensus estimate Nifty companies are expected to earn Rs 5.85 lakh crore, which translates into an EPS of Rs 746 per share, reflecting a gain of 34.6 per cent on EPS. It is rarely that Nifty companies are expected to log such high EPS growth. The high expectation is exceptional and there is very little scope for disappointment on earnings.

To be sure, information technology (IT) as a sector holds the second-highest weightage in the index (17.41%).  Any weakness in the IT sector may drag down the index going forward, says an analyst, who did not want to be named.

Speaking with Outlook Money, Vijay Bhambwani, head of research, behavioural technical analysis, Equitymaster, says the 1,000 point index upmove in just 40 calendar days is a clear sign of investors’ enthusiasm.

“FOMO is the most strong behavioural pattern among investors nowadays and till the time it remains strong you will see a strong upmove in the indices,” he said.


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