Benazir Bhutto Assassinated

The shocking assassination of Mrs Benazir Bhutto at Rawalpindi on December27, 2007, is likely to have been the outcome of a conspiracy involving anti-US,pro-Al Qaeda jihadi elements, the Zia-ul-haq loyalists and junior members of theArmy and possibly the Air Force.

Since 2003, there have been a number of terrorist incidents in Rawalpindi--includingthe two attempts to kill President Pervez Musharraf in December, 2003, thefiring of rockets by unidentified elements from a park last year, the attempt to fire at Musharraf's plane with an anti-aircraft gun earlier this yearfrom the terrace of a building, two suicide attacks at the Army's GeneralHeadquarters and two outside the offices of the Inter-Services Intelligence after the commando raid into the Lal Masjid of Islamabad in July,2007.

The two attempts to kill Musharraf were found to have been the result of aconspiracy involving Al Qaeda (Abu Faraj al-Libi, now in the Guantanamo Baydetention centre), the Jaish-e-Mohammad and junior officers of the Army and AirForce. In the other incidents also, involvement of junior officers of the Armyand Air Force was suspected. In connection with the rocket attacks, the son of aretired Brigadier was arrested.

Khalid Sheikh Mohammad, who orchestrated the 9/11 terrorist strikes in theUS, was arrested in the Rawalpindi house of a woman office-bearer of theJamaat-e-Islami, having a relative in a Signals regiment of the Army, who wasarrested. All these incidents indicated a strong penetration of Al Qaeda andpro-Al Qaeda organisations into the lower and middle levels of the armedforces personnel stationed in Rawalpindi. Rashid Rauf, a Mirpuri resident of theUK, who was a prime suspect in the case involving an Al Qaeda attempt to blow up10-US bound planes in the UK last year, escaped last week while being taken froma court in Rawalpindi to his jail. Complicity of security personnel in hisescape was suspected.

Neither the ISI nor the IB nor the Police had been able to thoroughlyinvestigate these cases and establish the identities of those involved. Only theidentities of the junior officials involved in the attempts to kill Musharrafwere established. They were arrested and court-martialled. But the authoritieswere not able to establish the extent of the penetration of Al Qaeda and pro-AlQaeda elements into the Armed Forces.

Since Benazir returned from exile on October 18,2007, the Zia loyalists inthe Government and among the retired officers of the army and the ISI werecarrying on a bitter campaign against her. They were determined to see that shedid not return to power in the elections of January 8,2008. Benazir herself wasworried that Brig. (retd) Ijaz Shah, the Director of the IB, was ill-disposedtowards her and had repeatedly complained in public that there could be a threatto her security from the IB.

All the jihadi organisations were opposed to her coming to power firstly,because she was a woman and secondly, because of her statements that she wouldallow US troops to hunt for Osama bin Laden in Pakistani territory and let theInternational Atomic Energy Agency interrogate A.Q.Khan, the nuclear scientist.

Only on December 26, 2007, after her visit to Peshawar, where there were someexplosions coinciding with her visit, she had expressed her dissatisfaction withthe security arrangements for her. She complained that the electronic jammersissued to her staff for protection against remote-control devices were faulty.

Her repeated pleas to seek the help of Western intelligence agencies for theinvestigation into the blast at Karachi on October 18, 2007, from which shenarrowly escaped and to let her hire private security guards from the West wereturned down by Musharraf.

There is likely to be widespread anti-Musharraf and anti-Army disturbances inSindh and possibly southern Punjab, her traditional strongholds, which may makeit difficult to hold the elections and for Musharraf to continue in powerfor long.